United States Senate elections, 2010

Elections to the United States Senate will be held on November 2, 2010, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. Since Senators are elected for six-year terms, those elected will serve from January 3, 2011 until January 3, 2017. They will join Senate Class III, which traces its roots back to the Senators who served full six-year terms from March 4, 1789 until March 3, 1795. Current Class III Senators, who were elected in 2004, will seek reelection or retire in 2010. The House elections will occur on the same date, as well as some state and local elections.

The composition of the Senate going into the 2010 election will depend on the results of the 2008 elections. Of the seats up for election, 19 are held by Republicans and 15 by Democrats.

There may be some additional changes of incumbent to the list below if Senators die or resign. If Senators in other classes die or resign in 2009 or 2010, there may be additional special elections in 2010.

Overview of races

Retiring Senators

am Brownback (R) of Kansas

Elected in 1996 to the Senate seat once held by Bob Dole and a former candidate for his party's presidential nomination in 2008, incumbent conservative Republican Sam Brownback has stated he will not run in 2010 because of self-imposed term limits. Kansas is one of the most Republican states in the nation, as no Democrat has been elected to serve the Sunflower State since 1938. Brownback currently has a 50% approval rating. [ [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3a1c3cb4-9fe1-4133-bc82-f2c26e8a9f35] ] Possible successors to Brownback include Republican Congressmen Jerry Moran, Todd Tiahrt, Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh, Insurance Commissioner Sandy Praeger, State Representative Lee Tafanelli, State Senator Derek Schmidt. For the Democrats, popular Governor Kathleen Sebelius, who is restricted from running for reelection because of term limits, would be the strongest candidate, but Railroad Engineer Lee Jones and former Congressman Dan Glickman are also possible candidates.

Possible retiring Senators

Christopher Dodd (D) of Connecticut

First elected in 1980, Christopher Dodd, the longest-serving U.S. Senator in Connecticut history, announced in a letter to the Federal Election Commission on January 17, 2007 that he is no longer a candidate for re-election to the U.S. Senate in 2010. However, this is just a technicality in order to transfer funds to his presidential campaign as the declaration could be reversed at any time. A Dodd spokesman said, "It's a legality that isn't an indication of future plans." [cite news |title=Dodd: About His "Retirement" Announcement |url=http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2007/01/dodd_about_his.html |work=The Hotline |publisher=National Journal |date=2007-02-20 |accessdate=2007-03-07] Dodd's campaign for the presidency was not successful, so it is possible that he will run for the Senate again. According to Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele, Republican Governor Jodi Rell is likely running for re-election in 2010, so it is unlikely that either will run for the Senate.cite news |title=Rell likely to seek re-election, lieutenant governor says |url=http://journalinquirer.com/articles/2008/04/12/news/doc48002edd1f3c3517200520.txt |publisher=Journal Inquirer |date=2008-04-12 |accessdate=2008-04-27]

Dodd's previously unassailable electoral position in Connecticut may have deteriorated for two reasons since his last re-election. His poor performance in his bid for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination appears to have soured local voters. [ [http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1163] ] . That poll, showing Dodd's job approval at 51% was taken before revelations that Dodd received mortgage loans as part of the "Friends of Angelo" program run by subprime mortgage lender Countrywide Financial. The Hartford Courant has reported Dodd has taken a "major credibility hit" from this scandal. A later poll in September 2008 showed Dodd's job approval declining to 43%, with 46% terming his job performance as "fair" or "poor". [ [http://www.courant.com/news/politics/hc-ctpoll0926.artsep26,0,4404922.story] ]

Should Dodd seek re-election in 2010 despite the scandal, possible Republican candidates other than Rell or Fedele would include Congressman Chris Shays; former Congressman Rob Simmons; Associate U.S. Attorney General Kevin J. O'Connor; State Senator John P. McKinney; State Senator Sam Caligiuri, or House Minority Leader Lawrence F. Cafero.

Democratic Incumbent Races

Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln was reelected with 56% of the vote in 2004, a year when President George W. Bush carried the state easily and GOP candidates nationwide won in what was termed as a GOP year. Lincoln is popular in Arkansas and is well known. Former Governor Mike Huckabee, who was a 2008 Presidential candidate, may run, since he remains a relatively well-liked figure. Regardless of Huckabee's position, Arkansas has elected only one Republican Senator since Reconstruction, who was defeated in a GOP landslide year of 2002.

