Opinion polling for the United States House of Representatives elections, 2008

Opinion polling for the United States House of Representatives elections, 2008

This article provides a collection of scientific, state-wide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the United States of America House of Representatives elections, 2008.

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Contents

Opinion polling

AlabamaAlabama

2nd District
Incumbent: Terry Everett(R)-Retiring

Winner-Bobby Bright (D)

Source Date Democrat: Bobby Bright Republican: Jay Love
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 20-22, 2008 45% 47%
Anzalone Lizst (D) October 5-7, 2008 46% 45%
Survey USA August 26-28, 2008 39% 56%
Capital Survey Research Center August 6-7, 2008 47% 37%
Anzalone Liszt (D) August 3-6, 2008 50% 40%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) July 21-22, 2008 39% 41%
Anzalone Liszt (D) October 2-4, 2007 46% 27%

3rd District
Incumbent: Mike Rogers(R)

Winner-Mike Rogers (R)

Source Date Democrat: Joshua Segall Republican: Mike Rogers
Capital Survey Research Center September 30-October 1, 2008 36% 45%
Capital Survey Research Center August 19-21, 2008 33% 54%

5th District§
Incumbent: Bud Cramer(D)-Retiring

Winner-Parker Griffith (D)

Source Date Democrat: Parker Griffith Republican: Wayne Parker
Anzalone Lizst (D) October 12-14, 2008 46% 38%
Capital Survey Research Center August 19-21, 2008 45% 40%
Capital Survey Research Center April 1, 2008 48% 32%

AlaskaAlaska

At Large District
Incumbent: Don Young(R)

Winner-Don Young (R)

Source Date Democrat: Ethan Berkowitz Republican: Don Young
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 14-16, 2008 50% 44%
Ivan Moore Research September 20-22, 2008 49% 44%
Fairleigh Dickinson University September 17-21, 2008 47% 41%
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 15-17, 2008 53% 39%
Ivan Moore Research August 30-September 2, 2008 54% 37%
Ivan Moore Research August 9-12, 2008 51% 41%
Ivan Moore Research July 18-22, 2008 52% 37%
Research 2000/Daily Kos July 14-16, 2008 51% 40%
Research 2000/Daily Kos May 12-14, 2008 50% 40%
Hellenthal & Associates May 6-10, 2008 58% 38%
Craciun Research Group (D) October 27-November 2, 2007 50% 35%

ArizonaArizona

3rd District
Incumbent: John Shadegg(R)

Winner-John Shadegg (R)

Source Date Democrat: Bob Lord Republican: John Shadegg
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 20-22, 2008 40% 50%
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 6-8, 2008 39% 48%
Anzalone Lizst (D) October 6-8, 2008 45% 44%

5th District
Incumbent: Harry Mitchell(D)

Winner-Harry Mitchell (D)

Source Date Democrat: Harry Mitchell Republican: David Schweikert
Bennett, Petts & Normington (D) March 9-11, 2008 50% 24%

8th District
Incumbent: Gabrielle Giffords(D)

Winner-Gabrielle Giffords (D)

Source Date Democrat: Gabrielle Giffords Republican: Tim Bee
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner (D) June 18-22, 2008 59% 35%
Arizona Opinion (R) May 12-23, 2008 47% 40%
Summit Group (R) December 3-4, 2007 36% 30%

CaliforniaCalifornia

4th District
Incumbent: John Doolittle(R)-retiring

Winner-Tom McClintock (R)

Source Date Democrat: Charlie Brown Republican: Tom McClintock
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 20-22, 2008 48% 42%
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 23-25, 2008 46% 41%
Val Smith (R) September 22-24, 2008 39% 47%
Beneson Strategy Group (D) August 21-24, 2008 43% 41%
Beneson Strategy Group (D) May 14-15, 2008 42% 40%

11th District
Incumbent: Jerry McNerney(D)

Winner-Jerry McNerney (D)

Source Date Democrat: Jerry McNerney Republican: Dean Andal
Survey USA October 14-15, 2008 52% 41%

26th District
Incumbent: David Dreier(R)

Winner-David Dreier (R)

Source Date Democrat: Russ Warner Republican: David Dreier
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) July 15-16, 2008 37% 49%

50th District
Incumbent: Brian Bilbray(R)

Winner-Brian Bilbray (R)

Source Date Democrat: Nick Liebham Republican: Brian Bilbray Libertarian: Wayne Dunlap
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner (D) October 13-14, 2008 42% 44% 5%
Tarrance Group (R) October 12-13, 2008 35% 48%

ColoradoColorado

4th District§
Incumbent: Marilyn Musgrave(R)

Winner-Betsy Markey (D)

Source Date Democrat: Betsy Markey Republican: Marilyn Musgrave
Grove Insight (D) September 8-10, 2008 47% 38%
Survey USA August 22-24, 2008 50% 43%
Bennett, Petts & Normington (D) May 13-15, 2008 43% 36%

ConnecticutConnecticut

2nd District
Incumbent: Joe Courtney(D)

Winner-Joe Courtney (D)

Source Date Democrat: Joe Courtney Republican: Sean Sullivan
Connecticut Association of Realtors September 8, 2008 52% 20%

4th District§
Incumbent: Chris Shays(R)

Winner-Jim Himes (D)

