- Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2008
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Polls leading up to the Canadian federal election, 2008.
Contents
Graphical summary
Polls
The dates listed are normally the date the survey was concluded. Most news and political affairs sources use the convention of using the last date that the poll was conducted in order to establish the inclusion/exclusion of current events.
Polling Firm Date of Polling Link Conservative Liberal New Democratic Bloc Québécois Green Election 2008 October 14, 2008 HTML 37.6 26.2 18.2 10.0 6.8 Asking Canadians[1] October 13, 2008 38.0 22.6 22.6 9.5 7.1 EKOS Research Associates October 13, 2008 34.8 26.4 19.4 9.8 9.6 Angus Reid Strategies October 13, 2008 37 27 20 9 7 Nanos Research October 12, 2008 34.2 26.7 21.4 9.5 8.2 EKOS Research Associates October 12, 2008 34 26 18 10 11 Harris-Decima October 12, 2008 34 25 19 11 9 Strategic Counsel October 11, 2008 33 28 18 10 11 Nanos Research October 11, 2008 33 27 22 10 9 Harris-Decima October 11, 2008 35 26 18 10 9 EKOS Research Associates October 11, 2008 34 27 18 10 11 Strategic Counsel October 10, 2008 35 28 19 9 9 Harris-Decima October 10, 2008 35 25 18 9 11 Nanos Research October 10, 2008 32 28 22 10 8 Angus Reid Strategies October 10, 2008 38 28 19 9 6 EKOS Research Associates October 10, 2008 34 26 19 10 11 Ipsos Reid October 9, 2008 34 29 18 9 8 Segma October 9, 2008 35 23 21 10 10 Nanos Research October 9, 2008 33 27 22 10 8 Harris-Decima October 9, 2008 34 26 18 9 12 EKOS Research Associates October 9, 2008 36 24 19 10 11 Nanos Research October 8, 2008 33 29 20 10 7 Harris-Decima October 8, 2008 32 27 19 8 12 EKOS Research Associates October 8, 2008 35 24 20 10 11 Nanos Research October 7, 2008 33 29 20 11 7 Angus Reid Strategies October 7, 2008 35 27 18 9 10 Harris-Decima October 7, 2008 31 27 20 8 12 EKOS Research Associates October 7, 2008 34 25 20 10 11 Harris-Decima October 6, 2008 31 26 21 8 13 Nanos Research October 6, 2008 34 31 18 11 6 EKOS Research Associates October 6, 2008 33 26 19 10 12 Harris-Decima October 5, 2008 32 25 21 8 12 Nanos Research October 5, 2008 34 29 20 11 6 EKOS Research Associates October 5, 2008 35 25 19 10 10 Harris-Decima October 4, 2008 34 24 20 8 13 Nanos Research October 4, 2008 34 30 19 10 7 EKOS Research Associates October 4, 2008 36 25 18 10 10 Angus Reid Strategies October 3, 2008 40 25 19 11 6 Harris-Decima October 3, 2008 35 22 20 9 13 Nanos Research October 3, 2008 35 28 19 10 8 EKOS Research Associates October 3, 2008 36 25 19 10 10 Ipsos Reid October 2, 2008 37 23 19 11 10 Harris-Decima October 2, 2008 37 22 18 9 12 Nanos Research October 2, 2008 PDF 35 30 18 10 9 EKOS Research Associates October 2, 2008 36 24 19 10 11 Harris-Decima October 1, 2008 36 23 18 9 12 Nanos Research October 1, 2008 PDF 37 26 19 10 8 EKOS Research Associates October 1, 2008 34 25 19 10 11 Harris-Decima September 30, 2008 36 24 17 10 11 Nanos Research September 30, 2008 PDF 36 26 20 10 9 EKOS Research Associates September 30, 2008 34 