Demographics of Estonia

The demographics of Estonia in the twenty-first century are the result of historical trends over more than a thousand years, just as for most European countries, but have been disproportionately affected by events in the last half of the twentieth century. Impact from the rise and fall of the Soviet Union, including the annexation and eventual independence of Estonia, has had a major effect on Estonia's ethnic makeup and educational achievement.

Languages spoken in Estonia are largely reflective of the ethnic groups composing the country, and thus have changed with historical trends affecting the ethnic makeup of the country. Religion plays a small part in the lives of most Estonians, largely as a result of the Soviet occupation from 1944–1991.

Overall, the quality of life indices for Estonia are reflective of a modern industrial state, with one major exception: The population of Estonia is shrinking. While there are other European countries like Estonia with a birthrate that is at less than replacement levels, Estonia lacks the immigration found, for example, in Germany. As such, the population is on a slow downward trend. However, in the most recent years the decline has slowed down considerably and according to preliminary figures the population stabilized in 2010.^[1] If the current trends continue, some population growth can be foreseen for the coming years.

Historical ties

See also: History of Estonia

Estonians have strong ties to the Nordic countries and Germany stemming from the strong cultural and religious influences gained over centuries during Danish, German and Swedish rule and settlement. This highly literate society places strong emphasis upon education, which is free and compulsory until age 16.

In the twentieth century, Estonia's ethnic makeup was altered radically by policies implemented by the Soviet government. Large numbers of ethnic Russians were incentivized to move into the non-Russian republics, including Estonia. The population was further altered by Joseph Stalin's mass deportations and executions while many people simply left as a result of World War II.

Population

Population decline in Estonia

Population of Estonia (1970–2010). Data by Statistics Estonia (2010).^[1]

Natural population increase of Estonia from 1945–2008. Data is taken from Statistics Estonia.^[2]

•   Number of births
•   Number of deaths
•   Natural population increase

External migration of Estonia from 2000–2009. Data is taken from Statistics Estonia.^[3]

•   Number of immigrants
•   Number of emigrants
•   Total external migration

According to data from Statistics Estonia, the population of Estonia is shrinking. While there are other European countries like Estonia with a birthrate that is below replacement levels, Estonia lacks immigration to compensate for the negative natural growth. In fact, the number of emigrants is larger than the number of immigrants. As such, the population is on a slow downward trend. The population increased from 1,351,640 in January 1970 to 1,570,599 in January 1990. Since 1990, Estonia lost about 15% of its population (230,000 people). The population decreased to 1,340,194 in January 2011, which is even lower than the number of people that lived in Estonia in 1970.

• 1,340,194 (January 1, 2011; Statistics Estonia)^[1]
• 1,340,415 (January 1, 2009; Statistics Estonia)^[4][5]
• 1,376,743 (March 31, 2000; last census)^[6]

Although there is a downward population curve, explained by a larger death than birth rate, as well as a larger number of emigrants than immigrants, the line graph of the natural population increase shows the rate of population decrease is slowly diminishing.

Age structure

Age structure of Estonia from 1970–2010. Data is taken from Statistics Estonia.^[1]

  Age: 0–14

  Age: 15–64

  Age: 65+

Population pyramid of Estonia (in thousands) from 2009. Data is from January 1, 2009 and taken from Statistics Estonia.^[1]

Between 1970 and 1990 the age structure of Estia was rather stable with around 22% of the population in the age group 0–14 years, 66% between 15 and 65, while 12% was 65 years or older [1]. Due to the low birth rates after 1990, the proportion of the population 0–14 years of age dropped to 15% in 2009, while the proportion of 65 years or older gradually increased to 17% in 2009. The proportion of the age group 15-64 also slightly increased to 68% in 2009.

Births and deaths

From 1947–1989 the number of births was higher than the number of deaths, but from 1990 onwards the number of deaths outnumbered the number of births. The crude birth rate of 2008 was 11.76 (15,763 births) and the crude death rate of 2008 was 12.00 (16,081 deaths), making the rate of natural increase −0.24 (−318).^[2] For more detailed historic data, see the table of birth and death rates below.