Source Date Democrat: Jim Himes Republican: Chris Shays
University of Connecticut October 9-15, 2008 44% 44%
Survey USA October 13-14, 2008 48% 45%
Sacred Heart University September 22-25, 2008 31% 41%
Feldman Group (D) September 17-18, 2008 45% 45%
Connecticut Association of Realtors September 8, 2008 31% 52%

DelawareDelaware

At Large District
Incumbent: Mike Castle(R)

Source Date Democrat: Karen Hartley-Nagel Republican: Mike Castle
West Chester University October 6-8, 2008 27% 66%
Fairleigh Dickinson University September 17-21, 2008 28% 62%

FloridaFlorida

8th District
Incumbent: Ric Keller(R)

Winner-Alan Grayson (D)

Source Date Democrat: Alan Grayson Republican: Ric Keller
Kitchens Group September 3-6, 2008 44% 40%

9th District
Incumbent: Gus Bilirakis(R)

Winner-Gus Bilirakis (R)

Source Date Democrat: Bill Mitchell Republican: Gus Bilirakis
Momentum Analysis September 20-22, 2008 25% 45%

10th District
Incumbent: Bill Young(R)

Winner-Bill Young (R)

Source Date Democrat: Bob Hackworth Republican: Bill Young
Anzalone Lizst September 7-11, 2008 33% 50%

13th District
Incumbent: Vern Buchanan(R)

Winner-Vern Buchanan (R)

Source Date Democrat: Christine Jennings Republican: Vern Buchanan
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 20-22, 2008 34% 45%
Survey USA September 30-October 1, 2008 33% 49%
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 23-25, 2008 31% 43%
Feldman Group September 22-23, 2008 40% 44%
Public Opinion Strategies March 5-6, 2008 37% 53%

16th District
Incumbent: Tim Mahoney(D)

Winner-Tom Rooney (R)

Source Date Democrat: Tim Mahoney Republican: Tom Rooney
Tarrance Group October 15-16, 2008 29% 55%
Tarrance Group September 7-8, 2008 48% 41%

18th District
Incumbent: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen(R)

Winner-Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)

Source Date Democrat: Annette Taddeo Republican: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
Lake Research October 8-21, 2008 41% 48%
Telemundo September 27-October 1, 2008 35% 48%
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 23-25, 2008 36% 53%
Bendixen & Associates June 6-22, 2008 31% 58%

21st District
Incumbent: Lincoln Diaz-Balart(R)

Winner-Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)

Source Date Democrat: Raul Martinez Republican: Lincoln Diaz-Balart
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 20-23, 2008 44% 45%
Telemundo October 2-8, 2008 43% 48%
Survey USA August 24-26, 2008 48% 46%
Bendixen & Associates June 6-22, 2008 37% 41%

24th District
Incumbent: Tom Feeney(R)

Winner-Suzanne Kosmas (D)

Source Date Democrat: Suzanne Kosmas Republican: Tom Feeney
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner October 14-15, 2008 58% 35%
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner October 2-8, 2008 58% 35%
Hamilton Group September 11-14, 2008 42% 43%

25th District
Incumbent: Mario Diaz-Balart(R)

Winner-Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

Source Date Democrat: Joe Garcia Republican: Mario Diaz-Balart
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 20-22, 2008 43% 46%
Hamilton Campaigns October 8-9, 2008 42% 45%
Telemundo September 27-October 1, 2008 41% 43%
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 23-25, 2008 41% 45%
Bendixen & Associates June 6-22, 2008 39% 44%

IdahoIdaho

1st District
Incumbent: Bill Sali(R)

Winner-Walt Minnick (D)

Source Date Democrat: Walt Minnick Republican: Bill Sali
Survey USA October 18-19, 2008 51% 45%
Harstad Strategic Research September 25-28, 2008 44% 38%
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 17-18, 2008 35% 46%
Harstad Strategic Research September 9-11, 2008 43% 38%

IllinoisIllinois

6th District
Incumbent: Peter Roskam(R)

Winner-Peter Roskam (R)

Source Date Democrat: Jill Morgenthaler Republican: Peter Roskam
Public Opinion Strategies July 20-22, 2008 29% 59%

10th District
Incumbent: Mark Kirk(R)

Winner-Mark Kirk (R)

Source Date Democrat: Dan Seals Republican: Mark Kirk
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 20-22, 2008 49% 43%
Bennett, Petts & Normington October 15-16, 2008 41% 47%
Survey USA October 4-5, 2008 52% 44%
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 30-October 1, 2008 38% 44%
McLaughlin & Associates September 10-11, 2008 29% 51%
Global Strategy Group August 17-19, 2008 39% 46%
McLaughlin & Associates June 9, 2008 32% 53%
McLaughlin & Associates March 14-16, 2008 29% 50%
Garin-Hart-Yang February 7-8, 2008 39% 46%

11th District
Incumbent: Jerry Weller(R)-retiring

Winner-Debbie Halvorson (D)

Source Date Democrat: Debbie Halvorson Republican: Martin Ozinga Green: Jason Wallace
Survey USA October 20-21, 2008 50% 37%
Bennett, Petts & Normington October 15-16, 2008 50% 29%
Anzalone Liszt (D) October 10-13, 2008 48% 29% 5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) September 17-18, 2008 38% 36%
Anzalone Liszt (D) September 14-16, 2008 43% 35% 6%
Anzalone-Liszt (D) May 18-22, 2008 43% 32% 6%

