Opinion polling in the Finnish parliamentary election, 2011


Opinion polling in the Finnish parliamentary election, 2011

Opinion polling in the Finnish parliamentary election, 2011 began just over a year before the election in January 2010. The major difference between the polls before 2011 and the polls before previous elections was the larger-than-expected support for the True Finns.

Contents

Polling information

Taloustutkimus performs monthly telephone polls on party popularity for the Finnish Broadcasting Company. The monthly sample size varies between 2,900-3,900 with a margin of error of about ±1.8 %.[1] (Polling does not include Åland as it has its own party system.)[2]

However, there were also other less frequent opinion polls.

Polls

Taloustutkimus' monthly polls:

Party 2007 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011
Centre Party 23.1% 20.7% 19.6% 20.7% 20.6% 18.6% 19.2% 19.7% 19.7% 19.0% 17.6% 18.6% 18.8% 18.5% 18.9% 18.1% 18.6%
National Coalition Party 22.3% 23.2% 23.6% 22.9% 22.7% 23.0% 21.9% 23.0% 22.8% 21.9% 21.7% 21.1% 21.2% 20.4% 20.9% 20,1% 21.2%
Social Democrats 21.4% 21.0% 21.2% 21.2% 21.3% 21.3% 21.1% 20.5% 20.4% 19.8% 19.1% 18.4% 18.1% 18.9% 17.5% 18.1% 18.0%
Left Alliance 8.8% 8.1% 8.3% 8.0% 7.6% 7.7% 8.1% 7.8% 7.5% 7.2% 7.8% 7.9% 8.1% 7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 8.2%
Green League 8.5% 10.1% 10.4% 10.4% 10.3% 10.3% 10.6% 9.5% 9.2% 9.9% 9.7% 9.1% 9.5% 9.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0%
Christian Democrats 4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.3% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 4.3% 3.9% 4.4% 4.6% 4.5% 3.8% 3.8% 4.2% 4.6% 4.2%
Swedish People's Party of Finland 4.6% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 3.6% 3.7% 3.9% 4.0% 4.4% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 3.4% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 4.2%
True Finns 4.1% 6.4% 6.3% 6.8% 7.8% 9.6% 9.8% 10.1% 10.7% 12.5% 14.3% 14.9% 15.3% 16.6% 16.9% 17.2% 15.4%
[3]/[4]

Other polls too had indicated a significant rise in support for the True Finns. A poll commissioned by TNS Gallup for Helsingin Sanomat in March showed the True Finns with 18.4% of support, making it the second most popular party behind the National Coalition Party.[5] Surveys in individual electoral districts as well had shown large support for the True Finns. The party had polled over 20% support in several electoral districts.[6][7][8] An Helsingin Sanomat poll suggested that the party was eating into the Centre Party's vote bank in Lapland and the Left Alliance could also lose one of its two seats in the district.[9] Similar developments had been polled in the other electoral districts; Suomen Kuvalehti said that on the whole the True Finns were attracting supporters from all the three largest parties and that one-fifth of its voters did not vote in the last election.[10]

A poll in March indicated that rural residents - the core support base of the Centre Party - and blue-collar workers took the most negative views towards immigration.[11]

The latest poll commisioned by TNS Gallup for Helsingin Sanomat in early April indicated that the NCP was still the largest party with 20.2%, closely followed by the Centre Party with 17.9% and the Social Democrats with 18%, while True Finns polled slightly less than in the previous poll with 16.9%. The Green League was further behind with 8.3%.[12] A representative of TNS Gallup said that the actual support of the True Finns was hard to estimate because of exceptionally high margins of error and the fact that the result of the previous election was used to adjust the poll's raw data.[13]

Although the NCP had been atop the Centre Party in all opinion polls, the polls concerning the voters' preference for the next prime minister had given higher numbers for the incumbent PM Kiviniemi of the Centre Party. In an April poll she was the citizens' favourite candidate to be next PM with 28%, while NCP's Katainen received 27%. Soini of the True Finns got a share of 13% and the Social Democrat Urpilainen received 10%.[14]

Other polling

A poll of Finnish teachers, mostly from southern and western Finland, indicated that 41% questioned by Opettaja-lehti ("Teacher Magazine") wanted limits of 20-30% on immigrant students in schools and daycare centres. A 75% majority also said that immigrants should be dispersed throughout the country to avoid concentrations of immigrant populations within certain areas. A majority also said that they had received no training to teach immigrants.[15]

A study conducted by Swedish and Finnish economists found that there is "a greater effect of good looks, in terms of more votes for candidates on the right."[16] A poll, conducted for the eighth time, of 28,000 secondary, upper secondary, and vocational school students below the age of voting suggested that the Eduskunta would have 12 parties in the "youth election." The poll suggested that only 58 women would be MPs, the average age of MPs would be 38.6 and that there would be more immigrant MPs. In terms of seats the Green League and the National Coalition Party would be the largest followed by the Centre Party. The Pirate Party would also get as many seats as the Left Alliance. Incumbent Prime Minister Mari Kiviniemi would not win her seat and True Finns leader Timo Soini would get the largest number of personal votes.[17]

