WMD theories in the aftermath of the 2003 Iraq War

WMD theories in the aftermath of the 2003 Iraq War

WMD theories in the aftermath of the 2003 Iraq War concern the failure by the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) and the U.S.-led Iraq Survey Group (ISG) to locate undeclared stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction both before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq. [ [http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/10/07/wmd.report.reax/index.html No WMD stockpiles in Iraq] CNN October 7, 2004] The United States effectively terminated the search effort for unconventional weaponry in January 2005, though other investigative bodies continue to examine material evidence relating to past programs. [ [http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/01/12/wmd.search/ U.S. calls off search for Iraqi WMDs] CNN January 12, 2005] [ [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4169941.stm Fallout from WMD search failure] BBC News January 12, 2005] Major controversy was generated when prohibited weapons were not found. Some observers reason Saddam Hussein miscalculated by deceiving Intelligence services into believing he had retained active stockpiles while others remain convinced, contrary to the findings of the ISG, that such weapons continue to exist. A number of alternative theories have been put forward to explain their possible whereabouts.

tockpiles still hidden

Appearing on MSNBC's Hardball in June 2004, Paul Wolfowitz insisted the weapons picture was without change, since Iraq "had a lot of time to move stuff, a lot of time to hide stuff." [ [http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5286752/ 'Hardball with Chris Matthews' for June 23] MSNBC June 24 2004] Three weeks later, Lord Butler of Brockwell said upon conclusion of the Butler Review, "Iraq is a very big place, there is a lot of sand. ... It is impractical to dig up the whole of Iraq, but for somebody to say 'we are absolutely certain that there is nothing there' would be a very rash and unfounded thing to say, in our judgment." [ [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/07/15/ndoss115.xml&sSheet=/news/2004/07/15/ixnewstop.html Report holds out the possibility that WMD may still be found...one day] "The Daily Telegraph". July 14, 2004.] ["In the period immediately following hostilities ... much potential evidence about prohibited Iraqi weapons programmes may have been destroyed. The systematic destruction of computers and other forms of records at some sites suggested that it was not the work of looters but was part of a scheme of orchestrated destruction." Lord Butler's Review of Intelligenceon Weapons of Mass Destruction, p. 97-98]

Some experts, such as former Pentagon investigator Dave Gaubatz, allege that not all of the potential sites that may contain WMD have been searched. On February 12, 2006, he appeared on Fox News Channel and claimed he and fellow military investigators identified four underground bunkers with five foot thick concrete walls in southern Iraq said to hold such weapons. Iraqi "informants" had brought these sites to the attention of Gaubatz and his colleagues. Gaubatz claims that, for various reasons, these sites have never been inspected by the Iraq Survey Group or the CIA, and made a plea the sites be inspected. [ [http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/23/us/23believers.html?ex=1308715200&en=414e2ad8f9ef4ccb&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss For Diehards, Search for Iraq's W.M.D. Isn't Over] New York Times June 23, 2006] Gaubatz also reiterated his claims in a telephone interview with The New York Sun [ [http://www.nysun.com/article/27183 Ex-Officer Spurned on WMD Claim] New York Sun February 8 2006] and later FrontPage Magazine. [ [http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID={ADD15EB9-3A51-46D1-B834-27EEDE7AF8CB} The Iraqi WMDs That Slipped Through Our Fingers] FrontPage Magazine April 06, 2006] Tom Ferrick reported in The Philadelphia Inquirer June, 2006 that US Republicans Curt Weldon and Peter Hoekstra had secretly planned to visit Iraq with the intention of locating and inspecting the four suspected sites themselves. [ [http://web.archive.org/web/20060923110553/http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/local/states/pennsylvania/counties/philadelphia_county/philadelphia/14916463.htm Indiana Jones? No, it's Weldon] The Philadelphia Inquirer June 28, 2006] According to Gaubatz, the arrangement was canceled when news of the trip leaked to the press. "I think the jury is still out on WMD," said Weldon the same month. [ [http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://www.delcotimes.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=16755452&BRD=1675&PAG=461&dept_id=18171&rfi=6 Weldon, Sestak battle over U.S. withdrawal from Iraq] DelcoTimes June 8, 2006]

tockpiles transported to another country

Rumors have abounded of possible transportation of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction to foreign countries, namely Syria, Lebanon and Iran, in the weeks before Operation Iraqi Freedom began. John Bolton told the House Committee on Foreign Affairs that these reports give "cause for concern." [ [http://www.state.gov/t/us/rm/24135.htm Syria's WMD and Missile Development Programs] September 16, 2003]