25 20 10 11 Strategic Counsel September 29, 2008 39 24 19 10 9 Harris-Decima September 29, 2008 36 26 18 9 11 Nanos Research September 29, 2008 PDF 37 26 20 10 8 EKOS Research Associates September 29, 2008 34 27 19 9 10 Harris-Decima September 28, 2008 36 26 19 8 9 Nanos Research September 28, 2008 PDF 36 26 20 9 9 EKOS Research Associates September 28, 2008 34 26 20 10 10 Nanos Research September 27, 2008 PDF 36 27 19 9 9 Harris-Decima September 27, 2008 36 25 19 9 9 Nanos Research September 26, 2008 PDF 39 25 19 8 9 Harris-Decima September 26, 2008 38 23 19 9 9 Angus Reid Strategies September 25, 2008 40 21 21 10 7 Ipsos Reid September 25, 2008 39 23 18 9 11 Nanos Research September 25, 2008 PDF 39 24 19 9 8 Harris-Decima September 25, 2008 37 24 18 9 10 EKOS Research Associates September 25, 2008 35 25 20 10 10 Nanos Research September 24, 2008 PDF 40 25 19 9 8 EKOS Research Associates September 24, 2008 36 25 19 10 11 Harris-Decima September 24, 2008 36 23 17 9 12 EKOS Research Associates September 23, 2008 37 24 19 9 11 Harris-Decima September 23, 2008 37 24 16 9 12 Nanos Research September 23, 2008 PDF 37 26 21 9 7 EKOS Research Associates September 22, 2008 36 25 19 8 12 Nanos Research September 22, 2008 PDF 38 27 21 8 6 Harris-Decima September 22, 2008 37 24 17 8 11 EKOS Research Associates September 21, 2008 37 24 19 8 12 Nanos Research September 21, 2008 PDF 35 30 22 7 6 Harris-Decima September 21, 2008 38 23 17 8 12 Nanos Research September 20, 2008 PDF 36 31 20 7 7 Harris-Decima September 20, 2008 39 23 17 8 11 Nanos Research September 19, 2008 PDF 38 29 18 7 7 Harris-Decima September 19, 2008 38 23 17 8 12 Angus Reid Strategies September 18, 2008 38 24 19 9 10 Ipsos Reid September 18, 2008 40 27 15 8 10 EKOS Research Associates September 18, 2008 36 25 18 8 13 Nanos Research September 18, 2008 PDF 39 28 18 7 7 Harris-Decima September 18, 2008 38 25 15 8 12 Nanos Research September 17, 2008 PDF 39 30 18 7 6 Harris-Decima September 17, 2008 36 27 16 8 11 EKOS Research Associates September 17, 2008 38 24 18 8 12 Nanos Research September 16, 2008 PDF 38 31 17 7 7 Harris-Decima September 16, 2008 38 28 15 8 10 EKOS Research Associates September 16, 2008 38 24 19 8 11 Nanos Research September 15, 2008 PDF 38 31 17 6 8 Harris-Decima September 15, 2008 38 27 16 8 10 EKOS Research Associates September 15, 2008 38 23 19 9 11 Segma September 15, 2008 42 23 16 7 10 Nanos Research September 14, 2008 PDF 37 31 18 6 9 Harris-Decima September 14, 2008 38 27 16 8 9 EKOS Research Associates September 14, 2008 35 25 19 9 11 Ipsos Reid September 13, 2008 38 29 13 8 11 Harris-Decima September 13, 2008 40 26 15 8 9 Nanos Research September 13, 2008 38 30 17 6 9 Angus Reid Strategies September 12, 2008 39 23 18 9 10 Nanos Research September 12, 2008 38 30 15 9 9 EKOS Research Associates September 11, 2008 36 26 19 8 11 Ipsos Reid September 11, 2008 38 29 13 8 11 Nanos Research September 11, 2008 38 31 14 9 9 Harris-Decima September 11, 2008 41 26 14 8 9 Nanos Research September 10, 2008 37 32 13 9 9 EKOS