18th District
Incumbent: Ray LaHood(R)-retiring

Winner-Aaron Schock (R)

Source Date Democrat: Colleen Callahan Republican: Aaron Schock
Public Opinion Strategies August 18-20, 2008 27% 56%

IndianaIndiana

2nd District
Incumbent: Joe Donnelly(D)

Winner-Joe Donnelly (D)

Source Date Democrat: Joe Donnelly Republican: Luke Puckett
South Bend Tribune/
Research 2000		 September 29-30, 2008 53% 35%

3rd District
Incumbent: Mark Souder(R)

Winner-Mark Souder (R)

Source Date Democrat: Mike Montagano Republican: Mark Souder
Howey Gauge October 23-24, 2008 44% 41%
Research 2000 October 16-18, 2008 40% 45%
Winston Group October 15-16, 2008 41% 50%
Cooper and Secrest October 6-7, 2008 39% 44%
Cooper and Secrest April 24-27, 2008 28% 55%

4th District
Incumbent: Steve Buyer(R)

Winner-Steve Buyer (R)

Source Date Democrat: Nels Ackerson Republican: Steve Buyer
Journal & Courier September 12-14, 2008 36% 38%

7th District
Incumbent: André Carson(D)

Winner-André Carson (D)

Source Date Democrat: André Carson Republican: Gabrielle Campo
Research 2000/WISH-TV October 24-28, 2008 53% 38%
Research 2000/WISH-TV September 29-October 3, 2008 51% 35%

9th District
Incumbent: Baron Hill(D)

Winner-Baron Hill (D)

Source Date Democrat: Baron Hill Republican: Mike Sodrel
Survey USA October 22-23, 2008 54% 39%
Survey USA October 4-5, 2008 53% 38%
Research 2000/WISH-TV September 29-October 3, 2008 49% 37%
Survey USA September 8-10, 2008 50% 39%
Survey USA July 28-30, 2008 49% 42%
Survey USA June 16-18, 2008 51% 40%

IowaIowa

4th District
Incumbent: Tom Latham(R)

Winner-Tom Latham (R)

Source Date Democrat: Becky Greenwald Republican: Tom Latham
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 20-22, 2008 42% 47%

KansasKansas

1st District
Incumbent: Jerry Moran(R)

Winner-Jerry Moran (R)

Source Date Democrat: James Bordonaro Republican: Jerry Moran
Survey USA August 17-19, 2008 13% 77%

2nd District§
Incumbent: Nancy Boyda(D)

Winner-Lynn Jenkins (R)

Source Date Democrat: Nancy Boyda Republican: Lynn Jenkins
Survey USA August 19-21, 2008 50% 43%
Anzalone Lizst May 12-15, 2008 57% 27%

4th District
Incumbent: Todd Tiahrt(R)

Winner-Todd Tiahrt (R)

Source Date Democrat: Donald Betts Republican: Todd Tiahrt
Survey USA October 20-21, 2008 29% 62%
Survey USA August 17-19, 2008 30% 61%

KentuckyKentucky

2nd District
Incumbent: Ron Lewis(R)-retiring

Winner-Brett Guthrie (R)

Source Date Democrat: David Boswell Republican: Brett Guthrie
Survey USA October 27-28, 2008 43% 53%
Survey USA October 21-22, 2008 42% 51%
Survey USA October 15-16, 2008 42% 51%
Survey USA September 24-25, 2008 43% 49%
Garin-Hart-Yang August 23-25, 2008 41% 33%
Survey USA June 27-29, 2008 47% 44%

3rd District
Incumbent: John Yarmuth(D)

Winner-John Yarmuth (D)

Source Date Democrat: John Yarmuth Republican: Anne Northup
Survey USA October 21-22, 2008 57% 41%
Survey USA October 14-15, 2008 57% 41%
Survey USA September 5-7, 2008 53% 45%
Survey USA July 18-20, 2008 53% 43%
Survey USA June 6-8, 2008 57% 40%
Voter/Consumer Research June 4-8, 2008 51% 43%

4th District
Incumbent: Geoff Davis(R)

Winner-Geoff Davis (R)

Source Date Democrat: Michael Kelley Republican: Geoff Davis
Survey USA October 26- October 27, 2008 37% 58%
Survey USA September 30- October 1, 2008 36% 58%
Survey USA June 28-30, 2008 41% 54%

LouisianaLouisiana

4th District§
Incumbent: Jim McCrery(R) - Retiring

Winner-John Fleming (R)

Source Date Democrat: Paul Carmouche Republican: John Fleming Independent: Chester "Catfish" Kelley
Survey USA November 17-18,2008 45% 47% 3%

6th District§
Incumbent: Don Cazayoux(D)

Winner-Bill Cassidy (R)

Source Date Democrat: Don Cazayoux Republican: Bill Cassidy Independent: Michael Jackson
Bennett, Petts & Normington October 8-9, 2008 46% 29% 9%
Anzalone Lizst September 17-21, 2008 48% 32% 9%

MaineMaine

1st District
Incumbent: Tom Allen(D)-Retiring

Winner-Chellie Pingree (D)

Source Date Democrat: Chellie Pingree Republican: Charlie Summers
Moore Information September 21-22, 2008 44% 33%

MarylandMaryland

1st District
Incumbent: Wayne Gilchrest(R)-Defeated in Primary

Winner-Frank Kratovil (D)

