- Strong inference
Strong Inference is a
model of scientific inquiry developed byJohn R. Platt . [cite journal|journal=Science|volume=146|issue=3642|year=1964|title=Strong inference|author=John R. Platt|url=http://256.com/gray/docs/strong_inference.html] Platt notes that certain fields, such asmolecular biology andhigh-energy physics , seem to adhere strongly to strong inference, with very beneficial results for the rate of progress in those fields.The single hypothesis problem
The problem with single hypotheses was aptly described by Chamberlin in 1897:cquote|The moment one has offered an original explanation for a phenomenon which seems satisfactory, that moment affection for [one’s] intellectual child springs into existence, and as the explanation grows into a definite theory [one’s] parental affections cluster about [the] offspring and it grows more and more dear …. There springs up also unwittingly a pressing of the theory to make it fit the facts and a pressing of the facts to make them fit the theory…
The temptation to misinterpret results that contradict the desired hypothesis is probably irresistible. (Jewett, 2005)
Despite the admonitions of Platt, reviewers of grant-applications often require "A Hypothesis" as part of the proposal (note the singular). Peer-review of research can help avoid the mistakes of single-hypotheses, but only so long as the reviewers are not in the thrall of the same hypothesis. If there is a shared enthrallment among the reviewers in a commonly believed hypothesis, then innovation becomes difficult because alternative hypotheses are not seriously considered, and sometimes not even permitted.
trong Inference
The method, very similar to the
scientific method , is described as:
# Devising alternativehypotheses ;
# Devising a crucialexperiment (or several of them), with alternative possible outcomes, each of which will, as nearly as possible, exclude one or more of the hypotheses;
# Carrying out the experiment so as to get a clean result;
# Recycling the procedure, making subhypotheses or sequential hypotheses to refine the possibilities that remain, and so on.It is also suggested that rather than a single hypothesis which is likely to induce
confirmation bias , researchers propose multiple hypotheses, a method put forth in 1897 byThomas Chrowder Chamberlin .Limitations
A number of limitations of strong inference have been identified. [cite journal|journal=Behavior and Philosophy|year=2001|title=The weaknesses of strong inference|author=William O'Donohue and Jeffrey A Buchanan|url=http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3814/is_200101/ai_n8939725] [cite journal|journal=Perspectives in Biology and Medicine|year=2006|title=Strong Inference: rationale or inspiration?|volume=49|number=2|pages=238–250|author=Rowland H. Davis|url=http://muse.jhu.edu/login?uri=/journals/perspectives_in_biology_and_medicine/v049/49.2davis01.html|doi=10.1353/pbm.2006.0022]
The limitations of Strong-Inference can be corrected by having two preceding phases: 1) an Exploratory Phase, and 2) a Pilot Phase. These Phases then create the critical seed observation(s) upon which one can base alternative hypotheses. [cite journal|year=2005|title=What’s wrong with single hypotheses? Why it is time for Strong-Inference-PLUS|author=Don L. Jewett
url=http://www.pubmedcentral.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=2048741|pmid=17975652]References
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