Research Associates September 9, 2008 37 26 19 8 10 Angus Reid Strategies September 9, 2008 38 24 21 9 7 Harris-Decima September 8, 2008 36 28 15 9 9 Segma September 6, 2008 43 25 15 8 7 EKOS Research Associates September 4, 2008 38 26 15 10 11 EKOS Research Associates September 3, 2008 37 24 19 6 10 Environics September 2, 2008 38 28 19 8 7 Strategic Counsel August 31, 2008 37 29 17 8 9 Ipsos Reid August 28, 2008 34 31 14 - 10 Angus Reid Strategies August 28, 2008 36 28 18 9 8 Ipsos Reid August 28, 2008 33 31 16 9 10 Nanos Research August 27, 2008 33 35 17 8 7 Harris-Decima August 24, 2008 33 34 15 7 9 Ipsos Reid August 14, 2008 36 30 14 9 10 Harris-Decima August 10, 2008 32 33 15 6 13 Ipsos Reid July 31, 2008 34 30 14 9 11 Angus Reid Strategies July 30, 2008 35 30 17 9 8 Ipsos Reid July 10, 2008 33 32 13 11 10 Environics July 5, 2008 35 30 17 10 8 Harris-Decima June 29, 2008 30 31 16 10 12 Angus Reid Strategies June 24, 2008 33 30 19 9 7 Strategic Counsel June 9, 2008 32 30 18 10 10 Harris-Decima June 8, 2008 32 31 15 6 12 Ipsos-Reid May 29, 2008 36 29 14 9 11 Angus Reid Strategies May 19, 2008 34 27 18 11 8 Nanos Research May 11, 2008 33 34 15 11 8 Strategic Counsel May 11, 2008 34 31 16 9 10 Ipsos-Reid May 8, 2008 35 32 14 - 9 Ipsos-Reid May 1, 2008 34 29 17 - 11 Angus Reid Strategies April 23, 2008 33 30 20 8 8 Harris-Decima April 21, 2008 32 33 14 - - Harris-Decima April 13, 2008 30 33 16 9 11 Strategic Counsel April 13, 2008 36 30 15 8 10 Ipsos-Reid April 10, 2008 35 30 16 - 10 Segma April 9, 2008 36 30 15 9 9 Nanos Research April 9, 2008 36 36 14 8 6 Environics April 7, 2008 35 28 17 13 7 Harris-Decima April 6, 2008 31 32 15 9 12 Harris-Decima March 30, 2008 32 30 13 9 12 Angus Reid Strategies March 28, 2008 36 26 18 9 9 Ipsos-Reid March 20, 2008 35 33 13 10 8 Harris-Decima March 16, 2008 32 32 17 9 8 Strategic Counsel March 16, 2008 38 27 14 10 12 Ipsos-Reid March 6, 2008 35 31 15 9 9 Harris-Decima March 2, 2008 31 30 17 8 13 Angus Reid Strategies March 2, 2008 34 28 18 10 9 Nanos Research February 20, 2008 34 34 14 10 8 Angus Reid Strategies February 18, 2008 34 31 17 9 8 Harris-Decima February 17, 2008 35 33 13 8 9 Strategic Counsel February 17, 2008 39 27 12 10 12 Ipsos-Reid February 14, 2008 36 29 13 9 10 Léger Marketing February 10, 2008 37 32 16 8 7 Nanos Research February 4, 2008 31 33 19 10 8 UniMarketing January 31, 2008 33 33 18 8 8 Harris-Decima January 27, 2008 29 32 16 9 12 Ipsos-Reid January 24, 2008 37 29 14 - 10 Strategic Counsel January 13, 2008 36 30 14 11 10 Ipsos-Reid January 10, 2008 33 35 13 9 9 Harris-Decima January 6, 2008 37 30 13 10 9 Environics January 3, 2008 36 22 17 13 7 Ipsos-Reid December 20, 2007 35 33 15 8 8 Harris-Decima December 17, 2007 30 32 15 11 12 Angus Reid Strategies December 14, 2007 33 28 17 10 10 Strategic Counsel December 9, 2007 32 29 16 10 13 Ipsos-Reid December 6, 2007 35 29 16 10 9 Harris-Decima December 2, 2007 36 28 17 8 11 Ipsos-Reid November 22, 2007 39 29 15 8 8 Harris-Decima November 19, 2007 36 28 17 8 9 Strategic Counsel November 13, 