False consensus effect

The false consensus effect is the tendency for people to project their way of thinking onto other people. [cite web
url = http://www.psychologycampus.com/social-psychology/false-consensus.html
title = False Consensus & False Uniqueness
publisher = Psychology Campus.com
accessdate = 2007-11-13 ] In other words, they assume that everyone else thinks the same way they do. This supposed correlation is unsubstantiated by statistical data, leading to the perception of a consensus that does not exist. This logical fallacy involves a group or individual assuming that their own opinions, beliefs and predilections are more prevalent amongst the general public than they really are.

This bias is commonly present in a group setting where one thinks the collective opinion of their own group matches that of the larger population. Since the members of a group reach a consensus and rarely encounter those who dispute it, they tend to believe that everybody thinks the same way.

As an extension, when confronted with evidence that a consensus does not exist, people often assume that the others who do not agree with them are defective in some way. [cite web
url = http://www.spring.org.uk/2007/11/why-we-all-stink-as-intuitive.php
title = Why We All Stink as Intuitive Psychologists: The False Consensus Bias
publisher = PsyBlog
accessdate = 2007-11-13 ] There is no single cause for this cognitive bias; the availability heuristic and self-serving bias have been suggested as at least partial underlying factors. There could also be protective mechanisms behind this phenomenon.

ee also

* Attributional bias
* Overconfidence effect
** Lake Wobegon effect
** List of cognitive biases

References

Further reading

* Ross L., Greene D. & House, P. (1977). The false consensus effect: An egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes. "Journal of Experimental Social Psychology" 13, 279-301.
*Fields, James M., and Howard Schuman, (1976-77) "Public Beliefs about the Beliefs of the Public," Public Opinion Quarterly, 40: 427-448.

External links

* [http://changingminds.org/explanations/theories/false_consensus.htm Changing minds: the false consensus effect]
* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/03/mind-projection.html Overcoming Bias: Mind Projection Fallacy]