Source Date Democrat: Frank Kratovil Republican: Andy Harris
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 20-22, 2008 40% 44%
Garin, Hart, & Yang October 6, 2008 43% 41%
Grove Insight September 9-12, 2008 36% 36%
Finkelstein & Associates July 15, 2008 28% 44%
Garin, Hart, & Yang May 23-24, 2008 34% 43%
Moore Information January 15-16, 2008 22% 37%

MichiganMichigan

7th District§
Incumbent: Tim Walberg(R)

Winner-Mark Schauer (D)

Source Date Democrat: Mark Schauer Republican: Tim Walberg
Beneson Strategy Group October 6-7, 2008 43% 35%
Myers Research & Strategic Services October 5-6, 2008 46% 36%
Myers Research & Strategic Services September 23-24, 2008 42% 36%
EPIC-MRA August 20-22, 2008 40% 43%
National Research July 8-9, 2008 31% 47%
Myers Research & Strategic Services May 8-15, 2008 37% 40%
EPIC-MRA February 27-March 2, 2008 40% 51%

9th District§
Incumbent: Joe Knollenberg(R)

Winner-Gary Peters (D)

Source Date Democrat: Gary Peters Republican: Joe Knollenberg
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner October 6-7, 2008 43% 40%
Mitchell Research September 30-October 2, 2008 43% 43%
Grove Insight August 17-19, 2008 41% 37%

MinnesotaMinnesota

1st District
Incumbent: Tim Walz(D)

Winner-Tim Walz (D)

Source Date Democrat: Tim Walz Republican: Brian Davis
Tarrance Group September 17-18, 2008 50% 32%
Beneson Strategy Group May 17-19, 2008 60% 20%

3rd District§
Incumbent: Jim Ramstad(R)-Retiring

Winner-Erik Paulsen (R)

Source Date Democrat: Ashwin Madia Republican: Erik Paulsen
Survey USA October 26-27, 2008 44% 45%
Survey USA October 6-7, 2008 46% 43%
Bennett, Petts & Normington September 29-30, 2008 44% 39%
Survey USA August 26-August 28, 2008 41% 44%
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner February 27-March 2, 2008 40% 43%

6th District
Incumbent: Michele Bachmann(R)

Winner-Michele Bachmann (R)

Source Date Democrat: Elwyn Tinklenberg Republican: Michele Bachmann
University of Minnesota/
Minnesota Public Radio/
University of Connecticut		 October 21-23, 2008 45% 43%
Survey USA October 21-22, 2008 47% 44%
Public Opinion Strategies October 12-13, 2008 33% 44%
Grove Insight October 10-12, 2008 38% 42%

MississippiMississippi

1st District
Incumbent: Travis Childers(D)

Winner-Travis Childers (D)

Source Date Democrat: Travis Childers Republican: Greg Davis
Anzalone Lizst September 7-10, 2008 51% 39%

MissouriMissouri

6th District
Incumbent: Sam Graves(R)

Source Date Democrat: Kay Barnes Republican: Sam Graves
Survey USA October 27-28, 2008 36% 54%
Survey USA October 13-14, 2008 40% 51%
Survey USA September 17-18, 2008 42% 51%
Survey USA July 30-31, 2008 44% 48%
Survey USA May 16-18, 2008 39% 49%

9th District
Incumbent: Kenny Hulshof(R)-retiring

Source Date Democrat: Judy Baker Republican: Blaine Luetkemeyer
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 20-22, 2008 42% 47%
Global Strategy Group October 5-7, 2008 40% 36%
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 17-18, 2008 40% 49%
Survey USA September 1-2, 2008 38% 50%
Momentum Analysis August 12-14, 2008 41% 39%

MontanaMontana

At Large District
Incumbent: Denny Rehberg(R)

Source Date Democrat: John Driscoll Republican: Denny Rehberg
Public Policy Polling November 2, 2008 35% 60%

NebraskaNebraska

2nd District
Incumbent: Lee Terry(R)

Source Date Democrat: Jim Esch Republican: Lee Terry
Anzalone Liszt October 13-15, 2008 46% 47%
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 6-8, 2008 39% 49%
Anzalone Liszt July 27-August 2, 2008 38% 47%

NevadaNevada

2nd District
Incumbent: Dean Heller(R)

Source Date Democrat: Jill Derby Republican: Dean Heller
Research 2000 October 3-6, 2008 41% 48%
Research 2000 August 18-20, 2008 42% 47%
Mason Dixon June 9-11, 2008 39% 53%

3rd District§
Incumbent: Jon Porter(R)

Source Date Democrat: Dina Titus Republican: Jon Porter
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 20-22, 2008 47% 45%
Public Opinion Strategies September 23-24, 2008 39% 41%
Anzalone Lizst September 21-24, 2008 46% 39%
Anzalone Liszt July 23-28, 2008 50% 43%
Mason Dixon June 9-11, 2008 42% 45%

New HampshireNew Hampshire

1st District§
Incumbent: Carol Shea-Porter(D)