2007 34 31 16 11 8 Harris-Decima November 12, 2007 33 29 17 8 12 Strategic Counsel November 11, 2007 32 32 12 11 13 SES Research November 8, 2007 35 34 17 9 6 Ipsos-Reid November 8, 2007 42 28 15 8 7 Ipsos-Reid November 1, 2007 39 28 13 12 7 Harris-Decima October 29, 2007 33 29 17 9 10 Ipsos-Reid October 25, 2007 39 27 17 9 8 Unimarketing October 18, 2007 36 25 19 10 9 Ipsos-Reid October 18, 2007 40 27 14 9 8 Angus Reid Strategies October 17, 2007 34 29 17 9 9 Environics October 14, 2007 33 29 19 7 11 Strategic Counsel October 14, 2007 34 29 15 10 12 Ipsos-Reid October 13, 2007 40 28 16 8 7 Harris-Decima October 9, 2007 35 28 17 8 10 Harris-Decima October 3, 2007 33 31 16 7 10 Harris-Decima September 18, 2007 32 29 17 5 14 Angus Reid Strategies August 23, 2007 33 29 19 9 9 SES Research August 14, 2007 36 33 13 10 8 Strategic Counsel August 12, 2007 33 33 17 10 8 Ipsos-Reid July 27, 2007 34 32 17 8 8 Angus Reid Strategies July 18, 2007 33 28 19 9 8 Strategic Counsel July 15, 2007 31 31 17 10 10 Environics June 30, 2007 37 28 17 7 11 Angus Reid Strategies June 18, 2007 34 27 19 10 8 Decima June 11, 2007 29 32 18 9 9 Ipsos Reid May 31, 2007 34 31 16 10 9 Léger Marketing May 27, 2007 37 30 14 8 9 Ipsos Reid May 24, 2007 37 31 16 7 9 Angus Reid Strategies May 23, 2007 35 28 18 9 9 Decima May 20, 2007 33 31 17 8 10 Strategic Counsel May 17, 2007 34 31 16 10 9 Ipsos Reid May 17, 2007 36 32 14 9 7 Ipsos Reid May 10, 2007 31 32 17 9 9 SES Research May 3, 2007 32 33 17 9 10 Ipsos Reid May 3, 2007 35 34 14 9 7 Decima April 29, 2007 30 31 15 9 13 Ipsos Reid April 26, 2007 38 31 14 8 8 Strategic Counsel April 24, 2007 36 30 13 9 12 Decima Research April 21, 2007 30 29 18 8 11 Ipsos Reid April 19, 2007 39 29 16 9 7 Decima Research April 15, 2007 34 31 15 7 11 Ipsos Reid April 12, 2007 38 32 14 8 8 SES Research April 5, 2007 36 33 16 10 6 Decima Research April 5, 2007 39 30 13 8 8 Environics April 3, 2007 36 28 16 8 12 Ipsos Reid March 28, 2007 36 31 15 8 9 Angus Reid Strategies March 28, 2007 39 22 17 10 11 Decima Research March 25, 2007 35 31 13 8 10 Léger Marketing March 25, 2007 41 27 14 9 6 Ipsos-Reid March 22, 2007 40 29 14 9 7 Strategic Counsel March 21, 2007 39 31 13 8 9 Ipsos-Reid March 15, 2007 36 34 12 9 8 Strategic Counsel March 13, 2007 36 31 15 9 10 Angus Reid Strategies March 7, 2007 38 28 15 10 8 Decima Research March 4, 2007 35 29 15 7 11 Ipsos-Reid March 3, 2007 36 32 15 8 8 Angus Reid Strategies February 27, 2007 40 26 15 10 8 Decima Research February 26, 2007 36 27 13 8 13 Ipsos-Reid February 24, 2007 36 34 13 9 8 Decima Research February 18, 2007 32 30 15 9 11 Strategic Counsel February 18, 2007 34 29 14 11 12 Decima Research February 12, 2007 32 33 15 9 8 SES Research February 8, 2007 33 33 17 10 7 Léger Marketing February 4, 2007 38 31 14 8 7 Decima Research January 22, 2007 32 33 13 13 9 Léger Marketing January 21, 2007 35 32 13 8 9 Ipsos-Reid January 18, 2007 33 37 13 - - Decima Research January 15, 2007 32 33 13 10 9 Strategic Counsel January 14, 2007 31 35 15 11 8 Environics December 30, 