Earthquake cloud

Earthquake clouds are clouds claimed to be signs of imminent earthquakes. The analyses of earthquake clouds as a form of earthquake prediction are generally not accepted by seismologists and other scientists.

In chapter 32 of his work Brihat Samhita, Indian scholar Varahamihira (505 – 587) discussed a number of signs warning of earthquakes: Unusual animal behavior, astrological influences, underground movements of water, and extraordinary clouds occurring a week before the earthquake.

Since 1994, Zhonghao Shou, a retired Chinese chemist living in Pasadena, New York and Seattle by elapsing, has made thousands earthquake predictions based on cloud patterns in satellite images with an accuracy more than 70%. Fifty of them, are verified by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). “Peer on” this set i.e. assuming earthquake data of the USGS without error and an earthquake at a point without radius, 34 predictions or 68% are correct in time, area and magnitude. Analyzing the 16 mistakes shows each cause from a satellite data problem, an earthquake data problem, or an experience problem of Shout as a pioneer. Even if blaming all the 16 mistakes from the clouds, this set is still on statistic significance, demonstrated by Monte Carlo Simulation with a 1 in 5,000 chance and by Brelsford- Jones Score Method with a 1 in 16,000 chance for a random guesser to successfully simulate this set.

On Dec. 25, 2003, one day before the Bam earthquake, he predicted an earthquake of mag. 5.5+ within 60 days over a fault line in Iran. The Bam cloud laconically revealed Shou’s theory by appearing suddenly, and sticking at the fault for 24 hours continuously. Neither meteorology, nor seismology can explain this cloud, while an M6.8 earthquake proclaimed his success by occurring at Bam exactly and being the only one in the predicted area in history. Due to this correct prediction, he was invited to a workshop by the UN and the Iranian Space Agency, with meteorologists, geologists, seismologists etc present in May 2004. Many scientists, including Ansari Amoli, believe that is an area worthy of serious study. The UN published his presentation into its yearbook "SEMINARS of the United Nations Programme on Space Applications" 16, 39-63 (2005), and shared the book to its all members during the 42nd Session of the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee in Vienna from Feb. 21, 2005 to Mar. 4.

Shou published his Earthquake Vapor Theory in 1999, and developed it in 2005 and 2006. Here is its laconic model. When external forces stress a huge rock, its weak parts break first and small quakes occur. The fact that a large earthquake produces a big gap suggests small shocks generating crevices that reduce the cohesion of the rock. Next, underground water percolates into the crevices. Its expansion, contraction, friction and chemistry further reduce the cohesion. Friction heats the water and eventually generates vapor at high temperature and high pressure. The vapor erupts from an impending hypocenter to the surface through the crevices, and rises up. It forms an “Earthquake Cloud” on encountering cold air, or dissipates part of a cloud to form a cloudless space, denoted Geothermal Eruption or “Geoeruption”. The both have two basic properties: sudden appearance with heat and pressure, and a fixed vapor source in the ground, by which they can be distinguished from weather phenomena. Afterward, the yield strength of the rock drops sharply. Once it drops sufficiently, the rock yields or an earthquake occurs.

An earthquake can be predicted by three reasons. First, the tail of a vapor precursor points toward an impending epicenter, so the epicenter can be predicted. Second, the bigger the mass of the vapor, the larger the magnitude, so the magnitude can be predicted by comparing the mass with formers, whose magnitudes are in an earthquake catalog. Third, a statistic among over 500 events shows 112 days as the longest duration from vapor eruptions to relevant subsequences and 30 days as the average, so the time can be predicted.

In Apr. 2006, Shou was invited to introduce his work to the scientists in Beijing. His PowerPoint was widely admired and copied. He suggested governments solving the satellite data problems and the earthquake data problems with their 0.1% budgets on earthquake prediction, so all large earthquakes would be able to be predicted in a circle of 20km and a magnitude error in +/- 0.2. Then, a successful evacuation would become true after more work to narrow time window into a week according to his idea. He also published this appeal, but no response is from a government, a company or a rich person.

On the other hand, billion dollars a year budgets on prediction have not produced a reliable prediction, yet, and devastating earthquakes kill many people as they did before. To reply Chinese people, Shou posted an essay “A serious social problem helps devastating earthquakes”. He is eager for an organized debate between authority and him.

However, a large majority of seismologists do not believe that there is a direct correlation between the earthquakes and cloud forms ["The Cloudspotter's Guide", Gavin Pretor-Pinney, 2006, ISBN 0-340-89589-6] .

Historical records have indicated a possible correlation between clouds and earthquakes in the ancient civilizations of Rome, India, and China.

Possible earthquake clouds were spotted before the 2008 Sichuan earthquake. [cite web|url=http://shenyun.epochtimes.com/b5/8/5/14/n2116538.htm|title=Bizarre phenomenon photographed 1 hour before the quake|publisher=The Epoch Times|date=2008-05-14|accessdate=2008-05-20|language=Chinese] [cite web|url=http://www.tianshui.com.cn/news/wy/2008051220101499791.htm|title="Buddha's Halo" appears at Nanguo Temple|publisher=Tianshui Online|date=2008-05-12|accessdate=2008-05-20|language=Chinese] However, these may have been circumhorizontal arcs.

ee also

*Earthquake light
*Earthquake prediction

Resources

* "A temblor from ancient Indian treasure trove?". (April 28, 2001). "The Times of India"

External links

* [http://www.china-quake.com/China%20Sichuan%20earthquake%20cloud.php China Sichuan earthquake clouds] China Sichuan earthquake report, with unsourced pictures of clouds taken after the quake.
* [http://www.earthquakesignals.com Earthquake Clouds and Short Term Prediction] The website used by Zhonghao Shou to publish his earthquake predictions
* [http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19826514.600-curious-cloud-formations-linked-to-quakes.html?feedId=online-news_rss20 Curious cloud formations linked to quakes] - Distinctive cloud formations were spotted above an active fault in Iran before each of two large earthquakes occurred ("New Scientist", 11 April 2008)