Kenyan presidential election, 2007

Infobox Election
election_name = Kenya presidential election, 2007
country = Kenya
type = presidential
ongoing = no
previous_election = Kenyan general election, 2002
previous_year = 2002
next_election =
next_year =
election_date = December 27, 2007


candidate1 = Mwai Kibaki
party1 = Party of National Unity (Kenya)
popular_vote1 = 4,578,034 (Government)
4,352,860 (ECK)
percentage1 =


candidate2 = Raila Odinga
party2 = Orange Democratic Movement
popular_vote2 = 4,000,251 (Government)
4,352,993 (ECK)
percentage2 =


candidate3 =
party3 =
popular_vote3 =
percentage3 =
title = President
before_election = Mwai Kibaki
before_party = Party of National Unity (Kenya)
after_election = Mwai Kibaki
after_party = Party of National Unity (Kenya)A presidential election was held as part of the Kenyan general election on December 27 2007; parliamentary elections were held on the same date. [ [http://eastandard.net/archives/?mnu=details&id=1143976542&catid=4 ECK sets poll date as Raila maintains lead] "The Standard", October 26, 2007] Incumbent President Mwai Kibaki was declared the winner and sworn in on December 30, despite opposition leader Raila Odinga's claims of victory. [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7165602.stm "Dozens dead in Kenya poll clashes"] , BBC news("BBC"), December 31, 2007.] [http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/12/31/africa/AF-POL-Kenya-Elections.php "Protests as Kenya's president begins 2nd term after allegations of rigging, deadly violence"] , Associated Press ("International Herald Tribune"), December 31, 2007.] There is a degree of agreement in the international community that the elections were at least partially manipulated. [ [http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080106/kenya_opposition_080107?s_name=&no_ads= CTV.ca | Kenya election was rigged, U.S. envoy says ] ] In July 2008, an exit poll commissioned by the US was released, revealing that Odinga won the election by a comfortable margin of 6%, 46% to 40%, well outside of the exit poll's 1.3% margin of error. The Nation, July 11, 2008 http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgcontententry.asp?category_id=2&newsid=127059 US-funded exit poll says Raila won elections ]

The election was strongly marked by tribalism, with Kibaki a member of the traditionally dominant Kikuyu ethnic group getting much support amongst people of Central Kenya i.e. Kikuyu and neighbouring groups like Embu and Meru. Odinga, as a member of the Luo ethnic group, succeeded in creating a wider base by building a coalition with regional leaders from the Luhya in Western Kenya, Kalenjin from the Rift Valley and Muslim leaders from the Coast Province. The third place candidate, Kalonzo Musyoka, had his base mainly amongst the Kamba. Following the announcement of Kibaki's victory, civil unrest broke out which was often directed against members of Kibaki's ethnic group residing outside their traditional settlement areas. [http://eastandard.net/news/?id=1143977525 Nine to fight it out as Kibaki cleared] "The Standard", November 16, 2007] Fact|date=January 2008

Kenneth Matiba of Saba Saba Asili joined the race after a 10-year political hiatus. Other candidates were Joseph Ngacha Karani (Kenya Patriotic Trust), Nixon Jeremiah Kukubo (Republican Party of Kenya), Pius Muiru (Kenya Peoples’ Party), David Waweru Ng’ethe (Chama Cha Umma) and Nazlin Omar (Workers Congress Party).]