2006 34 32 14 8 11 Decima Research December 30, 2006 34 31 15 10 8 Ipsos-Reid December 14, 2006 34 36 13 10 5 Decima Research December 13, 2006 32 35 12 11 7 EKOS December 9, 2006 33 40 10 9 8 Ipsos-Reid December 7, 2006 32 38 13 11 5 Decima Research December 3, 2006 PDF 31 35 12 10 11 Strategic Counsel December 3, 2006 HTML 31 37 14 11 7 Léger Marketing November 26, 2006 34 32 15 10 6 Decima Research November 13, 2006 HTML 31 33 15 10 10 SES Research November 9, 2006 PDF 34 32 16 13 5 Environics November 6, 2006 HTML 33 32 19 9 5 Decima Research November 5, 2006 HTML 31 28 18 10 9 Ipsos-Reid November 2, 2006 HTML 37 29 19 9 5 Decima Research October 16, 2006 32 30 15 11 10 Strategic Counsel October 15, 2006 HTML 32 32 17 11 9 EKOS October 12, 2006 36 31.7 16.2 9.9 6.2 Environics October 12, 2006 37 28 18 9 7 Strategic Counsel September 17, 2006 35 26 19 12 8 EKOS September 14, 2006 38.7 28.8 17.0 8.4 7.0 Decima Research September 4, 2006 34 30 14 11 10 Decima Research August 28, 2006 33 28 19 10 8 Ipsos-Reid August 24, 2006 38 29 17 10 5 SES Research August 23, 2006 PDF 36 30 18 11 5 Decima Research August 13, 2006 PDF 36 29 15 10 7 Decima Research July 31, 2006 PDF 32 31 16 11 8 Strategic Counsel July 30, 2006 HTML 38 29 15 11 8 Ipsos-Reid July 27, 2006 HTML 39 27 17 10 7 Decima Research July 23, 2006 HTML 36 30 17 - - Decima Research
(without Greens)July 16, 2006 PDF 36 30 19 11 - Decima Research
(with Greens)July 16, 2006 PDF 36 29 16 10 8 Strategic Counsel July 16, 2006 HTML 37 26 18 11 8 Environics June 23, 2006 HTML 39 25 21 9 4 Decima Research June 18, 2006 HTML 38 28 19 10 - Strategic Counsel June 8, 2006 PDF 36 27 19 9 9 Decima Research May 28, 2006 PDF 38 29 21 8 - Ipsos-Reid May 18, 2006 HTML 43 25 15 9 5 SES Research May 9, 2006 PDF 38 28 19 9 6 Strategic Counsel May 3, 2006 HTML 35 31 16 10 9 Decima Research April 23, 2006 HTML 41 26 19 10 - Strategic Counsel April 9, 2006 HTML 39 29 14 11 5 Environics March 31, 2006 HTML 41 22 21 10 5 Decima Research March 26, 2006 HTML 39 28 19 11 - Ipsos-Reid March 23, 2006 HTML 38 28 19 9 5 Decima Research March 13, 2006 HTML 37 28 19 10 - Decima Research February 27, 2006 HTML 35 28 21 10 - Ipsos-Reid February 23, 2006 HTML 39 27 20 8 5 Strategic Counsel February 21, 2006 HTML 39 28 19 8 - Decima Research February 13, 2006 PDF 35 25 24 8 - SES Research February 9, 2006 PDF 33 34 18 9 7 Election 2006 January 23, 2006 HTML 36.3 30.2 17.5 10.5 4.5 Leadership polls
Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on who would make the best Prime Minister:
Polling Firm Last Date of Polling Link Stephen Harper Stéphane Dion Jack Layton Gilles Duceppe Elizabeth May Nanos Research October 5, 2008 PDF 33 18 21 3 4 Nanos Research October 4, 2008 PDF 32 20 19 3 4 Nanos Research October 3, 2008 PDF 32 17 19 4 4 Nanos Research October 2, 2008 PDF 32 18 17 5 5 Nanos Research September 28, 2008 PDF 35 14 18 4 4 Angus Reid Strategies September 25, 2008 PDF 33 9 18 3 2 Angus Reid Strategies September 20, 2008 PDF 32 8 19 4 5 Nanos Research September 18, 2008 PDF 