Florida's 21st congressional district

Florida's 21st congressional district

Infobox U.S. congressional district
state = Florida
district number = 21


representative = Lincoln Diaz-Balart
party = Republican
english area =
metric area =
percent urban =
percent rural =
population = 639,295
population year = 2000
median income = 41,426
percent white = 82.1
percent black = 7.6
percent asian = 1.8
percent native american = 0.2
percent hispanic = 69.7
percent other race = 0.5
percent blue collar =
percent white collar =
percent gray collar =
cpvi = R+ 6

Florida's 21st congressional district is a congressional district in Florida. The residents of the 21st district have been represented in the United States House of Representatives by Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart since 1993.

George W. Bush received 57 percent of the vote in this district in 2004.Verify source|date=May 2008The district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index score of R+6, which makes it the 5th most Republican-leaning seat in Florida and the most Republican-leaning seat in all of South Florida.

2000 & 2002 Elections

In 2000 and 2002, Lincoln Diaz-Balart ran for re-election without opposition.

2004 & 2006 Elections

Both in 2004 and in 2006, Lincoln Diaz-Balart was unsuccessfully challenged by Frank J. Gonzalez [http://www.electfrank.org] , a Libertarian Party candidate in 2004 and Democrat in 2006. In 2004 Diaz-Balart won with 73% of the vote. In 2006, Diaz-Balart won with 59% of the vote.

In 2004, Gonzalez ran for U.S. House as the Libertarian Party candidate and spent around $12,000 and earned 54,736 votes or 27% of the votes.

In 2006, according to FEC reports, Diaz-Balart spent $920,000 while Gonzalez spent $16,000, a 58 to 1 ratio. Gonzalez managed to earn 45,522 votes or 41% according to the Florida Department of State's Division of Elections website.

2008 election

As of August 1, 2008, the Miami-Dade portion of the district has 260,561 registered voters of which 110,278 are registered Republicans, 85,635 registered Democrats, 55,147 registered No Party Affilation, and 9,501 registered other. [http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/district_stats.pdf Miami-Dade Department of Elections, page 33] As of July 7, 2008, the Broward portion of the district has 60,173 registered voters of which 17,790 are registered Repblicans, 26,988 registered Democrats, 17,790 registered No Party Affiliation, and 2,304 registered Other. [http://http://www.browardsoe.org/items.aspx?id=41 Broward County Department of Elections] Overall, Republicans enjoy a slight (less then 5%) registration advantage in the district over Democrats.

Former Hialeah mayor Raul L. Martinez announced on the America TeVe show "A Mano Limpia" announced that he would run as a Democrat against Diaz Balart in the 2008 election in January 2008.

As of June 30, 2008, Diaz-Balart has raised in 2007-2008 election cycle $1,551,352 with $1,755,490 cash on hand. [http://herndon1.sdrdc.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/] Martinez during the same cycle has raised $1,219,984 and has $1,079,068 cash on hand. [http://herndon1.sdrdc.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/] According to the Raul Martinez campaign the majority of individual contributions have come from registered Republicans. [http://www.raul2008.com/media/press-release/q2_fund_raising.html]

A July 7 poll conducted by a noted Democratic polster, Sergio Bendixen, showed Diaz-Balart ahead of Martinez by a four point margin, 41 to 37 percent, with 22 percent undecided. David Hill, the Diaz-Balart brothers' pollster, said Lincoln's internal polling shows the congressman with a 12-point lead over Martinez and a "double-digit advantage over his opponent in virtually every significant segment of the electorate." [ http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/43384.html ]

On May 22, 2008, Diaz-Balart did not attend a debate hosted by the South Florida AFL-CIO with Martinez due to scheduling and venue issues. [The Miami Herald; "Dade GOP incumbents pull out of debates" by Lesley Clark, May 22, 2008]

On August 1, 2008, a leading Washington analyst, Rothenberg Political Report, reported that they see a "possible re-election trouble for Lincoln Diaz-Balart". [Sun-Sentinel, "Leading Washington analyst sees possible re-election trouble for Lincoln Diaz-Balart" by Anthony Man; August 1, 2008.] Nonetheless, the most recent Rothenberg Political Report (september 30, 2008) rated the seat as "Pure Toss Up." [ [http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/07/2008-house-ratings_29.html Rothenberg Political Report] , as of 2008-07-29] The Cook Political report [ [http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive.php Cook Political Report] , as of 2008-07-31] and CQ Politics [ [http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-house CQ Politics] ] have also rated the district as "Leans Republican," while the Crystal Ball has rated the district as "Likely Republican" [ [http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2008/house Crystal Ball] , as of 2008-07-30]

According to the August 14, 2008 Time magazine article, Lincoln Diaz-Balart faces a competitive race. It also said that "Democratic voter registration in Miami-Dade County, as in other places, is up, and Republican registration is down". [Time Magazine, "Big Trouble in Little Havana" by Tim Padgett, August 14, 2008.]

The Mexican leftist newspaper, La Jornada, stated on August 19th, 2008 that "Lincoln Díaz Balart, ... está en grave riesgo de perder su puesto..." ("Lincoln Diaz Balart,... is in great risk to lose his position..."). [http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2008/08/19/index.php?section=mundo&article=056n1mun La Jornada, "Miami: Se Tambalea El Poder Del Exilio Cubano" by David Brooks; August 19, 2008]

On August 25, 2008, Lincoln Diaz-Balart agreed to debate Martinez, at a Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce event at noon on October 8 [ [http://www.miamiherald.com/news/miami-dade/story/656457.html] ] . On August 26, 2008, Martinez challenged Diaz-Balart to an additional debate, in Colorado. [ The Miami Herald; "Diaz-Balart Jabs on Obama Turf" by Lesley Clark; August 26, 2008, Page 1B [http://www.miamiherald.com/news/miami-dade/story/657874.html] ] .

Martinez has continued to request that Diaz-Balart debate him on television but to no avail [August 25, 2008, "A Mano Limpia" America TV] [August 25, 2008, "Maria Elvira Live" on MegaTV ] .

According to a SurveyUSA poll sponsored by Roll Call conducted in August 2008, Martinez leads Diaz-Balart (48% to 46%) among likely voters. [ SurveyUSA Poll [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac8793ef-2899-49d0-a960-a1be2ff279b6] ] . According to the poll, Diaz-Balart enjoys 70% support from Cuban-Americans in the district. The poll's demographics (which were chosen by the pollster in 2008) are different from those of the district (based on the US census of 2000.) 51% of those questioned were Hispanic (34% of respondents were Cuban and 17% were non-Cuban). The percentage of Hispanics in the district is higher at 69.7%. [ http://projects.washingtonpost.com/elections/keyraces/census/fl/district-21/ ]

References

* The Miami Herald;" 3 Fla Congressional Candidates in Spotlight" by Lesley Clark; August 27, 2008, page A2

External links

* [http://www.lincolndiazbalart.org/ Lincoln Diaz-Balart's campaign site]
* [http://www.raul2008.com/ Raul L. Martinez for Congress campaign site]


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