Barbara Boxer of California

The chairwoman of the Environment and Public Works Committee, California Democrat Barbara Boxer announced on February 19, 2007, that she will seek a fourth term in 2010. Boxer will turn 70 one week after election night in 2010. She is one of the most liberal members of the U.S. Senate, and is the first Democratic senator to officially announce plans for the 2010 race. It is unlikely that she will face any major opposition in the Democratic primary. Because of her very liberal positions and outspoken style, she may face an actual challenge from the Republicans.

Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger may seek the seat, as he would be ineligible to run again in the Gubernatorial race due to term limits. David Dreier, the ranking member of the House Rules Committee, could also seek the seat for Republicans, as could Rep. Darrell Issa. However, most members of the California GOP House delegation are regarded as too conservative for the state as a whole.

It remains to be seen whether conservative State Senator Tom McClintock will consider a run for the seat, as he is experienced in statewide contests (including a third-place finish in the 2003 California gubernatorial recall election). Currently, McClintock is running for Congress in a northeastern California district, to which he moved to make his congressional run.

Ken Salazar of Colorado

Ken Salazar narrowly defeated Pete Coors in 2004. Colorado has experienced a shift in politics, with the Democratic Party making significant gains throughout the state in 2006. There has been talk by activists on the left of launching a primary challenge to the centrist Salazar. Republican Former Governor Bill Owens, who won't run in 2008 for the Senate, may run this time around, as might retired football quarterback, Republican John Elway, who hinted at a future run for office despite choosing not to run in 2008. Other possibilities would be former Republican Presidential Candidate and sitting Congressman Tom Tancredo, Secretary of State Mike Coffman and former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton.

Daniel Inouye of Hawaii

Veteran Democrat Daniel Inouye will be 86 in 2010 and will have served eight terms in the Senate and compiled a career in Washington spanning over two generations from Hawaii's first years of statehood to the present day. If Inouye were to retire, the seat would still favor the Democrats, who have traditionally dominated the Hawaii delegation; Hawaii last elected a Republican Senator in 1970, and its delegation currently consists entirely of Democrats. However, although Senator John Kerry (D) won the state in 2004, the margin was smaller than in the past. Hawaiians also have elected popular Republican Governor Linda Lingle in two successive elections.

Republican Governor Linda Lingle and Republican US Senate Hawaii Candidate, 2006 Eddie Pirkowski may run for the seat if Inouye retires. Representatives Mazie Hirono and Neil Abercrombie and former Representative Ed Case would all be potential Democratic candidates.

Barack Obama of Illinois

Senator Barack Obama is the Democratic presidential nominee in 2008. If he becomes president, Governor Rod Blagojevich will appoint Obama's successor in the Senate who will serve the remainder of Obama's term. That appointee could choose to seek election in his or her own right in 2010 or could choose to retire. In either instance, a competitive Democratic primary election could occur. Potential Democratic candidates include state Attorney General Lisa Madigan; U.S. representatives Jesse Jackson Jr. and Bobby Rush; State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias; and Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn. Although Illinois is considered a Democratic stronghold state, Republicans still have some potential candidates, including U.S. representatives Mark Kirk and John Shimkus.

Evan Bayh of Indiana

Evan Bayh, a former two-term Governor of Indiana and now in his second Senate term, was originally considering running for President in 2008, but pulled out in December 2006. He has not yet indicated whether he will seek a third term in 2010, but he is very popular and won reelection with 62% of the vote in 2004.

Should he retire, possible successors on the Democratic side include Congressman Pete Visclosky, former Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson, and Former Congressman and 9/11 Commission member Tim Roemer.

Potential Republican challengers could be Congressmen Mark E. Souder, Stephen Buyer, and Mike Pence. Former Congressman Mike Sodrel could be a candidate, Secretary of State Todd Rokiat and Lt. Governor Becky Skillman. Governor Mitch Daniels, who is expected to win re-election in 2008, has indicated he will not run for Senate or any other office.

Barbara Mikulski of Maryland

The dean of women in the United States Senate, Democrat Barbara Mikulski may retire. Mikulski will be 73 in November 2010. Mikulski has often been elected by large margins, which is no surprise given Maryland's traditional Democratic politics. Former Governor Robert Ehrlich, former Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele, who ran for Senate in 2006, 2004 challenger, and E. J. Pipkin. Anyone of these could be among the GOP's candidates, while Democratic Representatives John Sarbanes, Dutch Ruppersberger and Chris Van Hollen; former congressman and NAACP president Kweisi Mfume; and Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown could be some of the Democratic candidates for the seat.

