Jobs created during U.S. presidential terms

Politicians and pundits frequently refer to the ability of the President of the United States to "create jobs" in the U.S. during his term in office. The numbers are most often seen during the election season or in regard to a President's economic legacy. The numbers typically used and most frequently cited by economists are total nonfarm payroll employment numbers as collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on a monthly and annual basis.

Methodology

The job numbers are collected via a survey of thousands of businesses. The sample establishments are drawn from private nonfarm businesses such as factories, offices, and stores, as well as federal, state, and local government entities. Employees on nonfarmpayrolls are those who received pay for any part of the reference pay period (which includes the 12th of the month), including persons on paid leave.

As of 2005, the sample includes about 160,000 businesses and government agencies covering approximately 400,000 individual worksites. These job counts are monthly estimates based on data provided by employers (adjusted annually to a near census of total jobs provided by mandatory unemployment insurance filings) and also reflect those with multiple employers who are counted with each employer.

Controversy

The exact usefulness of these numbers is debated. They only include nonfarm payroll employment, which excludes certain types of jobs, notably the self-employed. Additionally, for at least the first eight months of a President's term, he inherits a budget proposed and implemented by his predecessor (as well as an overall economy which may be in decline or recovery).

Moreover, according to the United States Constitution, the United States Congress is responsible for government spending and thus, regardless of Presidential advocacy, bears constitutional responsibility for such things as spending and tax policy that have enormous effects upon the economy. Furthermore, it is debatable how much effect any President realistically could have on a system as large, diverse, and complex as the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, the nonfarm payrolls number is the one most frequently used in the media and by economists.

Another factor to consider is population growth, which provides opportunities for the creation of jobs, rendering these figures less impressive, or in the case of the already subpar, clearly insufficient.

For information about the controversy surrounding the accuracy of this survey, see [http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2004-08-25-kane-grossman_x.htm here] .

Job creation by term

Numbers listed here are measured from January of the year at the beginning of the term to the January four years later, when the term ends.

*In Thousands**Approximate

For information on the United States public debt divided by Gross Domestic Product by Presidential term, see National Debt by U.S. presidential terms

External links and references

*Numbers for U.S. total employment and other statistics are available [http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=CES0000000001 here] at the [http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?bls Bureau of Labor Statistics] web site.
* [http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm BLS Employment Situation Explanatory Note]
* [http://americanassembler.com/feature_pics/want_jobs_big.gifAverage annual increase by President (out of date)]

JOB GROWTH FOR DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTS.

Since Truman's election in 1948, Democrats have occupied the White House for 24 years, and Republicans for 36. In Democratic years, according the the chart above, job growth per year has been 2.26 million; and in Republican years, 1.07 million.