38 14 17 3 3 Nanos Research September 15, 2008 PDF 36 14 18 3 3 Nanos Research September 14, 2008 PDF 34 14 18 4 4 Angus Reid Strategies September 12, 2008 PDF 36 9 16 4 3 Decima Research September 8, 2008 PDF 43 22 - - - Segma September 6, 2008 PDF 42 15 16 4 4 EKOS Research Associates September 4, 2008 HTML 32 12 19 3 5 Angus Reid Strategies August 28, 2008 PDF 36 13 - - - Nanos Research August 27, 2008 PDF 36 15 17 5 4 Ipsos-Reid February 14, 2008 HTML 41 25 18 6 - Léger Marketing February 10, 2008 HTML 32 15 18 - - Nanos Research February 8, 2008 PDF 35 14 21 6 8 Nanos Research January 3, 2008 HTML 42 12 16 5 4 Nanos Research November 8, 2007 PDF 37 13 17 6 5 Segma October 18, 2007 HTML 40 10 16 1 4 Angus Reid Strategies October 17, 2007 PDF 30 10 - - - Environics October 17, 2007 HTML 37 12 19 5 4 Nanos Research August 4, 2007 PDF 31 23 18 6 5 Angus Reid Strategies July 16, 2007 HTML 33 14 - - - Angus Reid Strategies June 18, 2007 PDF 33 17 - - - Nanos Research April 5, 2007 HTML 42 17 16 7 4 Ipsos-Reid February 19, 2007 HTML 46 29 - - Sometimes the information is further broken down, as in this Strategic Counsel[2] poll conducted from February 15 to February 18, 2007:
Leader Clearest Vision for Canada Most Decisive Leader Most Charismatic Stephen Harper 50 53 35 Stéphane Dion 22 19 20 Jack Layton 20 20 36 Gilles Duceppe 8 8 10 The Strategic Counsel[3] also conducts occasional polls of the overall impression of the party leaders: favourable or not favourable (favourable percentage shown).[4]
Date of Polling Stephen Harper Stéphane Dion Jack Layton Gilles Duceppe Elizabeth May January 13, 2008 58 39 55 62 56 January 14, 2007 54 59 59 63 58 See also
References
- ^ The numbers from the poll were divided by 0.84 to remove the 16% of undecided voters (this is done for the sake of comparison, since all the other polls on this page also removed the undecided voters % from their numbers)
- ^ Latest poll shows Dion, Liberals losing support
- ^ Strategic Counsel, A Report To The Globe and Mail and CTV
- ^ CTV.ca | Dion's approval rating down across country: poll
External links
- Projections and predictions
- Election Prediction Project
- Hill and Knowlton election predictor
- LISPOP – Projected distribution of seats
Outgoing: Conservative minority Result: Conservative minorityBloc Québécois (Gilles Duceppe, candidates) · Canadian Action (Connie Fogal) · Christian Heritage (Ron Gray, candidates) · Communist (Miguel Figueroa, candidates) · Conservative (Stephen Harper, candidates) · Green (Elizabeth May, candidates) · Independent candidates · Liberal (Stéphane Dion, candidates) · Libertarian (Dennis Young, candidates) · Marxist–Leninist (Anna Di Carlo) · New Democrats (Jack Layton, candidates)
Bold indicates parties with members elected to the House of Commons.Results · Results by Riding · Newspaper Endorsements · Opinion Polling · Timeline · Scandalpedia · Anything But ConservativeCategories:- Opinion polling in Canada
- Canadian federal election, 2008
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