Timeline and preparations

Incumbent president Mwai Kibaki declared on January 26, 2007 his intentions of running for re-election, even though he had previously declared at the 2002 elections that he needed only one term as president. [ [http://eastandard.net/archives/cl/hm_news/news.php?articleid=1143964123 Kibaki declares he is ready for a second presidential term] "The Standard"] At the time ODM-Kenya coalition was expected to field the strongest challenger for Kibaki. The main parties affiliated to ODM-Kenya were LDP and KANU. [ [http://www.eastandard.net/archives/index.php?mnu=details&id=1143975630&catid=289 ODM’s long and bumpy journey] The Standard, October 7, 2007] At the time of the 2002 elections, LDP was part of the NARC movement backing Kibaki, but were dismissed from the cabinet after the 2005 constitutional referendum. [ [http://politics.nationmedia.com/inner.asp?sid=789&page=2 Raila to President: Spare me the blame, I was in your Cabinet for only three years] Daily Nation, October 20, 2007] KANU, on the other hand is a former ruling party, but the former president Daniel arap Moi was among its faction opposing its involvement with the ODM-Kenya coalition. [ [http://www.propertykenya.com/news/439027-no-let-up-in-kanu-row-over-odm.php No Let-Up in Kanu Row Over ODM] Daily Nation, November 17, 2006] KANU and LDP had originally teamed up for the 2005 referendum, under the banner Orange Democratic Movement. [ [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/4510068.stm Q&A: Kenya political crisis] BBC News, December 8, 2007]

ODM-Kenya split in two in August 2007, with one faction (ODM-Kenya) led by Kalonzo Musyoka, while others joined the original ODM. KANU left the coalition. Former president Daniel arap Moi announced his support for the re-election of Kibaki, his former political enemy, in late August, [ [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6966929.stm "Moi throws weight behind Kibaki"] , BBC News, August 28, 2007.] and Uhuru Kenyatta followed the suit and announced his support for Kibaki in mid-September. Kenyatta had earlier vied for presidential candidacy on the ODM ticket before he and his party KANU had ditched the coalition. KANU will field its own parliamentary candidates. [ [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6994501.stm "Ex-rival backs Kibaki re-election"] , BBC News, September 14, 2007.]

Several ODM members vied for presidency, including Kalonzo Musyoka, Raila Odinga, Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto, Najib Balala, Musalia Mudavadi and Joseph Nyagah. ["It’s make or break as ODM leaders start forum to decide on candidate", "Daily Nation", January 11, 2007.] Following the August 2007 split, the ODM-K appointed Musyoka as its candidate on August 31 [Malcolm Webb, [http://www.voanews.com/english/2007-08-31-voa34.cfm "Kenya's Opposition Chooses Presidential Candidate"] , VOA News, August 31, 2007.] [Eric Shimoli and Dave Opiyo, [http://allafrica.com/stories/200708311137.html "Kenya: Kalonzo Picked to Hoist ODM-K Flag"] , "The Nation" (allAfrica.com), September 1, 2007.] and the ODM elected Odinga as its candidate on September 1. [ [http://allafrica.com/stories/200709010028.html "Kenya: It's Raila for President"] , "East Africa Standard" (allAfrica.com), September 1, 2007.]

On September 16 2007, Kibaki announced that he would stand as the candidate of a new alliance called the Party of National Unity, which will include a number of parties, including KANU, [ [http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/09/16/africa/AF-POL-Kenya-Elections.php "Kenyan president announces new party affiliation for re-election bid"] , Associated Press ("International Herald Tribune"), September 16, 2007.] [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6997659.stm "Kenya president eyes re-election"] , BBC News, September 16, 2007.] DP, Narc-Kenya, Ford-Kenya, Ford People, and Shirikisho among others. He began his presidential campaign on September 30 at Nyayo Stadium in Nairobi. [ [http://www.news24.com/News24/Africa/News/0,,2-11-1447_2193347,00.html "Kibaki: I deserve another term"] , AFP (News24.com), September 30, 2007.]

Odinga launched his campaign in Uhuru Park on October 6. [Anthony Kaikai, [http://www.kbc.co.ke/story.asp?ID=45547 "ODM party launches its Presidential campaigns"] , Kenya Broadcasting Corporation, October 6, 2007.] [http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/10/07/africa/AF-GEN-Kenya-Elections.php "Kenya opposition kicks off campaign, says 3 supporters shot"] , Associated Press ("International Herald Tribune"), October 6, 2007.] On the same day, three ODM supporters were shot (one of them fatally), allegedly by bodyguards of Stanley Livondo, who is running as the PNU candidate for Odinga's seat in parliament. Livondo was arrested, along with two of his bodyguards and released later.