Harry Reid of Nevada

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will seek a fifth term. In 2004, he was reelected with 61% of the vote. That year, Republicans did not put up a formidable challenger. Potential Republican candidates include former Governor Kenny Guinn, Representatives Jon Porter and Dean Heller, or 2004 candidate Richard Ziser. Guinn might be the strongest challenger to Reid but will be 74 in 2010, three years Reid's senior. Porter is the more likely to run as he has been interested since 2004 and been planning a run.

Reid may be the least popular incumbent in the 2010 cycle. Since becoming Minority Leader (in 2004), his approval ratings have dropped into the under 50 territory. A November 2007 poll showed Reid's approval at 39%, with 49% disapproving. [ [http://www.kren.com/Global/story.asp?S=7396859&nav=menu616_2_4] ]

Chuck Schumer of New York

Chuck Schumer, current chairman of the DSCC, is expected to seek a third term. In 2004, he handily defeated Assemblyman Howard Mills, 71-24%. New York is considered a Democratic stronghold. However, there are a few Republicans who could challenge Schumer, including former governor George Pataki and former New York City mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani. Unless such a prominent opponent were to run, Schumer would be strongly favored for re-election.

Byron Dorgan of North Dakota

Three term Senator Byron Dorgan may retire. He will be 68 years old in 2010. Dorgan, who represents the conservative state of North Dakota, may be vulnerable if he runs for reelection. Potential Republican candidates are Governor John Hoeven, Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem, and his brother, State Senate Majority Leader Bob Stenehjem. All have very high approval ratings, including Dorgan.

Ron Wyden of Oregon

Ron Wyden is expected to win reelection easily in Oregon, a state whose congressional delegation has a 4-1 Democratic majority despite the state splitting its Presidential votes almost 50/50 in 2000 and 2004.

Patrick Leahy of Vermont

Six-term Vermont Senator Patrick Leahy may retire from the Senate; he will be 70 in 2010. However, as Leahy is now the chairman of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee, it is unlikely. Former governor and 2004 presidential candidate and current DNC Chairman Howard Dean may seek the seat should Leahy retire, as might Representative Peter Welch, a Democrat, and Governor Jim Douglas, a Republican.

Patty Murray of Washington

Patty Murray defeated Rep. George Nethercutt by 10 percent in 2004. She may face a credible challenge in 2010 from Nethercutt's successor, Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-5). As the Seattle area has grown, no Washington Senator has come from the eastern part of the state since 1934. Other Republican candidates may include Rep. Dave Reichert (WA-8), who has been able to win in a Democratic-leaning district in the suburbs of Seattle, or Washington Attorney General Rob McKenna.

Russ Feingold of Wisconsin

In 2004, Russ Feingold won a third term by double-digits, outperforming the Democratic nominee for President substantially. Despite this, he won narrowly in both of his previous elections in Democratic years. A potential GOP candidate could be the 2006 Governor candidate, former Rep. Mark Green, the current U.S. Ambassador to Tanzania, Congressmen Paul Ryan and Jim Sensenbrenner.

Republican Incumbent Races

Richard Shelby of Alabama

Richard Shelby, a former Democrat who switched parties in 1994 when Republicans took control of both the House and Senate, may retire. He will be 76 in 2010. Although Alabama is a solidly Republican state in presidential elections, Democrats control majorities in the Alabama Legislature and have some high-profile officeholders that would be strong candidates for Shelby's seat should it come up, as it is unlikely any of them will challenge for the seat if Shelby decides to run for a fifth term. However, Rep. Artur Davis (AL-7) is openly considering running against Shelby. He may opt to run in Alabama's open gubernatorial race instead, as Gov. Bob Riley is term limited.

Lisa Murkowski of Alaska

Lisa Murkowski only narrowly defeated former Governor Tony Knowles in 2004, in an election that included charges of nepotism, as Murkowski was appointed by her father, Governor Frank Murkowski. Alaska trends Republican. Knowles, one of the state's strongest Democrats, has been defeated two statewide elections in a row.

Due to her father's record and the nepotism charge, Murkowski's greatest challenge will probably come from the reform wing of the Republican Party of Alaska. Possible Republican primary challengers include Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell and State Representative Gabrielle Ledoux (who both ran for Alaska's At-large congressional district in the Republican primary against incumbent Republican Don Young, but lost), or current Governor Sarah Palin (who is the vice presidential nominee and John McCain's running mate in the 2008 presidential election). [ [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082300246.html] ]

John McCain of Arizona

On March 5, 2008 McCain won the Republican Nomination to run for the presidency. [ [http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/] ] McCain will be 74 in 2010 and has previously struggled with cancer. It is likely that 2008 will be his last chance to become president. Should he fail to do so, he may choose to retire from politics at the end of his current Senate term. Possible Democratic contenders for McCain's open seat include Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, Attorney General Terry Goddard and 8th District Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords. It is possible that wealthy real estate developer Jim Pederson, who unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Jon Kyl in 2006, may also be interested.