Total fertility rate

Between 1970 and 1990, the total fertility rate (TFR) was little over 2 children born per woman [2]. A fast decrease of the TFR occurred after independence. In 1998 the lowest rate was recorded: 1.28 children born per women. The TFR slightly recovered in the subsequent years. The TFR was 1.66 in 2008 en 1.63 in 2009.

Infant mortality rate

The infant mortality rate in Estonia has decreased considerably during the past decades. In 1970 the rate was 17.7 per 1,000 liver births [3]. The rate decreased to 17.1 in 1980, 12.3 in 1990 and 8.4 in 2000. The lowest infant mortality rate was recorded in 2009: 3.6.

Life expectancy at birth

Life expectancy in Estonia is lower than in most Western European countries. During the Soviet era life expactancy in males was between 64 en 66 years and in females between 73 and 75 years [4]. After the independence, life expectancy decreased for a number of years. In 1994, the lowest life expectancy was recorded: 60.5 years in males and 72.8 in females. After 1994, life expectancy gradually increased to reach 69.8 years in males and 80.1 in females in 2009.

Migration

As the cumulative negative natural growth was about 82,000 during 1991-2010, the remainder of the population decline of Estonia since 1990 (230,000 people in total) was caused by emigration (150,000 people or about 10% of the population of Estonia in 1990). Mainly ethnic Russians, Ukrainians and Belarussians emigrated. Consequently the proportion of these ethnic groups decreased as can be seen in the results of the 2000 census (see below). Data from 2000–2009 also shows that the number of emigrants is larger than the number of immigrants, but on a much lower lever than in the 1990s.^[3]

Ethnic groups

See also: Estonian Swedes, Baltic Germans, Baltic Russians, Russians in Estonia, Armenians in Estonia, Võros, and Setos

Today, Estonia is a ethnically fairly diverse country, ranking 97th out of 239 countries and territories in 2001 study by Kok Kheng Yeoh.^[7] In 2008, thirteen of Estonia's fifteen counties were over 80% ethnic Estonian. The counties with the highest percentage Estonians are Hiiu County (98.4%) and Saare County (98.3%). However, in Harju County (which includes the national capital, Tallinn) and Ida-Viru County, ethnic Estonians make up only 59.6% (55.0% in Tallinn) and 19.7% of the population, respectively. In those two counties, Russians account for 32.4% (36.4% in Tallinn) and 71.2% of the population, respectively. In the nation as a whole, Russians make up 25.6% of the total population.^[8]

After gaining independence following World War I a population census was held in 1922 and 1934. At that time Estonians were still the predominant ethnic group, while all others constituted 12% of the population of Estonia.

Major Jewish communities were present in Estonia between 1918 and 1940 in Tallinn, Pärnu, Kilingi-Nõmme, Narva, Tartu, Valga, and Võru.^[9]