Source Date Democrat: Carol Shea-Porter Republican: Jeb Bradley
University of New Hampshire October 26-28, 2008 44% 42%
Boston Globe/
University of New Hampshire		 October 18-22, 2008 44% 39%
Concord Monitor/Research 2000 October 17-19, 2008 48% 43%
Concord Monitor/Research 2000 October 4-5, 2008 48% 43%
Survey USA October 4-5, 2008 50% 41%
St. Anselm College September 25-30, 2008 35% 42%
Concord Monitor/Research 2000 September 22-24, 2008 44% 43%
University of New Hampshire September 14-21, 2008 42% 45%
University of New Hampshire July 11-20, 2008 40% 46%
University of New Hampshire April 25-30, 2008 39% 45%

2nd District
Incumbent: Paul Hodes(D)

Source Date Democrat: Paul Hodes Republican: Jennifer Horn
Boston Globe/
University of New Hampshire		 October 18-22, 2008 51% 25%
Concord Monitor/Research 2000 October 17-19, 2008 49% 35%
Concord Monitor/Research 2000 October 4-5, 2008 49% 35%
St. Anselm College September 25-30, 2008 35% 18%
Concord Monitor/Research 2000 September 22-24, 2008 47% 34%
University of New Hampshire September 14-21, 2008 38% 26%
Anzalone Lizst September 14-18, 2008 50% 32%
Public Opinion Strategies September 16-17, 2008 43% 39%
University of New Hampshire July 11-20, 2008 43% 23%
University of New Hampshire April 25-30, 2008 52% 25%

New JerseyNew Jersey

1st District
Incumbent: Rob Andrews(D)

Source Date Democrat: Rob Andrews Republican: Dale Glading
Zogby International September 18-20, 2008 73% 16%

2nd District
Incumbent: Frank LoBiondo(R)

Source Date Democrat: Tom Kurkowski Republican: Frank LoBiondo
Zogby International September 18-20, 2008 26% 62%

3rd District§
Incumbent: H. James Saxton(R)- Retiring

Source Date Democrat: Jon Adler Republican: Chris Myers
Grove Insight October 15-16, 2008 42% 34%
Grove Insight October 2-3, 2008 38% 34%
Monmouth University September 30-October 2, 2008 41% 44%
Zogby International September 18-20, 2008 37% 39%
McLaughlin & Associates September 8-9, 2008 29% 33%

5th District
Incumbent: Scott Garrett(R)

Source Date Democrat: Dennis Shulman Republican: Scott Garrett
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 20-22, 2008 40% 47%
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 17-18, 2008 34% 49%

7th District§
Incumbent: Mike Ferguson(R)- Retiring

Source Date Democrat: Linda Stender Republican: Leonard Lance
Benenson Strategy Group October 8-9, 2008 40% 31%
Monmouth University September 30-October 2, 2008 39% 43%
Anzalone Lizst August 20-25, 2008 36% 33%
National Research June 24-25, 2008 35% 42%

New MexicoNew Mexico

1st District§
Incumbent: Heather Wilson(R)- Retiring

Source Date Democrat: Martin Heinrich Republican: Darren White
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner September 22-23, 2008 50% 46%
Survey USA August 26-28, 2008 51% 46%
Public Opinion Strategies July 22-23, 2008 41% 47%
Greenberg, Quinlan & Rosner June 29-July 2, 2008 47% 44%
Public Opinion Strategies October 8-9, 2007 33% 51%

2nd District
Incumbent: Steve Pearce(R)- Retiring

Source Date Democrat: Harry Teague Republican: Ed Tinsley
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 30-October 1, 2008 47% 43%
Hamilton Campaigns September 2-5, 2008 46% 41%

New YorkNew York

25th District
Incumbent: James Walsh(R)-Retiring

Source Date Democrat: Dan Maffei Republican: Dale Sweetland
Kiley & Company October 2-3, 2008 49% 31%
Jeff Stonecash April 26-27, 2008 37% 36%

26th District
Incumbent: Tom Reynolds(R)-Retiring

Source Date Democrat: Alice Kryzan Republican: Christopher Lee
Survey USA October 28-29, 2008 34% 48%
Survey USA September 24-25, 2008 37% 48%
Brilliant Corners September 15-17, 2008 39% 29%

29th District§
Incumbent: Randy Kuhl(R)

Source Date Democrat: Eric Massa Republican: Randy Kuhl
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 7-8, 2008 49% 42%
Benenson Strategy Group October 6, 2008 47% 42%
Survey USA October 5, 2008 51% 44%
McLaughlin & Associates January 27-28, 2008 26% 46%

North CarolinaNorth Carolina

8th District§
Incumbent: Robin Hayes(R)

Source Date Democrat: Larry Kissell Republican: Robin Hayes
Survey USA October 4-5, 2008 49% 41%
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner September 28-29, 2008 54% 43%
Public Opinion Strategies September 23-25, 2008 46% 43%
Public Policy Polling August 25-27, 2008 39% 44%
Public Opinion Strategies August 4-5, 2008 40% 50%
Public Policy Polling July 2-5, 2008 36% 43%
Anzalone Liszt June 8-14, 2008 45% 43%
Service Employees International Union/
Center for American Progress/
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner		 November 13-15, 2007 49% 47%
Anzalone Liszt June 16-20, 2007 43% 45%

10th District
Incumbent: Patrick McHenry(R)

Source Date Democrat: Daniel Johnson Republican: Patrick McHenry
Public Policy Polling June 21-22, 2008 38% 49%

OhioOhio

1st District§
Incumbent: Steve Chabot(R)

