Jagdish Shukla

Jagdish Shukla(born 1944) is an Indian meteorologist and Distinguished University Professor at George Mason University in the United States.

Early years

Dr. Shukla was born in 1944 in a small village (Mirdha) in the Ballia district of Uttar Pradesh, India. This village had no electricity, no roads or transportation, and primary school building. Most of his primary school education was received under a large banyan tree. He passed from the S.R.S. High School, Sheopur, in the first class with distinction in Mathematics and Sanskrit. He was unable to study science in high school because none of the schools near his village included science education. His father, the late Shri Chandra Shekhar Shukla, asked him to read all the science books for classes 6 through 10 during the summer before he was admitted to the S.C. College, Ballia, to study science. After passing the twelfth grade from S.C. College, he went to Banaras Hindu University (B.H.U.) where, at the age of 18, he passed BS (honors) with Physics, Mathematics, and Geology in the first class and then earned the MS in Geophysics in the first class in 1964. He received PhD in Geophysics from BHU in 1971 and ScD in Meteorology from MIT in 1976. s

Professional activities

Dr. Shukla has made significant contributions to the understanding of the predictability of weather and climate including the Asian monsoon dynamics, deforestation and desertification. His research has established that there is predictability in the midst of chaos and that there is a scientific basis for short-term climate prediction.

Dr. Shukla has been instrumental in creating weather and climate research centers in India. When India received the first supercomputer from the USA under special agreement for monsoon forecasting, he was invited by India to be the scientific leader in establishing the National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) in New Delhi. He helped recruit and train the scientific staff, and implemented a global model to make weather forecasts for India. He has close collaboration with the Indian researchers in the India Meteorological Department, New Delhi; IIT, New Delhi; IISc., Bangalore; Allahabad Univ.; IITM, Poona; and Goa University. Dr. Shukla has also established research institutions in Brazil, Italy, and the USA.

Dr. Shukla is the author or co-author of over 150 scientific papers and has served as chairman or member of numerous national and international panels and committees. For the past 34 years, he has visited his village every year. He has established Gandhi College in his village for education of rural students especially women. [cite book |title=India: A Global Studies Handbook |last=Blackwell |first=Fritz |year=2004 |publisher=ABC-CLIO |isbn=1576073483 |pages=p. 66 |url=http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=_6feDdn0QS0C&pg=PA66&dq=%22Jagdish+Shukla%22&num=100&sig=APq49Na5gjHED1l4XSsAAyDLf0A |accessdate=2008-05-26]

International Meteorological Organization prize

Dr. Jagadish Shukla, Professor and Chair of the Climate Dynamics Program at George Mason University and President of the Institute of Global Environment and Society was awarded the 52nd International Meteorological Organization (IMO) Prize by the Executive Council of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 2008. [cite news |title=Indian wins UN’s top met prize |url=http://www.tribuneindia.com/2008/20080405/world.htm#3 |work=The Tribune |date=2008-04-05 |accessdate=2008-05-26 ]

The IMO prize is awarded annually for outstanding work in meteorology and is considered the highest international award in the field. Previous winners have included well-known scientists from around the globe, notably Lennart Bengtsson (2006), Shukla’s long-time collaborator, as well as Jule Charney (1971) and Edward Lorenz (2000), Shukla's advisers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where he earned his ScD in 1976. The prize winner is selected from among those nominated by the permanent representatives of WMO members. The prize includes a gold medal and a monetary award.

Shukla received his Ph.D. from Benaras Hindu University, India and his Sc.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA. He has received the Walker Gold Medal of the Indian Meteorological Society, the Carl Gustav Rossby Research Medal from the American Meteorological Society, [cite news |title=TWO-DAY INTERNATIONAL BRAIN STORMING MEETING ON WEATHER MODELLING OPENS ON TUESDAY |url=http://pib.nic.in/release/rel_print_page.asp?relid=6791 |work=Ministry of Human Resource Development |date=2005-01-28 |accessdate=2008-05-26 ] and the Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. He is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society, a Fellow of the Indian Meteorological Society and an Associate Fellow of the Third World Academy of Sciences. He is currently a member of the Joint Scientific Committee of the World Climate Research Program of the World Meteorological Organization and a Commissioner in the Virginia Governor’s Commission on Climate Change.

Dr Shukla has been associated with the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) since its inception 26 years ago. At that time, Dr. Shukla was involved in research on coupled ocean-atmosphere models that could already skillfully predict one of the most important boundary forcings, namely the sea surface temperature. One of the most successful international research programs under the WCRP in which Shukla was closely involved was the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project, the first coupled atmosphere-ocean initiative. TOGA began in 1984 and led to major breakthroughs in operational seasonal forecasting because it laid the physical basis for understanding and predicting world-wide anomalies in the global atmospheric circulation and the temperature and precipitation patterns linked to El Niño.

As TOGA came to its end in 1994, Dr Shukla supported the proposal to extend TOGA research from the tropical oceans to the global oceans, and to include land-surface processes became the Global Ocean Atmosphere Land System (GOALS) program. WCRP’s core project on Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) followed a year later in 1995.