Population of Estonia according to ethnic group 1922–2006

Ethnic group	census 19221		census 19341		census 19592		census 19703		census 19794		census 19895		census 2000 [5]		20096
	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%
Estonians	969,976	87.6	992,520	88.1	892,653	74.6	925,157	68.2	947,812	64.7	963,281	61.5	930,219	67.9	921,484	68.7
Russians	91,109	8.2	92,656	8.2	240,227	20.1	334,620	24.7	408,778	27.9	474,834	30.3	351,178	25.6	342,966	25.6
Ukrainians	—		92	0.0	15,769	1.3	28,086	2.1	36,044	2.5	48,271	3.1	29,012	2.1	27,878	2.1
Belarusians	—		—		10,930	0.9	18,732	1.4	23,461	1.6	27,711	1.8	17,241	1.3	15,717	1.2
Finns	401	0.0	1,088	0.1	16,699	1.4	18,537	1.4	17,753	1.2	16,622	1.1	11,837	0.9	10,767	0.8
Tatars	—		166	0.0	1,534	0.1	2,204	0.2	3,195	0.2	4,058	0.3	2,582	0.2	2,461	0.2
Latvians	1,966	0.2	5,435	0.5	2,888	0.2	3,286	0.2	3,963	0.3	3,135	0.2	2,330	0.2	2,199	0.2
Poles	969	0.1	1,608	0.1	2,256	0.2	2,651	0.2	2,897	0.2	3,008	0.2	2,193	0.2	2,035	0.2
Jews	4,566	0.4	4,434	0.4	5,433	0.5	5,282	0.4	4,954	0.3	4,613	0.3	2,145	0.2	1,830	0.1
Lithuanians	436	0.0	253	0.0	1,616	0.1	2,356	0.2	2,379	0.2	2,568	0.2	2,116	0.2	2,072	0.2
Germans	18,319	1.7	16,346	1.5	670	0.1	7,850	0.6	3,944	0.3	3,466	0.2	1,870	0.1	1,905	0.1
Swedes	7,850	0.7	7,641	0.7	—		435	0.0	254	0.0	297	0.0	300	0.0	—
Others	11,467	1.0	4,266	0.4	6,116	0.5	6,883	0.5	9,042	0.6	13,798	0.9	17,0297	1.2	9,101	0.7
Total	1,107,059		1,126,413		1,196,791		1,356,079		1,464,476		1,565,662		1,370,052		1,340,415
1 Source: [6]. 2 Source: [7]. 3 Source: [8]. 4 Source: [9]. 5 Source: [10]. 6 Source: [11] 7 including 1,444 Armenians, 880 Azeri, 645 Moldavians, 562 Mordvins, 542 Romani, 495 Chuvash, 430 Georgians, 430 Karelians, 358 Izhorians, 245 Mari, 241 Udmurts, 204 Bulgarians, 172 Hungarians, 169 Koreans, 152 Bashkirs, 150 Greeks, 138 Komi, 133 US Americans, 132 Uzbeks, 127 Kazakhs, 121 Lezghins, 116 Ossetians, 1,224 others (all less than 100) and 7,919 ethnicity unknown

As a result of the aforementioned Soviet policies, the share of ethnic Estonians in the population resident within currently defined boundaries of Estonia dropped to 61.5% in 1989, compared to 88% in 1934.^[10] But in the decade following the reconstitution of independence, large scale emigration by ethnic Russians, as well as ethnic groups of other former Soviet countries, and the removal of the Russian military bases in 1994 caused the proportion of ethnic Estonians in Estonia to increase from 61.5% in 1989 to 68.7% in 2008. In the same period the proportion of ethnic Russians decreased from 30.0% to 25.6%, the proportion of ethnic Ukrainians decreased from 3.1% to 2.1%, and the proportion of ethnic Belarusians decreased from 1.8% to 1.2%.^[8][10]

Citizenship of the population of Estonia in 2010. Data is taken from Statistics Estonia.^[11]

  Estonian: 1.148.895

  Russian: 95.939

  Others: 21.517

  Undetermined: 99.173

As of 2008, the largest ethnic groups in Estonia are Estonians (68.7%), Russians (25.6%), Ukrainians (2.1%), Belarusians (1.2%), and Finns (0.8%). These five groups made up 98.4% of Estonia's population.^[8]

Languages

Many languages are spoken in Estonia, including Estonian (official), Russian, Ukrainian, English, Finnish, German and others.

Estonian and Finnish are closely related, belonging to the same Finnic branch of the Uralic language family. Nevertheless, the two languages are not mutually intelligible, although educated native speakers can read the other language with a greater or lesser degree of understanding. Estonian and Finnish are only distantly related to the Hungarian language.

Written with the Latin alphabet, Estonian is the language of the Estonian people and the official language of the country. One-third of the standard vocabulary is derived from adding suffixes to root words. The oldest known examples of written Estonian originate in 13th century chronicles. During the Soviet era, the Russian language was imposed in parallel to, and often instead of, Estonian in official use.