Alleged Russian involvement

Romanian intelligence defector Ion Mihai Pacepa alleged that an operation for the removal of chemical weapons was prepared by the Soviet Union for Libya, and that he was told over thirty years ago by Romanian President Nicolae Ceauşescu, KGB chairman Yury Andropov, and later, Yevgeny Primakov, about the existence of a similar plan for Iraq. It is "perfectly obvious", wrote Pacepa, that the Russian GRU agency helped Saddam Hussein to destroy, hide, or transfer his chemical weapons prior to the American invasion of Iraq in 2003. "After all, Russia helped Saddam get his hands on them in the first place." [ [http://www.washtimes.com/news/2003/aug/20/20030820-081256-6822r/ Ex-spy fingers Russians on WMD] , The Washington Times, October 2, 2003. "Operation Sarindar" (meaning "emergency exit") was an operating procedure designed by Soviet military intelligence to get rid of all traces of chemical weapons delivered or produced under Soviet guidance in Third World countries "if the Western imperialists ever got near them", writes Pacepa.]

John Loftus, director of The Intelligence Summit, said in the November 16, 2007 issue of FrontPage Magazine that many documents from Iraq point to WMD being transferred to other countries such as Syria: "As stated in more detail in my full report, the British, Ukrainian and American secret services all believed that the Russians had organized a last minute evacuation of CW and BW stockpiles from Baghdad to Syria." His researchers allegedly found a document ordering the concealment of nuclear weapons equipment in storage facilities "under" the Euphrates River a few weeks before the invasion.cite web|last =Loftus |first =John |authorlink =John Loftus |title =Shattering Conventional Wisdom About Saddam's WMD's |work=FrontPageMag.com |publisher =David Horowitz Freedom Center |date =November 16, 2007 |url =http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=F715A709-2614-4EA5-967C-F6151F94A364 |accessdate =2008-04-06]

yria

Former Iraqi general Georges Sada claimed that in late summer 2002, Saddam had ordered all of his stockpiles to be moved to Syria. He appeared on Fox News' Hannity & Colmes in January 2006 to discuss his book, "Saddam's Secrets: How an Iraqi General Defied and Survived Saddam Hussein". Anticipating the arrival of weapon inspectors on November 1, Sada said Saddam took advantage of the June 4 Zeyzoun Dam disaster in Syria by forming an "air bridge", loading them onto cargo aircraft and piloting them out of the country.

They were moved by air and by ground, 56 sorties by jumbo, 747, and 27 were moved, after they were converted to cargo aircraft, they were moved to Syria. [ [http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,182932,00.html Former Top Military Aide to Saddam Reveals Dictator's Secret Plans] January 26 2006]

In January 2004, Nizar Nayuf, a Syrian journalist who moved to Western Europe, said in a letter to the Dutch newspaper "De Telegraaf" that he knows the three sites where Iraq's weapons of mass destruction are kept inside Syria. According to Nayuf's witness, described as a senior source inside Syrian military intelligence he had known for two years, [ [http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&contentId=A5102-2004Jan9&notFound=true Syria Role On Iraqi Arms Is Studied] Washington Post January 10 2004] Iraq's WMD are in tunnels dug under the town of al-Baida near the city of Hama in northern Syria, in the village of Tal Snan, north of the town of Salamija, where there is a big Syrian air force camp, and in the city of Sjinsjar on the Syrian border with the Lebanon, south of Homs city. Nayouf also wrote that the transfer of Iraqi WMD to Syria was organized by the commanders of Saddam Hussein's Iraqi Republican Guard, including General Shalish, with the help of Assif Shoakat, Bashar Assad's cousin. Shoakat is the CEO of Bhaha, an import/export company owned by the Assad family. [ [http://www.2la.org/syria/iraq-wmd.php A senior Syrian journalist reports Iraq WMD located in three Syrian sites] 2LA.org January 2004] U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice responded to this accusation by saying "I don't think we are at the point that we can make a judgment on this issue. There hasn't been any hard evidence that such a thing happened. But obviously we're going to follow up every lead, and it would be a serious problem if that, in fact, did happen." [ [http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&contentId=A5102-2004Jan9&notFound=true Syria Role On Iraqi Arms Is Studied] Washington Post January 10 2004]