In October, Odinga led Kibaki in opinion polls. Two cabinet ministers, first Health Minister Charity Ngilu and then Regional Cooperation Minister John Koech, backed Odinga in October; Kibaki dismissed Ngilu from the cabinet. [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=87&art_id=nw20071011233256900C604201 "Kenyan presidential hopeful gains favour"] , AFP ("IOL"), October 12, 2007.]

Pius Muiru, a bishop and the leader of Kenya Peoples Party (KPP), officially launched his bid for the presidency on October 21, 2007 at Kamukunji grounds. [http://eastandard.net/news/?id=1143976339 Bishop tells voters to send off Kibaki and his team] The Standard, October 22, 2007]

Parliament was dissolved on Tuesday October 23rd, paving way for the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) to announce the election date. [Martin Mutua and Edith Fortunate, [http://eastandard.net/news/?id=1143976374 "Curtain falls on Ninth Parliament"] , "The Standard", October 23, 2007.] The date was officially announced on October 26, 2007 by the ECK, stating the elections would be held on Thursday December 27, 2007. [ [http://politics.nationmedia.com/inner.asp?pcat=NEWS&cat=TOP&sid=824 Kenya Elections set for Dec 27] "Nationmedia.com", October 26, 2007]

Opinion polls in late October put Odinga at 50% support, Kibaki at 39%, and Musyoka at 8%. [ [http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10063982 "Kenya: Could the president be ousted?"] , "The Economist", 1 November 2007] The poll released in early November put Odinga at 45%, Kibaki at 41% and Musyoka at 11%, while on November 23 a poll placed Odinga and Kibaki at about the same level, with 43.6% and 43.3% support respectively. [ [http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=87&art_id=nw20071123140028205C728491 "Kibaki neck-and-neck with challenger"] , Reuters ("IOL"), November 23, 2007.]

Presidential candidates presented their nomination papers on the November 14th and 15th to the ECK and 9 candidates were cleared to be on the ballot in December.Economy
* Infrastructure
* Corruption (see Wikileaks Kenya entry [http://www.wikileaks.org/wiki/Category:Kenya] )
* Majimbo/Ugatuzi (federalism & devolution)
* Free High school Education
* Universal Health care
* Constitution (Odinga promised a new constitution within six months of taking office [ [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7092398.stm BBC NEWS | Africa | Kenyans ready for December poll ] ] )

Opinion polls

"*For a documentation of more opinion polls in the runup to the Kenyan election see Polls before the Kenyan elections 2007"

NB - In addition to receiving the largest number of votes in absolute terms, a successful presidential candidate must also win 25% or more of the vote in at least five of Kenya's eight provinces to avoid a runoff.

Election observers statement

The following account is drawn from the statements of four of the five domestic election observers allowed into the verification process the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) afforded political party representatives the night before the announcement of the results for the Presidency. Kenyans for Peace with Truth and Justice (KPTJ)

* [ftp://ftp.wizzy.com/pub/wizzy/kenya/KPTJPress18Jan.ped.pdf Count Down to Deception: 30 Hours that Destroyed Kenya]
* [ftp://ftp.wizzy.com/pub/wizzy/kenya/KPTJelectionobs.pdf Kenyan Elections Observers’ Log: December 29-30, 2007]
* [ftp://ftp.wizzy.com/pub/wizzy/kenya/KPTJdata2.pdf Kenyan Elections Observers' Log: the cost of anomalies, malpractices and illegalities noted to voters and their votes (spreadsheet)]
* [ftp://ftp.wizzy.com/pub/wizzy/kenya/KPTJdata1.pdf Kenya 2007 General Election: Comparison of Total Parliamentary vs. Total Presidential Votes Cast ECK Figures*(spreadsheet)]

Aftermath

Riots erupted in Kenya after Kibaki was declared re-elected as President. Certain opposition supporters, angered by alleged electoral manipulation by President Kibaki, allegedly incited civil unrest. The unrest involved ethnic violence between members of different tribes, particularly between the Kikuyu and the Luo.cite news |url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7165602.stm |title=Scores Dead in Kenya Poll Clashes |publisher=BBC |date=2007-12-31 |accessdate=2007-12-31 ] Eventually, a power-sharing agreement, according to which Kibaki would remain President and Odinga would gain the new post of Prime Minister, was reached in late February 2008, and a coalition government, with an equal number of ministers for the PNU and the ODM, was named in April.