Religion

According to the most recent Eurobarometer Poll 2005,^[12] 16% of Estonian citizens responded that "they believe there is a god", whereas 54% answered that "they believe there is some sort of spirit or life force" and 26% that "they do not believe there is any sort of spirit, god, or life force". This, according to the survey, would have made Estonians the most non-religious people in the then 25-member European Union. A survey conducted in 2006–2008 by Gallup showed that 14% of Estonians answered positively to the question: "Is religion an important part of your daily life?", which was the lowest among 143 countries polled.^[13] Historically, however, Estonia used to be a stronghold of Lutheranism due to its strong links to the Nordic countries.^{[citation needed]}

Less than a third of the population define themselves as believers, of those the majority are Lutheran, whereas the Russian minority is Eastern Orthodox. Ancient equinoctial traditions (like St John's Day) are held in high regard. In 2000, according to the census, 29.2% of the population considered themselves to be related to any religion, thereof:^[14]

• 13.6% Lutheran Christians
• 12.8% Orthodox Christians
• 6,009 Baptists
• 5,745 Roman Catholics
• 4,268 Jehovah's Witnesses
• 2,648 Pentecostals
• 2,515 Old Believers
• 1,561 Adventists
• 1,455 Methodists
• 1,387 Muslims
• 5,008 followers of other religions

There are also a number of smaller Protestant, Jewish, and Buddhist groups. The organisation Maavalla Koda unites adherents of animist traditional religions.^[15][16][17]