Source Date Democrat: Steve Driehaus Republican: Steve Chabot
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 30-October 1, 2008 46% 44%
Survey USA September 19-21, 2008 44% 46%
Public Opinion Strategies June 30-July 2, 2008 37% 50%

2nd District
Incumbent: Jean Schmidt(R)

Source Date Democrat: Victoria Wulsin Republican: Jean Schmidt
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 30-October 1, 2008 39% 46%
Momentum Analysis September 29-30, 2008 36% 37%
Survey USA September 19-21, 2008 40% 48%
Tarrance Group September 8-9, 2008 36% 52%
Momentum Analysis June 24-26, 2008 33% 41%
Tarrance Group March 11-12, 2008 33% 51%

7th District
Incumbent: Dave Hobson(R)-retiring

Source Date Democrat: Sharen Neuhardt Republican: Steve Austria
Tarrance Group October 5-6, 2008 32% 56%
Cooper and Secrest May 25-June 2, 2008 35% 41%

15th District§
Incumbent: Deborah Pryce(R)-retiring

Source Date Democrat: Mary Jo Kilroy Republican: Steve Stivers
Survey USA October 25-26, 2008 47% 41%
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner September 30-October 1, 2008 44% 36%
Survey USA September 19-21, 2008 47% 42%
Survey USA August 2-4, 2008 47% 44%
Beneson Strategy Group May 20-22, 2008 47% 37%

16th District§
Incumbent: Ralph Regula(R)-retiring

Source Date Democrat: John Boccieri Republican: Kurt Schuring
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 30-October 1, 2008 48% 38%
Survey USA September 19-21, 2008 49% 41%
Tarrance Group July 8-9, 2008 34% 40%

OregonOregon

5th District
Incumbent: Darlene Hooley(D)-retiring

Source Date Democrat: Kurt Schrader Republican: Mike Erickson
SurveyUSA October 27–October 28, 2008 55% 31%
SurveyUSA October 13–October 14, 2008 51% 38%

PennsylvaniaPennsylvania

3rd District§
Incumbent: Phil English(R)

Source Date Democrat: Kathy Dahlkemper Republican: Phil English
Public Opinion Strategies October 22-23, 2008 45% 47%
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 6-8, 2008 48% 41%
Survey USA September 26-28, 2008 49% 45%
Momentum Analysis July 8-10, 2008 41% 40%

4th District
Incumbent: Jason Altmire(D)

Source Date Democrat: Jason Altmire Republican: Melissa Hart
Anzalone Liszt October 6-9, 2008 53% 41%
Survey USA October 5, 2008 54% 42%
Anzalone-Liszt February 14, 2008 56% 40%

6th District
Incumbent: Jim Gerlach(R)

Source Date Democrat: Bob Roggio Republican: Jim Gerlach
Public Opinion Strategies August 19-21, 2008 28% 57%
Beneson Strategy Group June 21-24, 2008 32% 49%

10th District
Incumbent: Chris Carney(D)

Source Date Democrat: Chris Carney Republican: Chris Hacket
Lycoming College October 19-23, 2008 50% 35%
Momentum Analysis September 29-October 1, 2008 50% 36%
Lycoming College September 21-25, 2008 46% 36%
Survey USA August 23-25, 2008 49% 45%

11th District§
Incumbent: Paul Kanjorski(D)

Source Date Democrat: Paul Kanjorski Republican: Lou Barletta
Survey USA November 2, 2008 45% 51%
Franklin & Marshall College October 8-12, 2008 35% 40%
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 6-8, 2008 39% 43%
Grove Insight October 5-6, 2008 47% 39%
Susquehanna Polling & Research October 2, 2008 47% 39%
Grove Insight September 14-15, 2008 48% 39%
Franklin & Marshall College September 9-14, 2008 35% 44%
Susquehanna Polling & Research July 27-29, 2008 41% 45%
Susquehanna Polling & Research March 27-29, 2008 42% 47%

12th District
Incumbent: Jack Murtha(D)

Source Date Democrat: Jack Murtha Republican: William Russell
Pittsburgh Tribune-Review/
Susquehanna Polling & Research		 October 21, 2008 46% 41%

South CarolinaSouth Carolina

1st District
Incumbent: Henry Brown(R)

Source Date Democrat: Linda Ketner Republican: Henry Brown
Survey USA October 25-26, 2008 45% 50%
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 20-22, 2008 37% 48%

South DakotaSouth Dakota

At Large District
Incumbent: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin(D)

Source Date Democrat: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin Republican: Chris Lein
Mason Dixon October 13-15, 2008 62% 29%

TennesseeTennessee

7th District
Incumbent: Marsha Blackburn(R)

Source Date Republican: Tom Leatherwood Republican: Marsha Blackburn
Ethridge & Associates June 28-29, 2008 37% 48%

TexasTexas

7th District
Incumbent: John Culberson (R)

Source Date Democrat: Michael Skelly Republican: John Culberson
Zogby International October 20-22, 2008 41% 48%
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 7-8, 2008 40% 48%
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner September 7-9, 2008 37% 44%
IVR Polls April 8, 2008 39% 57%
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner December 5-12, 2007 33% 52%

10th District
Incumbent: Mike McCaul (R)

Source Date Democrat: Larry Joe Doherty Republican: Mike McCaul
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 20-22, 2008 42% 46%
Goodwin, Simon & Victoria September 28-30, 2008 38% 43%
IVR June 2, 2008 46% 52%
Goodwin, Simon & Victoria May 27-31, 2008 34% 43%

