Queensland state election, 2012

Queensland state election, 2012

2009 ← On or before 16 June 2012

Leader Anna Bligh Jeff Seeney[1] Party Labor Liberal National Leader since 13 September 2007 (2007-09-13) 22 March 2011 (2011-03-22) Leader's seat South Brisbane Callide Last election 51 seats 34 seats Seats needed 0 11 2PP @ 2009 50.9% 49.1% 2PP polling 39% 61% PP polling 34% 48%[2]

Incumbent Premier Anna Bligh Labor

The 2012 Queensland state election will elect all 89 members of the Legislative Assembly. Queensland elections must be held on a Saturday, the last possible date being calculated by reference to the previous election writs, and therefore slightly longer than 3 years after the previous election. All seats in the Legislative Assembly, whose current members were elected at the 2009 election, will become vacant.

The Labor Party, currently led by Premier Anna Bligh, will attempt to win a sixth term against the Liberal National Party. It would also be the ALP's attempt at a ninth consecutive election victory having won every general election since 1989 although it was out of office between 1996 and 1998.

In the 2009 state election—of 89 seats total—Labor won 51 seats, the Liberal Nationals won 34 seats, with four seats held by independents.

Katter's Australian Party will be contesting the election for the first time. It currently holds two seats in parliament, one gained as a result of Aidan McLindon's merger of his Queensland Party with Katter's group and the other after LNP MP Shane Knuth defected.

Queensland uses Optional Preferential Voting. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland, an independent body answerable to Parliament.

Leadership of the Liberal National Party

Campbell Newman will lead the LNP electoral team against Labor in the election and simultaneously contest the seat of Ashgrove as the LNP candidate.^[3] If he is successful, Newman will assume the position of parliamentary leader of the LNP, and if the party is elected to government, Premier of Queensland.

Newman is not in the parliament therefore the parliamentary leader of the Liberal National Party, and therefore Opposition Leader, is Jeff Seeney.

Date

In Queensland, a parliamentary term is a maximum of three years, measured from the day set for the return of the electoral writs. The previous state election was held on 21 March 2009 to elect the 89 members of the Legislative Assembly.

Section 80 of the Queensland Electoral Act 1992 states that an election must be held on a Saturday; and that the election campaign must run for a minimum of 26 or a maximum of 56 days following the issue of the writs. Five to seven days following the issue of the writs, the electoral roll is closed, which gives voters a final opportunity to enrol or to notify the Electoral Commission of Queensland of any changes in their place of residence.^[4]

The Constitution Act Amendment Act 1890 provides that the Legislative Assembly continues for (up to) three years from the day set for the return of writs for the previous election, after which time the Legislative Assembly lapses. ^[5]

The day set for the return of writs for the 2009 election was 20 April 2009.^[6] The Electoral Act requires the Governor to issue writs for a general election "not later than 4 days after the day on which the Legislative Assembly is dissolved or expires by the passage of time" (section 78(2)).

The last possible day for the next election is therefore a Saturday not more than 56 days beyond 4 days after the expiry of the Legislative Assembly on 24 April 2012, namely, 16 June 2012. The Premier may advise the Governor to issue writs for a general election at an earlier date.

Last election

See also: Post-election pendulum for the Queensland state election, 2009

The last state election to be held was the 2009 Queensland State election where the Australian Labor Party led by Premier Anna Bligh competed against the newly formed Liberal National Party led by Leader of the Opposition Lawrence Springborg for a fifth consecutive term in office. The election was the first for Bligh who had succeeded former Premier Peter Beattie a little over a year before the election. Springborg had taken the former Coalition to the 2004 and 2006 State elections losses but had reduced Labor's margin at each.

The Labor Party went into the election with a substantially comfortable margin with 59 seats to the Liberal National Parties 25 seats. Queensland re-elected the Labor Party with a reduced majority and in turn elected the first Government to be led by a female within Australia. The only Green member of parliament lost his seat of Indooroopilly and the only One Nation member, Rosa Lee Long failed in her attempt to win the new seat of Dalrymple after her electorate of Tablelands was abolished.

Retiring MPs

The following Members of Parliament have announced they will not seek re-election:

Labor

• Desley Boyle (Cairns) — announced 17 February 2011^[7]
• Paul Lucas (Lytton) — announced 15 September 2011^[7]
• John Mickel (Logan) — announced 10 August 2011^[7]
• Lindy Nelson-Carr (Mundingburra) — announced 28 March 2011^[7]
• Stephen Robertson (Stretton) — announced 27 March 2011^[7]
• Robert Schwarten (Rockhampton) — announced 17 February 2011^[7]
• Judy Spence (Sunnybank) — announced 15 December 2010^[7]

LNP

• Mike Horan (Toowoomba South) — announced 26 March 2011^[7]

Independent

• Dorothy Pratt (Nanango) — announced 15 April 2011^[8]

Polling

Newspoll polling was conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1000 electors, with the declared margin of error at around ±3 percent.

Legislative Assembly polling

	Primary vote				2PP vote
	ALP	LNP	GRN	OTH	ALP	LNP
Jul – Sep 2011	27%	50%	8%	15%	39%	61%
Apr – May 2011	31%	51%	7%	11%	40%	60%
Jan – Mar 2011	38%	37%	10%	15%	52%	48%
Oct – Dec 2010	26%	45%	13%	16%	41%	59%
Jul – Sep 2010	29%	44%	14%	13%	43%	57%
2009 Election	42.3%	41.6%	8.4%	7.8%	50.9%	49.1%
18 – 19 Mar 2009	42%	42%	7%	9%	49.9%	50.1%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.

Better Premier polling^

	Bligh	Newman
	ALP	LNP
Jul – Sep 2011	34%	48%
Apr – May 2011	35%	49%
Jan – Mar 2011	53%	26%2
Oct – Dec 2010	31%	41%2
Jul – Sep 2010	34%	42%2
2009 election	–	–
18 – 19 Mar 2009	53%	33%1
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. 1 Lawrence Springborg 2 John-Paul Langbroek

Satisfaction polling^

	Bligh		Newman
	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Satisfied	Dissatisfied
Jul – Sep 2011	38%	52%	51%	27%
Apr – May 2011	40%	50%	50%	22%
Jan – Mar 2011	49%	43%	33%2	40%2
Oct – Dec 2010	24%	67%	38%2	38%2
Jul – Sep 2010	26%	65%	32%2	42%2
2009 election	–	–	–	–
18 – 19 Mar 2009	46%	44%	39%1	49%1
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. 1 Lawrence Springborg 2 John-Paul Langbroek

References

1. ^ Seeney is party's leader in Parliament, and therefore Leader of the Opposition, but Campbell Newman will lead the party in the election. See #Leadership of the Liberal National Party.
2. ^ Polling for Campbell Newman, not Seeney.
3. ^ Robinson, Paul: LNP leadership wrangle a 'Campbell shambles', ABC News, 23 March 2011.
4. ^ Electoral Act 1992
5. ^ Constitution of Queensland 2001
6. ^ ECQ Election timetable, 2009
7. ^ ^{a b c d e f g h} "QLD MPs to step down at election". Brisbane Times. 15 September 2011. http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/qld-mps-to-step-down-at-election-20110915-1kavp.html. Retrieved 15 September 2011. 
8. ^ As the major parties goe to war, Dolly calls it a day

External links

• Electoral Commission Queensland