A similar claim was made by Lieutenant General Moshe Ya'alon, a former Israeli officer who served as chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces from July 2002 to June 2005. In April 2004, he was quoted as saying that "perhaps they transferred them to another country, such as Syria." [ [http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/04/26/1082831497269.html Israeli military chief says Iraq had chemical weapons] The Sydney Morning Herald April 27 2004] General Ya'alon told the New York Sun more firmly in December 2005 that "He [Saddam] transferred the chemical agents from Iraq to Syria." [ [http://www.nysun.com/article/24480?page_no=1&access=724617 Saddam's WMD Moved to Syria, An Israeli Says] New York Sun December 15 2005] The Fall 2005 Middle East Quarterly also reported Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon as having said in a December, 2002 appearance on Israel's Channel 2, "...chemical and biological weapons which Saddam is endeavoring to conceal have been moved from Iraq to Syria." [ [http://www.meforum.org/article/755# The Middle East Quarterly] Fall 2005]

In February 2006, Ali Ibrahim al-Tikriti, a former Iraqi general who defected shortly before the Gulf War in 1991, gave an interview to Ryan Mauro, author of "Death to America: The Unreported Battle of Iraq" and founder of WorldThreats. In the interview, al-Tikriti, who was once known as the "Butcher of Basra", told Mauro:

I know Saddam's weapons are in Syria due to certain military deals that were made going as far back as the late 1980s that dealt with the event that either capitols were threatened with being overrun by an enemy nation. Not to mention I have discussed this in-depth with various contacts of mine who have confirmed what I already knew. At this point Saddam knew that the United States were eventually going to come for his weapons and the United States wasn't going to just let this go like they did in the original Gulf War. He knew that he had lied for this many years and wanted to maintain legitimacy with the pan Arab nationalists. He also has wanted since he took power to embarrass the West and this was the perfect opportunity to do so. After Saddam denied he had such weapons why would he use them or leave them readily available to be found? That would only legitimize President Bush, whom he has a personal grudge against. What we are witnessing now is many who opposed the war to begin with are rallying around Saddam saying we overthrew a sovereign leader based on a lie about WMD. This is exactly what Saddam wanted and predicted. [ [http://www.worldthreats.com/middle_east/talk_tikriti.htm Interview with Ali Ibrahim Al-Tikriti] WorldThreats.com February 15 2006]

Al-Tikriti's interview has been featured prominently on conservative web sites such as FrontPageMag and WorldNetDaily, but hasn't received main stream press attention. Salon magazine editor Alex Koppelman found reason to doubt both Sada's and al-Tikriti's statements. [ [http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://www.dfire.org/x2097.xml Lions, Tigers and WMD Conspiracies, Oh My!] Dragonfire.org February 2006]

The Iraq Survey Group was told that Saddam Hussein periodically removed guards from the Syrian border and replaced them with his intelligence agents who then supervised the movement of banned materials between Syria and Iraq, according to two unnamed defense sources that spoke with The Washington Times. They reported heavy traffic in large trucks on the border before the United States invasion. [ [http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20040816-011235-4438r.htm Saddam agents on Syria border helped move banned materials] August 16 2004] Earlier, in a telephone interview with The Daily Telegraph, the former head of the Iraqi Survey Group, David Kay, said: " [W] e know from some of the interrogations of former Iraqi officials that a lot of material went to Syria before the war, including some components of Saddam's WMD program. Precisely what went to Syria, and what has happened to it, is a major issue that needs to be resolved." [ [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/01/25/wirq25.xml&sSheet=/news/2004/01/25/ixnewstop.html Saddam's WMD hidden in Syria, says Iraq survey chief] January 24 2004] Satellite imagery also picked up unusual activity on the Iraq-Syria border before and during the invasion. James R. Clapper, who headed the National Imagery and Mapping Agency in 2003, has said U.S. intelligence tracked a large number of vehicles, mostly civilian trucks, moving from Iraq into Syria. Clapper suggested the trucks may have contained materiel related to Iraq's WMD programs. [ [http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/10/30/iraq/main580883.shtml WMD Hunt May Be Back-Burnered] October 29 2003]

ISG formed a special working group to investigate and consider these claims. Charles Duelfer, head of inspectorate at time of publication, summarized the group's conclusion: "Based on the evidence available at present, ISG judged that it was unlikely that an official transfer of WMD material from Iraq to Syria took place." [ [http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b8956280-b67e-11d9-aebd-00000e2511c8.html US team concludes Saddam had no WMD] Financial Times 27 April 2005] [ [http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/09/16/iraq/main643989.shtml No Basis For WMD Smuggling Claims] CBS News January 15, 2005] [ [http://www.gpoaccess.gov/duelfer/index.html Comprehensive Revised Report with Addendums on Iraq's WMD] (Duelfer Report)]