22nd District§
Incumbent: Nick Lampson (D)

Source Date Democrat: Nick Lampson Republican: Pete Olson
Zogby International October 20-22, 2008 36% 53%

32nd District
Incumbent: Pete Sessions (R)

Source Date Democrat: Eric Roberson Republican: Pete Sessions
IVR Polls June 4, 2008 43% 52%

UtahUtah

1st District
Incumbent: Rob Bishop(R)

Source Date Democrat: Morgan Bowen Republican: Rob Bishop
Dan Jones & Associates/
Deseret News		 September 8-11, 2008 21% 62%
Dan Jones & Associates/
Deseret News		 May 13-19, 2008 19% 58%

2nd District
Incumbent: Jim Matheson(D)

Source Date Democrat: James Matheson Republican: Bill Dew
Dan Jones & Associates/
Deseret News		 September 8-11, 2008 62% 27%
Dan Jones & Associates/
Deseret News		 May 13-19, 2008 67% 20%

3rd District
Incumbent: Chris Cannon(R) - defeated in primary

Source Date Democrat: Benion Spencer Republican: Jason Chaffetz
Dan Jones & Associates/
Deseret News		 September 8-11, 2008 18% 60%
Dan Jones & Associates/
Deseret News		 May 13-19, 2008 18% 46%

VirginiaVirginia

2nd District
Incumbent: Thelma Drake(R)

Source Date Democrat: Glenn Nye Republican: Thelma Drake
Bennett, Petts & Normington October 14-15, 2008 42% 47%
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 7-8, 2008 37% 51%
Bennett, Petts & Normington September 21-22, 2008 40% 45%
Bennett, Petts & Normington May 6-8, 2008 32% 48%

5th District
Incumbent: Virgil Goode(R)

Source Date Democrat: Tom Perriello Republican: Virgil Goode Green: Sherman Wichter
Survey USA November 2, 2008 47% 50%
Beneson Strategy Group (D) October 7-9, 2008 40% 48%
Survey USA October 6-7, 2008 42% 55%
Survey USA August 10-12, 2008 30% 64% 1%

6th District
Incumbent: Bob Goodlatte(R)

Source Date Democrat: Sam Rasoul Republican: Bob Goodlatte Independent: Janice Lee Allen
Survey USA August 11-13, 2008 30% 59% 3%

11th District
Incumbent: Tom Davis(R)-retiring

Source Date Democrat: Gerry Connolly Republican: Keith Fimian
Lake Research Partners July 10-14, 2008 52% 21%

Washington (state)Washington

2nd District
Incumbent: Rick Larsen(D)

Source Date Democrat: Rick Larsen Republican: Rick Bart
Survey USA July 27-29, 2008 58% 37%
Survey USA June 16-17, 2008 56% 38%

8th District§
Incumbent: Dave Reichert(R)

Source Date Democrat: Darcy Burner Republican: Dave Reichert
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 21-23, 2008 46% 46%
Survey USA October 20-21, 2008 50% 46%
Bennett, Petts & Normington (D) October 8-9, 2008 49% 44%
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 5-7, 2008 41% 49%
Lake Research Partners September 23-25, 2008 45% 48%
Survey USA September 7-9, 2008 44% 54%
Survey USA July 27-29, 2008 44% 50%
Survey USA June 16-17, 2008 45% 51%

West VirginiaWest Virginia

2nd District
Incumbent: Shelley Moore Capito(R)

Source Date Democrat: Ann Barth Republican: Shelley Moore Capito
Research 2000/Daily Kos October 6-8, 2008 39% 53%

WisconsinWisconsin

8th District
Incumbent: Steve Kagen(D)

Source Date Democrat: Steve Kagen Republican: John Gard
Survey USA October 4-5, 2008 54% 43%
Public Opinion Strategies September 17-18, 2008 46% 45%
Public Opinion Strategies July 8-9, 2008 46% 42%

WyomingWyoming

At Large District§
Incumbent: Barbara Cubin(R)-Retiring

Source Date Democrat: Gary Trauner Republican: Cynthia Lummis
Survey USA October 18-19, 2008 44% 50%
Mason Dixon October 13-14, 2008 44% 43%
Research 2000/Daily Kos September 22-24, 2008 42% 42%
Research 2000/Daily Kos May 20-21, 2008 44% 41%
Mason Dixon/
Casper Star Tribune		 January 18-21, 2008 41% 40%

Notes

§- Indicates a district that is included in the Seat to Watch section

Seats to Watch

  • Alabama 5th
    Bud Cramer(D)-retiring
    Elected: 1990
    Latest Poll:
    Parker Griffith(D) +8

  • Colorado 4th
    Marilyn Musgrave(R)(I)
    Elected: 2002
    Latest Poll:
    Betsy Markey(D) +9

  • Connecticut 4th
    Christopher Shays(R)(I)
    Elected: 1987
    Latest Poll:
    Tie

  • Kansas 2nd
    Nancy Boyda(D)(I)
    Elected: 2006
    Latest Poll:
    Boyda +7

  • Louisiana 6th
    Don Cazayoux(D)(I)
    Elected: 2008
    Latest Poll:
    Cazayoux +17

  • Michigan 7th
    Tim Walberg(R)(I)
    Elected: 2006
    Latest Poll:
    Mark Schauer(D) +8