Table of birth and death rates

Source: Statistics Estonia

	Average population (x 1000)	Live births	Deaths	Natural change	Crude birth rate (per 1000)	Crude death rate (per 1000)	Natural change (per 1000)
1914	1,197	26,865	20,882	5,983	22.4	17.4	5.0
1915	1,188	24,680	21,841	2,839	20.8	18.4	2.4
1916	1,154	21,282	25,429	−4,147	18.4	22.0	−3.6
1917	1,120	18,333	27,336	−9,003	16.4	24.4	−8.0
1918	1,086	21,659	32,488	−10,829	19.9	29.9	−10.0
1919	1,064	18,456	28,800	−10,344	17.3	27.1	−9.7
1920	1,068	19,625	21,363	−1,738	18.4	20.0	−1.6
1921	1,087	22,067	17,143	4,924	20.3	15.8	4.5
1922	1,102	22,255	18,401	3,854	20.2	16.7	3.5
1923	1,111	22,347	16,630	5,717	20.1	15.0	5.1
1924	1,116	21,441	16,918	4,523	19.2	15.2	4.1
1925	1,117	20,445	16,680	3,765	18.3	14.9	3.4
1926	1,117	19,977	18,047	1,900	17.9	16.2	1.7
1927	1,116	19,705	19,356	500	17.7	17.3	0.4
1928	1,116	20,064	17,785	2,279	18.0	15.9	2.0
1929	1,116	19,110	20,178	−1,068	17.1	18.1	−1.0
1930	1,116	19,471	16,610	2,861	17.4	14.9	2.6
1931	1,118	19,509	18,077	1,432	17.4	16.2	1.3
1932	1,122	19,742	16,641	3,101	17.6	14.8	2.8
1933	1,124	18,208	16,472	1,736	16.2	14.7	1.5
1934	1,126	17,305	15,853	1,452	15.4	14.1	1.3
1935	1,129	17,891	16,864	1,027	15.8	14.9	0.9
1936	1,130	18,222	17,594	628	16.1	15.6	0.6
1937	1,131	18,190	16,614	1,576	16.1	14.7	1.4
1938	1,133	18,453	16,496	1,957	16.3	14.6	1.7
1939	1,128	18,475	17,101	1,374	16.4	15.2	1.2
1940	1,096	18,407	19,024	−617	16.8	17.4	−0.6
1941	1,044	19,574	23,702	−4,128	18.8	22.7	−4.0
1942	1,017	19,242	20,276	−1,034	18.9	19.9	−1.0
1943	1,006	16,001	18,120	−2,119	15.9	18.0	−2.1
1944	990	15,180	24,700	−9,520	15.3	24.9	−9.6
1945	879	14,968	20,708	−5,740	17.0	23.6	−6.5
1946	928	19,408	19,969	−561	20.9	21.5	−0.6
1947	977	22,721	21,492	1,229	23.3	22.0	1.3
1948	1,026	21,777	17,549	4,228	21.2	17.1	4.1
1949	1,074	21,770	16,730	5,040	20.3	15.6	4.7
1950	1,101	20,279	15,817	4,462	18.4	14.4	4.1
1951	1,114	20,730	15,354	5,376	18.6	13.7	4.8
1952	1,126	21,111	15,817	5,294	18.7	14.0	4.7
1953	1,138	20,146	14,420	5,726	17.7	12.7	5.0
1954	1,149	20,909	13,981	6,928	18.2	12.2	6.0
1955	1,160	20,786	13,638	7,148	17.9	11.8	6.2
1956	1,171	19,660	12,748	6,912	16.8	10.9	5.9
1957	1,181	19,509	13,026	6,483	16.5	11.0	5.5
1958	1,192	19,598	12,971	6,627	16.4	10.9	5.6
1959	1,203	19,938	13,130	6,808	16.5	10.9	5.7
1960	1,216	20,187	12,738	7,449	16.6	10.5	6.1
1961	1,229	20,230	13,036	7,194	16.5	10.6	5.9
1962	1,243	19,959	13,495	6,464	16.1	10.9	5.2
1963	1,258	19,275	13,251	6,024	15.3	10.5	4.8
1964	1,276	19,629	12,754	6,875	15.4	10.0	5.4
1965	1,291	18,909	13,520	5,389	14.6	10.5	4.2
1966	1,303	18,629	13,800	4,829	14.3	10.6	3.7
1967	1,314	18,671	13,699	4,972	14.2	10.4	3.8
1968	1,327	19,782	14,225	5,557	14.9	10.7	4.2
1969	1,345	20,781	15,150	5,631	15.5	11.3	4.2
1970	1,360	21,552	15,186	6,366	15.8	11.2	4.7
1971	1,377	22,118	15,038	7,080	16.1	10.9	5.1
1972	1,393	21,757	15,520	6,237	15.6	11.1	4.5
1973	1,406	21,239	15,573	5,666	15.1	11.1	4.0
1974	1,418	21,461	15,393	6,068	15.1	10.9	4.3
1975	1,429	21,360	16,572	4,788	14.9	11.6	3.4
1976	1,440	21,801	17,351	4,450	15.1	12.0	3.1
1977	1,450	21,977	17,094	4,883	15.2	11.8	3.4
1978	1,460	21,842	17,812	4,030	15.0	12.2	2.8
1979	1,468	21,879	18,062	3,817	14.9	12.3	2.6
1980	1,477	22,204	18,199	4,005	15.0	12.3	2.7
1981	1,488	22,937	18,349	4,588	15.4	12.3	3.1
1982	1,498	23,128	17,893	5,235	15.4	11.9	3.5
1983	1,509	24,155	18,190	5,965	16.0	12.1	4.0
1984	1,519	24,234	19,086	5,148	16.0	12.6	3.4
1985	1,529	23,630	19,343	4,287	15.5	12.7	2.8
1986	1,540	24,106	17,986	6,120	15.7	11.7	4.0
1987	1,552	25,086	18,279	6,807	16.2	11.8	4.4
1988	1,562	25,060	18,551	6,509	16.0	11.9	4.2
1989	1,568	24,318	18,536	5,762	15.5	11.8	3.7
1990	1,569	22,304	19,531	2,778	14.2	12.4	1.8
1991	1,561	19,413	19,715	−302	12.4	12.6	−0.2
1992	1,533	18,038	20,126	−2,088	11.8	13.1	−1.4
1993	1,494	15,253	21,286	−6,033	10.2	14.2	−4.0
1994	1,463	14,176	22,212	−8,036	9.7	15.2	−5.5
1995	1,437	13,509	20,828	−7,319	9.4	14.5	−5.1
1996	1,416	13,242	19,020	−5,778	9.4	13.4	−4.1
1997	1,400	12,577	18,572	−5,995	9.0	13.3	−4.3
1998	1,386	12,167	19,445	−7,278	8.8	14.0	−5.3
1999	1,376	12,425	18,447	−6,022	9.0	13.4	−4.4
2000	1,369	13,067	18,403	−5,336	9.5	13.4	−3.9
2001	1,364	12,632	18,516	−5,884	9.3	13.6	−4.3
2002	1,359	13,001	18,355	−5,354	9.6	13.5	−3.9
2003	1,354	13,036	18,152	−5,116	9.6	13.4	−3.8
2004	1,349	13,992	17,685	−3,693	10.4	13.1	−2.7
2005	1,346	14,350	17,316	−2,966	10.7	12.9	−2.2
2006	1,344	14,877	17,316	−2,439	11.1	12.9	−1.8
2007	1,342	15,775	17,409	−1,634	11.8	13.0	−1.2
2008	1,341	16,028	16,675	−647	12.0	12.4	−0.5
2009	1,340	15,763	16,081	−318	11.8	12.0	−0.2
2010	1,340	15,825	15,790	35	11.8	11.8	0.0