References

  1. ^ "Puolueiden kannatusarviot" (in Finnish). Sections for 2010, 2009 and 2008: Taloustutkimus. http://www.taloustutkimus.fi/tuotteet_ja_palvelut/puolueiden_kannatusarviot/. Retrieved 27 December 2010. 
  2. ^ "Poll gives new record for support for True Finns". Helsingin Sanomat. http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Poll+gives+new+record+for+support+for+True+Finns/1135263311508. Retrieved 18 April 2011. 
  3. ^ "Puolueiden kannatusarviot" (in Finnish). Taloustutkimus.fi. http://www.taloustutkimus.fi/tuotteet_ja_palvelut/puolueiden_kannatusarviot/. Retrieved 18 April 2011. 
  4. ^ "Puoluekannatusmittari". YLE Uutiset. http://www.yle.fi/puoluekannatusmittari/. Retrieved 18 April 2011. 
  5. ^ Kalle Silfverberg Sähköposti (17 March 2011). "Perussuomalaiset nousi gallupkakkoseksi" (in Finnish). HS.fi. http://www.hs.fi/politiikka/artikkeli/Perussuomalaiset+nousivat+gallupkakkosiksi/1135264670843. Retrieved 18 April 2011. 
  6. ^ "SK: Kokoomus nyt Satakunnan suurin – SDP romahtanut" (in Finnish). Verkkouutiset. 19 February 2011. http://verkkouutiset.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=49073:sk-kokoomus-nyt-satakunnan-suurin-sdp-romahtanut&catid=88:eduskuntavaalit-2011-paeaeuutinen&Itemid=30. Retrieved 18 April 2011. 
  7. ^ "Perussuomalaiset nousi Kymessä yli 20 prosentin | Kymen Sanomat" (in Finnish). Kymensanomat.fi. 22 March 2011. http://www.kymensanomat.fi/Online/2011/03/22/Perussuomalaiset+nousi+Kymess%C3%A4+yli+20+prosentin/2011310845225/4. Retrieved 18 April 2011. 
  8. ^ "Perussuomalaiset hipovat jo kärkeä Varsinais-Suomessakin – Kotimaa – Turun Sanomat". Ts.fi. 27 March 2011. http://www.ts.fi/online/kotimaa/208087.html. Retrieved 18 April 2011. 
  9. ^ "Survey indicates True Finns are taking votes from Centre Party in Lapland". Helsingin Sanomat. http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Survey+indicates+True+Finns+are+taking+votes+from+Centre+Party+in+Lapland/1135263130357. Retrieved 18 April 2011. 
  10. ^ "Magazine claims True Finns are attracting supporters from all three large parties". Helsingin Sanomat. http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Magazine+claims+True+Finns+are+attracting+supporters+from+all+three+large+parties/1135261265000. Retrieved 18 April 2011. 
  11. ^ "European elections: Centre accuses National Coalition Party of dirty campaign tactics". Helsingen Sanomat. Sanomat News. http://www.hs.fi/english/article/European+elections+Centre+accuses+National+Coalition+Party+of+dirty+campaign+tactics/1135246477194. 
  12. ^ "Poll: National Coalition Party the largest, SDP gains, True Finns fall back". Helsingin Sanomat. http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Poll+National+Coalition+Party+the+largest+SDP+gains+True+Finns+fall+back/1135265335553. Retrieved 18 April 2011. 
  13. ^ Hellevi Mauno. "Hurja Timo Soini -luku: Mikä onkaan persujen todellinen kannatus? – Ilta-Sanomat" (in Finnish). Iltasanomat.fi. http://www.iltasanomat.fi/vaalit2011/Onko%20huima%20Soini-luku%20totta/art-1288382114329.html. Retrieved 18 April 2011. 
  14. ^ "Iltalehden kysely: Katainen tavoittanut Kiviniemeä pääministerisuosikkina" (in Finnish). MTV3.fi. http://www.mtv3.fi/uutiset/vaalit/index.shtml/arkistot/kotimaa/2011/04/1313345/iltalehden-kysely-katainen-tavoittanut-kiviniemea-paaministerisuosikkina. Retrieved 18 April 2011. 
  15. ^ "Poll: 41 Percent of Finnish Teachers Want Immigrant Quotas". YLE Uutiset. http://www.yle.fi/uutiset/news/2011/02/poll_41_percent_of_finnish_teachers_want_immigrant_quotas_2384000.html. Retrieved 18 April 2011. 
  16. ^ "AFP: Rightwing candidates are better looking, says study". Google.com. 23 February 2011. http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iWI-Ekd20c4ZtJnh6hJhZmUDisAA?docId=CNG.97fd7d31409a22b937a0af220188ab56.311. Retrieved 18 April 2011. 
  17. ^ "Greens do well in shadow elections among schoolchildren". Helsingin Sanomat. http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Greens+do+well+in+shadow+elections+among+schoolchildren/1135265365173. Retrieved 18 April 2011. 

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