  • Michigan 9th
    Joe Knollenberg(R)(I)
    Elected: 1992
    Latest Poll:
    Gary Peters(D) +3

  • Minnesota 3rd
    Jim Ramstad(R)-retiring
    Elected: 1990
    Latest Poll:
    Ashwin Madia(D) +3

  • Nevada 3rd
    Jon Porter(R)(I)
    Elected: 2002
    Latest Poll:
    Dina Titus(D) +2

  • New Hampshire 1st
    Carol Shea-Porter(D)(I)
    Elected: 2006
    Latest Poll:
    Porter +2

  • New Jersey 3rd
    H. James Saxton(R)-retiring
    Elected: 1984
    Latest Poll:
    John Adler(D) +8

  • New Jersey 7th
    Mike Ferguson(R)-retiring
    Elected: 2000
    Latest Poll:
    Linda Stender(D) +9

  • New Mexico 1st
    Heather Wilson(R)-retiring
    Elected: 1998
    Latest Poll:
    Martin Heinrich(D) +4

  • New York 29th
    Randy Kuhl(R)(I)
    Elected: 2004
    Latest Poll:
    Eric Massa(D) +7

  • North Carolina 8th
    Robin Hayes(R)(I)
    Elected: 1998
    Latest Poll:
    Larry Kissell(D) +8

  • Ohio 1st
    Steve Chabot(R)(I)
    Elected: 1994
    Latest Poll:
    Steve Driehaus(D) +2

  • Ohio 15th
    Deborah Pryce(R)-retiring
    Elected: 1992
    Latest Poll:
    Mary Jo Kilroy(D) +8

  • Ohio 16th
    Ralph Regula(R)-retiring
    Elected: 1972
    Latest Poll:
    John Boccieri(D) +10

  • Pennsylvania 3rd
    Phil English(R)(I)
    Elected: 1994
    Latest Poll:
    English +2

  • Pennsylvania 11th
    Paul Kanjorski(D)(I)
    Elected: 1984
    Latest Poll:
    Lou Barletta(R) +5

  • Texas 22nd
    Nick Lampson(D)(I)
    Elected: 1996
    Latest Poll:
    Pete Olson(R) +17

  • Washington 8th
    Dave Reichert(R)(I)
    Elected: 2004
    Latest Poll:
    Tie

  • Wyoming At Large
    Barbara Cubin(R)-retiring
    Elected: 1994
    Latest Poll:
    Cynthia Lummis(R) +6


House Predictions

110th Congress: D-236, R-199
111th Congressional Projection: D-237, R-175, TCTC-23

Safe Republican
  • AL-3
  • AR-1
  • AZ-2
  • CA-17
  • CO-2
  • DE-1
  • FL-10
  • GA-7
  • IA-1
  • ID-1
  • IL-3
  • IN-3
  • KS-2
  • KY-3
  • LA-1
  • MD-1
  • MI-7
  • MO-3
  • MS-1
  • MT-1
  • NE-2
  • NJ-3
  • NY-2
  • NC-4
  • OH-5
  • OK-4
  • OR-2
  • PA-4
  • SC-2
  • TN-4
  • TX-17
  • UT-2
  • VA-4
  • WA-2
  • WI-3
  • TOTAL-126
 Republican Favored
  • AL-1
  • CA-4
  • FL-1
  • IA-1
  • IL-3
  • LA-2
  • MN-2
  • NJ-1
  • NC-1
  • OH-2
  • PA-3
  • SC-1
  • TX-2
  • VA-2
  • TOTAL-26
 Leans Republican
  • AL-1
  • AZ-1
  • CA-1
  • FL-4
  • ID-1
  • IL-1
  • IN-1
  • KY-1
  • LA-1
  • MD-1
  • MO-2
  • NE-1
  • NM-1
  • NV-1
  • NY-2
  • OH-1
  • SC-1
  • VA-1
  • WV-1
  • WY-1
  • TOTAL-25
 Leans Democrat
  • AK-1
  • AZ-3
  • CA-1
  • CT-1
  • GA-1
  • IL-1
  • KY-1
  • MS-1
  • NY-2
  • PA-2
  • TX-1
  • VA-1
  • WI-1
  • TOTAL-18
 Democrat Favored
  • CT-1
  • FL-1
  • GA-1
  • IL-2
  • IN-1
  • KS-1
  • ME-1
  • MN-1
  • NH-1
  • NY-3
  • OH-1
  • OR-5
  • PA-1
  • TOTAL-15
 Safe Democrat
  • AL-1
  • AR-3
  • AZ-2
  • CA-33
  • CO-4
  • CT-2
  • FL-7
  • GA-4
  • HI-2
  • IA-3
  • IL-9
  • IN-4
  • KY-1
  • LA-2
  • MA-10
  • MD-6
  • ME-1
  • MI-6
  • MN-4
  • MO-4
  • MS-2
  • NJ-7
  • NM-1
  • NV-1
  • NY-20
  • NC-7
  • ND-1
  • OH-6
  • OK-1
  • OR-1
  • OR-3
  • OR-4
  • PA-7
  • RI-2
  • SC-2
  • SD-1
  • TN-5
  • TX-11
  • UT-1
  • VA-3
  • VT-1
  • WA-6
  • WI-4
  • WV-2
  • TOTAL-202

External links

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