See also

• Estonianization
• Baltic Germans
• Estonian Swedes
• Russians in Estonia
• Võros
• Aging of Europe

References

1. ^ ^{a b c d e} "Population by sex and age group, 1 January". Statistics Estonia. 2010-01-22. http://pub.stat.ee/px-web.2001/Dialog/varval.asp?ma=PO021&ti=POPULATION+BY+SEX+AND+AGE+GROUP%2C+1+JANUARY&path=../I_Databas/Population/01Population_indicators_and_composition/04Population_figure_and_composition/&lang=1. Retrieved 2010-03-29. 
2. ^ ^{a b} "Births, deaths and natural increase". Statistics Estonia. 2009-05-12. http://pub.stat.ee/px-web.2001/Dialog/varval.asp?ma=PO030&ti=BIRTHS%2C+DEATHS+AND+NATURAL+INCREASE&path=../I_Databas/Population/01Population_indicators_and_composition/02Main_demographic_indicators/&lang=1. Retrieved 2009-09-30. 
3. ^ ^{a b} "Migration by administrative unit/type of settlement, sex and type of migration". Statistics Estonia. 2010-05-26. http://pub.stat.ee/px-web.2001/Dialog/varval.asp?ma=POR01&ti=MIGRATION+BY+ADMINISTRATIVE+UNIT%2FTYPE+OF+SETTLEMENT%2C+SEX+AND+TYPE+OF+MIGRATION&path=../I_Databas/Population/03Vital_events/14Migration/&lang=1. Retrieved 2010-08-23. 
4. ^ Enim nõutud statistika (Most wanted statistics), Statistics Estonia (retrieved 2011-06-16)
5. ^ Eesti Statistika aastaraamat. 2009. Statistical yearbook of Estonia. Statistics Estonia. 2009-07-31. ISBN 9789985744529. http://www.stat.ee/file.php?36947. 
6. ^ (in Estonian and English) (PDF) 2000. Aasta rahva ja eluruumide loendus (Population and Housing Census). 2. Statistikaamet (Statistical Office of Estonia). 2001. ISBN 9985-74-202-8. http://www.stat.ee/dokumendid/26495. Retrieved 2009-09-23. 
7. ^ "TOWARDS AN INDEX OF ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION". University of Malaya. 2008-10-17. http://cmsad.um.edu.my/images/fep/doc/2001%20Pdf/FEA-WP-2001-003.pdf. Retrieved 2010-10-11. 
8. ^ ^{a b c} "Population by sex, ethnic nationality and county, 1 January". Statistics Estonia. 2008-10-17. http://pub.stat.ee/px-web.2001/Dialog/varval.asp?ma=PO0222&ti=POPULATION+BY+SEX%2C+ETHNIC+NATIONALITY+AND+COUNTY%2C+1+JANUARY&path=../I_Databas/Population/01Population_indicators_and_composition/04Population_figure_and_composition/&lang=1. Retrieved 2009-10-05. 
9. ^ Encyclopaedia Judaica. 6. 1971. http://www.geschichteinchronologie.ch/eu/estland/EncJud_juden-in-Estland-ENGL.html. 
10. ^ ^{a b} (in Estonian and English) (PDF) Eesti rahvastik rahvaloenduste andmetel (Population of Estonia by population censuses). 2. Eesti Statistikaamet (Statistical Office of Estonia). 1996. ISBN 9985-826-44-2. http://www.stat.ee/dokumendid/26380. Retrieved 2009-10-05. 
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