January 2008 Government

After being sworn in as President, Kibaki named a partial Cabinet on January 8, 2008, composed of 17 members of parliament from his party PNU and ODM-Kenya which entered into a coalition agreement, along with KANU. A number of further cabinet slots were left temporarily open, presumably to give space for negotiations with the opposition ODM which, however, immediately challenged the constitutionality of this government.

This cabinet consisted of:
*(1) Vice President and Minister for Home Affairs: Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka
*(2) Minister of State for Provincial Administration and Internal Security, Office of the President: Professor George Saitoti
*(3) Minister of State for Defence, Office of the President: Yussuf Mohamed Haji
*(4) Minister of State for Special Programmes, Office of the President: Dr. Naomi Namsi Shaban
*(5) Minister for Public Service, Office of the President : Asman Abongotum Kamama
*(6) Minister for Finance : Amos Muhinga Kimunya
*(7) Minister for Education : Professor Sam Ongeri
*(8) Minister for Foreign Affairs : Moses Wetangula
*(9) Minister for Local Government : Uhuru Kenyatta
*(10) Minister for Information and Communications : Samuel Lesuron Poghisio
*(11) Minister for Water and Irrigation : John Munyes
*(12) Minister for Energy : Kiraitu Murungi
*(13) Minister for Roads and Public Works : John Njoroge Michuki
*(14) Minister for Science and Technology : Noah M. Wekesa
*(15) Minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs : Martha Karua
*(16) Minister for East African Community : Dr. Wilfred Machage
*(17) Minister for Transport: Chirau Ali Mwakwere

US Exit Poll

While few reports mentioned it, the US, acting through USAID commissioned the International Republican Institute, to conduct an exit poll during the election. IRI initially did not have confidence in the integrity of the poll data. It therefore believed the poll to be invalid and decided not to release the poll. However, after an audit of the poll data file, IRI reversed its earlier position and released the poll in July 2008. [IRI Statement on Kenya Election Day Poll (http://www.iri.org/africa/kenya/2008-08-14-kenya.asp)] [ Memo from Bob Carpenter, American Viewpoint to IRI [http://www.iri.org/africa/kenya/pdfs/7-7-08%20memo%20from%20Bob%20Carpenter,%20American%20Viewpoint.pdf"Subject: Kenya Exit Poll"] , July 7, 2008]

The poll indicated that Odinga won the election by a margin of 6%, 46% to 40%, well outside of the exit poll's 1.3% margin of error. [ International Republican Institute (IRI) Strategic Public Relations and Research, [http://www.iri.org/africa/kenya/pdfs/2008%20August%2014%20Kenyan%20Election%20Day%20Poll,%20December%2027,%202007.pdf"Kenya Election day Poll"] ,www.iri.org, December 27, 2007.]

References

External links

* [http://www.communication.go.ke/elections/default.asp Election results - Government Website]
* [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7175694.stm BBC summary (08-01-2008): "Kenya's dubious election"]
* [http://www.eck.or.ke Electoral Commission of Kenya -slow in updating- ]
* [http://www.electionkenya.com Electionkenya.com -preelection page, shows no results-]
* [http://politics.nationmedia.com Daily Nation - Kenya Elections 2007 - results are no more visible]
* [http://eastandard.net/electionplatform The Standard - Election Platform - results not updated]
* [http://www.monitor.co.ug/artman/publish/news/How_Kenya_polls_were_messed_up.shtml How Kenya polls were messed up] - by Tabu Butagira & Jeff Otieno, Monitor, Uganda January 3, 2008
* [http://www.pambazuka.org/actionalerts/comments/776/ Count Down to Deception: 30 Hours that Destroyed Kenya - KPTJ] Pambazuka News - check pdfs at bottom