Jordan

On April 27 2004, Fox News reported that "operatives" had confessed to planning an attack on "the U.S. Embassy and other targets in Jordan using a combination of conventional and chemical weapons." Acting under the orders of Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi, self-professed leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq, officials said the plotters entered Jordan from Syria with trucks filled with 20 tons of toxic chemicals. The attackers allegedly planned to kill some 80,000 civilians. [ [http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,118203,00.html Jordan Airs Confessions of Suspected Terrorists] Fox News April 27 2004] [ [http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?page=article&id=1047 The Shocking Story About WMD in Jordan] June 2004] The chemicals, reported as "Iraqi nerve gas" by Hal Lindsey's TBN "International Intelligence Briefing," were said to have been part of a much larger cache buried in Syria. Georges Sada claimed these were the same weapons Saddam Hussein transported out of the country before the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. [ [http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2006/1/29/133526.shtml Syria Gave Al-Qaida Saddam's WMDs] NewsMax January 29 2006] The defendants later denied the charges, saying they were beaten and forced to sign confessions. [ [http://nl.newsbank.com/nl-search/we/Archives?p_product=NewsLibrary&p_multi=BBAB&d_place=BBAB&p_theme=newslibrary2&p_action=search&p_maxdocs=200&p_topdoc=1&p_text_direct-0=10D196312A316C10&p_field_direct-0=document_id&p_perpage=10&p_sort=YMD_date:D&s_trackval=GooglePM Jordan terror trial suspects 'forced to sign confessions'] Jordan Times October 6, 2005] [ [http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=55516&version=1&template_id=37&parent_id=17 Jordan terror suspects say they were forced to confess] Gulf Times October 6, 2005]

Lebanon

American Internet newspaper World Tribune reported in August 2003 that Iraq's WMD may have been moved to Lebanon's heavily-fortified Bekaa Valley. According to the story, United States intelligence identified "a stream of tractor-trailer trucks" moving from Iraq through Syria to Lebanon in the weeks before invasion. [ [http://web.archive.org/web/20030826191116/http://216.26.163.62/2003/ss_iraq_08_25.html U.S suspects Iraqi WMD in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley] August 26, 2003] WorldNetDaily followed up the same story in May 2004 adding affirmatively "much, if not all, of Iraq's biological and chemical weapons assets are being protected by Syria, with Iranian help, in the Bekaa Valley." [ [http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=38581 Saddam's WMD in Lebanon] WorldNetDaily May 20, 2004]

Former United States Deputy Undersecretary of Defense John A. Shaw also alleged that the Russians played an extensive role in transporting materials into both Syria and Lebanon, "to prevent the United States from discovering them." Shaw claimed trucks were transporting materials to Syria and returning empty. In addition, containers with warnings painted on them were moved to a Beirut hospital basement. "They were moved by Russian Spetsnaz (special forces) units out of uniform, that were specifically sent to Iraq to move the weaponry and eradicate any evidence of its existence". China is also alleged to have helped remove WMD equipment. [ [http://web.archive.org/web/20050205085759/http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20041028-122637-6257r.htm Russia tied to Iraq's missing arms] NewsMax October 28, 2004] [ [http://newsmax.com/archives/articles/2006/2/18/233023.shtml Russia Moved Saddam's WMD] NewsMax February 19, 2006] Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs Lawrence Di Rita called Shaw's charges "absurd and without any foundation." DiRita noted that Shaw "has been directed on several occasions to produce evidence of his wide-ranging and fantastic charges and provide it to the DoD inspector general. To my knowledge, he has not done so." [ [http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20041229-113041-1647r.htm Pentagon ousts official who tied Russia, Iraq arms] The Washington Times January, 2005] In reply to official denials, Shaw claimed that the Bush administration had made efforts to cover up the intelligence data that he had revealed. "Larry DiRita made sure that this story would never grow legs," he said, insisting the Russian "clean-up" operation "was a masterpiece of military camouflage and deception." [ [http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2005/3/2/230625.shtml Russia Moved Iraqi WMD] NewsMax March 3, 2005] Former Russian Foreign Intelligence director Evgeny Primakov rejected the story, telling "Kommersant" that "all of Shaw's sensational revelations are complete nonsense." [ [http://www.kommersant.com/page.asp?id=653271 Evgeny Primakov Named in International Scandal] Kommersant March 1, 2006]

Iran

In addition to Syria and Lebanon, former deputy commander of U.S. Central Command Lt. General Michael DeLong claimed that some weapons of mass destruction were transported to Iran. Speaking to WABC Radio's Steve Malzberg, he remarked: "I do know for a fact that some of those weapons went into Syria, Lebanon and Iran. ... We also know that before then, they buried some of the weapons of mass destruction". [ [http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2004/9/26/161043.shtml Ex-CENTCOM No. 2: Intel Showed Iraq Smuggled Out WMDs] NewsMax September 26, 2004]