Conservative congressman Jeff Flake is interested in the seat if McCain does not run again. Several other Republican Congressmen including John Shadegg [cite news | title=Shadegg eyes McCain seat |url=http://www.politickeraz.com/alexisenstadt/1794/shadegg-eyes-mccain-seat |publisher=Political Ticker AZ | date=2008-07-31 |accessdate=2008-07-31] are likely to be interested if an open seat presents itself.

{| class="wikitable"
- valign=bottom! Poll Source! Dates Administered! Republican: George Voinovich! Democrat: Jennifer Brunner
-
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Ohio_721.pdf Public Policy Polling]
align=center| July 17-20, 2008
align=center| 38%
align=center| 42%

Tom Coburn of Oklahoma

Tom Coburn was elected in 2004 by a 53% to 42% margin, running well behind President Bush's 66% showing. He could face a serious challenge in 2010. The Democrats have several strong potential candidates to challenge in Oklahoma, including Governor Brad Henry, Congressman Dan Boren, and state Attorney General Drew Edmondson.

Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania

Longtime moderate Republican Arlen Specter will be 80 in 2010. He announced on March 19, 2007 that he will seek a sixth term in 2010. In spite of that, there is still some speculation that he will change his mind. The five-term Pennsylvanian, following the 2006 elections, lost his chairmanship of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee. In 2005, Specter underwent chemotherapy for Hodgkin's lymphoma, one year after a hotly contested race pitting him against Representatives Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Hoeffel (D) in the primary and general elections, respectively.

There is a slight possibility that Specter will face a primary challenge as he did in 2004 from Rep. Pat Toomey, but no Republicans have made their intention known. He defeated his Democratic opponent, Joe Hoeffel, 53%-42% in the general election in 2004. Representative Allyson Schwartz might run; she has been noted for raising vasts amount of money in short time periods. Congressmen Patrick Murphy, Joe Sestak, Tim Holden, Jason Altmire, Bob Brady, Chaka Fattah, Chris Carney, Democratic MSNBC commentator and Hardball host Chris Matthews, and Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter would all be Democratic possibilities for Specter's seat.

Governor Ed Rendell ruled out a run when he announced that his reelection campaign in 2006 would be the last one of his career, however party sources have indicated that he may run.

Jim DeMint of South Carolina

Jim DeMint was elected in 2004 with 54 percent of the vote, defeating Democrat Inez Tenenbaum. In 2010 he is unlikely to face a serious challenge, as there are only one or two Democrats left in South Carolina who could give him a race. These are State Education Superintendent Jim Rex, the only Democrat who currently holds statewide elected office in the Palmetto State, and Joe Erwin, the wealthy former state Democratic Party chairman.

John Thune of South Dakota

John Thune narrowly defeated Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004, and he could face a strong challenge in 2010. Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is a possible Democratic contender, though she is also mentioned as a potential candidate for Governor.

Thune has been mentioned as a candidate for Governor of South Dakota in 2010. Should he run for governor, he will be unable to seek reelection, and will retire from the Senate when his term ends in 2011. If Thune does retire, Republican Governor Mike Rounds could be a contender for the seat.

Bob Bennett of Utah

Former entrepreneur-turned-Republican-Senator Bob Bennett may retire. He will have served three terms in the Senate and will be 77 in 2010. Utah has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1970, when Frank Moss won his third term; he was unseated in 1976 by Republican Orrin Hatch, who continues to hold the state's other Senate seat.

There are still a handful Democrats who could be strong contenders, including U.S. Representative Jim Matheson, whose popularity in the very Republican 2nd district and experience with difficult campaigns would make him a strong Democratic candidate for the state. Another Democratic possibility would be former Utah Attorney General Jan Graham. Matheson's congressional colleagues, Rob Bishop and Chris Cannon, would be strong contenders for the Republican nomination should Bennett step down. It should be noted that Chris Cannon was defeated in his primary, and will not be returning to Congress in 2009. [ [http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002904749] ] Republican Governor Jon Huntsman could be a contender, but he is up for re-election in 2008, and his term would go through 2012, which means he would have to resign as Governor of Utah.

enate contests in 2010

References