Gambler's conceit

Gambler's conceit

Gambler's conceit is defined by economist David Ewing as the mistaken belief that one will be able to stop performing a risky action while one continues to succeed or win at it. This belief frequently arises during games of chance, such as casino games, or stock market trading. The individual believes they will be a net winner at the game, and able to avoid gambler's ruin, by exerting the self-control necessary to stop playing while still ahead in winnings. This is frequently expressed as "I'll stop when I'm ahead." This is irrational since the action contributing to the winning situation (ie. playing) is continuing to produce the desired result and further is being rewarded.

However, since most casino games have a house edge, and if the individual is winning in such a game, he does in fact "beat the house" if he leaves. If said gambler were to continue betting then he would succumb to gambler's ruin. Eventually he would lose all his money, so by quitting the game, he is taking money out of the game which was the house's and is statistically favored for the house to win back. This situation can be seen in the Martin Scorsese movie "Casino" where Robert De Niro's character makes sure that a high stakes gambler continues to gamble to ensure that the money he won goes back to the casino. On a smaller scale, this situation is seen whenever a winning gambler is offered a drink "on the house" to encourage him or her to keep gambling.

Once in the throes of a winning streak the individual may become convinced that it is their skill, not blind chance, causing their winnings, or good luck on their side, and thus it seems be senseless to stop while still continuing to win. The gambler's conceit is frequently paired with the gambler's fallacy, convincing losing players that it is necessary to continue playing because their luck must soon turn accordingly.

Another example of "Gambler's Conceit" is in cases of harmful physical addictions, such as smoking, alcohol, or heroin. Although physical ailments or death are nearly certain if the addict continues to use, the addict rationalizes that they'll be able to quit before becoming ill, while still receiving the benefit of their physical addiction until then. Thus, while continuing a risky action the addict believes they will be able to stop while continuing to perform it.

See also

* Gambler's fallacy
* Inverse gambler's fallacy
* Gambler's ruin
* Behavioral Economics


Wikimedia Foundation. 2010.

Игры ⚽ Поможем сделать НИР

Look at other dictionaries:

  • Gambler's fallacy — The Gambler s fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy (because its most famous example happened in a Monte Carlo Casino in 1913)[1], and also referred to as the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that if deviations from… …   Wikipedia

  • Gambler's ruin — The basic meaning of gambler s ruin is a gambler s loss of the last of his bank of gambling money and consequent inability to continue gambling. In probability theory, the term sometimes refers to the fact that a gambler will almost certainly go… …   Wikipedia

  • Gambling — Gamble redirects here. For other uses, see Gamble (disambiguation). Caravaggio, The Cardsharps, c. 1594 Ga …   Wikipedia

  • List of mathematics articles (G) — NOTOC G G₂ G delta space G networks Gδ set G structure G test G127 G2 manifold G2 structure Gabor atom Gabor filter Gabor transform Gabor Wigner transform Gabow s algorithm Gabriel graph Gabriel s Horn Gain graph Gain group Galerkin method… …   Wikipedia

  • Forex scam — A forex scam is any trading scheme used to defraud individual traders by convincing them that they can expect to gain a high profit by trading in the foreign exchange market. Currency trading has become the fraud du jour, according to Michael… …   Wikipedia

  • Narcissistic supply — is a concept in some psychoanalytic theories which describes a type of admiration, interpersonal support or sustenance drawn by an individual from his or her environment (especially from carers, codependents and others). Contents 1 Fenichel,… …   Wikipedia

  • South Asian arts — Literary, performing, and visual arts of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. Myths of the popular gods, Vishnu and Shiva, in the Puranas (ancient tales) and the Mahabharata and Ramayana epics, supply material for representational and… …   Universalium

  • Juan de Tassis y Peralta, 2nd Count of Villamediana — Don Juan de Tassis y Peralta, 2nd Count of Villamediana, (es: Don Juan de Tassis y Peralta, segundo conde de Villamediana ) (1582 August 21, 1622), was a Spanish poet. In Spain he is simply known as Conde de Villamediana .He was born at Lisbon… …   Wikipedia

  • literature — /lit euhr euh cheuhr, choor , li treuh /, n. 1. writings in which expression and form, in connection with ideas of permanent and universal interest, are characteristic or essential features, as poetry, novels, history, biography, and essays. 2.… …   Universalium

Share the article and excerpts

Direct link
Do a right-click on the link above
and select “Copy Link”