John Loftus also saw information that led him to believe Iran had acquired illicit material. In a story on Dave Gaubatz, The Daily Mail's Melanie Phillips quoted Loftus as saying "Saddam had the last laugh and donated his secret stockpile to benefit Iran's nuclear weapons programme." [ [http://www.spectator.co.uk/archive/29092/i-found-saddams-wmd-bunkers.thtml 'I found Saddam’s WMD bunkers'] The Spectator April 21 2007] Phillips followed up her report by reproducing a letter from John Loftus calling for a congressional investigation of John Negroponte, whom he accused of concealing the information. [ [http://www.melaniephillips.com/diary/?p=1503 The questions that need to be asked about those WMD] April 19, 2007] Salon Magazine columnist Glenn Greenwald wrote disparagingly of them both. [ [http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2007/04/21/wmd_conspiracy/ Right-wing blogs discover massive conspiracy to hide WMDs in Iraq] Salon Magazine April 21, 2007]

Pakistan

Former head of the Indian counter-terrorism division and member of the National Security Advisory Board, B Raman, suggests A.Q. Khan may have assisted in shifting Iraq's WMD to Pakistan. Writing for the South Asia Analysis Group, he cites unnamed Pakistani sources claiming Khan agreed to aid Iraqi intelligence officials "who sought his help" in having some prohibited material airlifted from Syria to Pakistan to prevent it "falling into the hands of the UN inspectors." According to Raman, Pervez Musharraf has been working hard "to see that this is not played up in the Pakistani media." [ [http://www.saag.org/papers10/paper916.html A.Q. Khan Shifted Iraq's WMD To Pakistan?] South Asia Analysis Group February 7, 2004] [ [http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-483777,curpg-2.cms Pak cracked under hard US proof] The Times of India February 8, 2004]

Indian Ocean

In 2003, the Jerusalem Post reported that Iraq's WMD might be found on cargo ships that were cruising aimlessly around the Indian Ocean. [ [http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P1-71893253.html Iraqi WMD may be at sea] Jerusalem Post February 20, 2003]

Iraqi miscalculation

addam lied to retain power

On 14 December Saddam Hussein was captured by U.S. forces. "Time Online Edition" reports that in his first interrogation he was asked whether Iraq had any WMDs. According to an official, his reply was:

"No, of course not, the U.S. dreamed them up itself to have a reason to go to war with us." The interrogator continued along this line, said the official, asking: "if you had no weapons of mass destruction then why not let the U.N. inspectors into your facilities?" Saddam’s reply: "We didn’t want them to go into the presidential areas and intrude on our privacy." [ [http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,561472,00.html Notes from Saddam in custody] Time Online Edition December 14, 2003]
Later, through interrogations in US custody, Saddam revealed that, immediately prior to the start of the 2003 US invasion, he had announced to his generals that there were no WMDs. One theory given currency by Charles Duelfer is that Saddam sent out different signals to different people in order to keep them confused and help stay in power. [ [http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1323994,00.html Facing defeat, Saddam clung to his fantasies] The Observer October 10, 2004]

addam was misled

According to The Guardian in late 2003, British officials in Whitehall began circulating a theory that Saddam Hussein and his senior advisers "may have been hoodwinked" by lower-ranking officers "into believing that Iraq really did possess weapons of mass destruction." And as most of the informers for British intelligence were the same high-level advisers close to Saddam, the British were also fooled. The paper adds that this hypothesis "is open to the interpretation that the government is searching for an excuse, however implausible, for failure to discover any WMD in Iraq." [ [http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,1112467,00.html New theory for Iraq's missing WMD] The Guardian December 24, 2003] Commenting on the findings of the Butler intelligence review six months later, USA Today reported that Britain's Secret Intelligence Service had "shockingly few reliable human sources inside Saddam's regime." [ [http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2004-07-14-both-sides-usat_x.htm U.S., British probes reach similar findings] USA Today July 14,2004]

Documents since captured inside Iraq by coalition forces are reported to reveal Saddam's frustration with weapon inspections. Meeting transcripts record him saying to senior aides: "We don't have anything hidden!" In another, he remarks: "When is this going to end?" And another: "Don't think for a minute that we still have WMD. We have nothing." [ [http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,188665,00.html Transcripts Show Saddam Frustrated Over WMD Claims] Fox News March 22, 2006]

References

External links

* [http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/23/us/23believers.html?ex=1308715200&en=414e2ad8f9ef4ccb&ei=5088 For Diehards, Search for Iraq's W.M.D. Isn't Over] Scott Shane New York Times
* [http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/article_details.php?id=10101 Tom Chatfield examines WMD theories and conspiracies for Prospect magazine]


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