Since 2001, Dr Shukla has been a member of the WCRP Joint Scientific Committee (JSC), and Chair of the WCRP Modeling Panel, which promotes, coordinates and integrates modeling activities. Scientific contributions include research on monsoon dynamics, deforestation, desertification, tropical predictability and climate variability.

Shukla founded and directed the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), [cite news |title=A Pacific monster is threatening to gobble Indian monsoon |url=http://www.indianexpress.com/res/web/pIe/ie/daily/19970627/17850143.html |work=The Indian Express |date=1997-06-27 |accessdate=2008-05-26 ] a premier scientific research center devoted to developing an improved understanding of climate variability and predictability on intraseasonal to decadal time scales within a changing climate. The COLA scientists make major contributions to the independent evaluation of the Nation’s leading models for climate change, provide leadership within the research community working toward improved prediction of climate, and highly valued and widely used information technology infrastructure for the efficient exchange of climate model and observational data. COLA scientists were the first to suggest the use of numerical weather prediction models to reanalyze past observations of the atmosphere and oceans to produce climate research data sets. They have advocated the importance of land-atmosphere interactions in climate variability as well as the existence of predictability for monthly and seasonal time scales. The group has made significant contributions to the understanding of the predictability of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation and has contributed to the advancement of the practice of seasonal prediction.

Shukla is a Distinguished University Professor [cite news |title=“Global Warming: The Known, The Unknown, and The Unknowable” |url=http://www.icrier.org/lectures/2006/6_oct_06.html |work=Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations |date=2006-10-06 |accessdate=2008-05-26 ] in the College of Science (COS) and chair of the Climate Dynamics department. The COS is the primary academic unit of George Mason University (GMU) that plays the central role in undergraduate and graduate education and research in the physical, biological, mathematical, and computational sciences.

Shukla was instrumental in the creation of the weather and climate research group at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Trieste, Italy and led the group’s activities from their inception until 1997. He was the scientific leader who helped establish the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting in New Delhi, India and he helped in the establishment of several research institutions in the USA and abroad. He helped establish the Gandhi College in his birth village of Mirdha, India, for the education of rural students in the Ballia district of Uttar Pradesh.

The IMO Prize was awarded at the annual meeting of the WMO held in Geneva in May 2007, and bestowed on Shukla in a ceremony at the U.S. National Academy of Sciences on 28 March 2008.

Publications

2006

DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2006: Specification of Wintertime North American Surface Temperature. J. Climate (in press).

Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 2006a: On the mechanisms of the interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean, Part I: The role of remote forcing from tropical Pacific. J. Climate (in press).

Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 2006b: On the mechanisms of the interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean, Part II: Regional processes. J. Climate (submitted).

Shukla, J., T. DelSole, M. Fennessy, J. Kinter, and D. Paolino, 2006: Climate Model Fidelity and Projections of Climate Change. GRL (submitted).

Shukla, J. and J. L. Kinter III, 2006: Predictability of seasonal climate variations: A pedagogical review. In Predictability of Weather and Climate, T. Palmer and R. Hagedorn, eds. (in press).

2005

Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 2005: The ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean. J. Climate, 18, 1652-1672.

Kang, I.-S. and J. Shukla, 2005: Dynamical seasonal prediction and predictability of monsoon. In The Asian Monsoon (B. Wang, ed.), Praxis Pub. Ltd., Chichester, UK.

Wang, B., Q. Ding, X. Fu, I.-S. Kang, K. Jin, J. Shukla and F. Doblas-Reyes, 2005: Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15711, doi: 10.1029/2005GL022734.

2003

Straus D., D. Paolino, J. Shukla, S. Schubert, M. Suarez, P. Pegion, and A. Kumar, 2003: Predictability of the Seasonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation During Autumn, Winter and Spring. J. climate, 16, No. 22, 3629-3649.

2002

Del Sole, T., and J. Shukla, 2002: Linear prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall. J. Climate, 15, 3645-3658.

Kang, I.-S., K. Jin, K.-M. Lau, J. Shukla, V. Krishnamurthy, and coauthors, 2002a: Intercomparison of atmospheric GCM simulated anomalies associated with the 1997-98 El Niño event. J. Climate, 15, 2791-2805.

Kang, I.-S., K. Jin, B. Wang, K.-M. Lau, J. Shukla, V. Krishnamurthy, and coauthors, 2002b: Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsson precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs. Climate Dyn., 19, 383-395.

Kirtman, B. P., and J. Shukla, 2002: Interactive coupled ensemble: A new coupling strategy for CGCMs. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1367, doi:10.1029/2002GLO14834.

Straus, D. M., and J. Shukla, 2002: Does ENSO force the PNA? J. Climate, 15, 2340 - 2358.

2001

Blackmon, M., …, J. Shukla, …, E. K. Schneider, and coauthors, 2001: The Community Climate System Model. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 2357-2376.

Kirtman, B. P., J. Shukla, M. Balmaseda, N. Graham, C. Penland, Y. Xue, S. Zebiak, 2001c: Current status of ENSO forecast skill. World Climate Research Program (WRCP) Report, 23/01, 26 pp.

Krishnamurthy, V., and J. Shukla, 2001: Observed and model simulated interannual variability of the Indian monsoon. Mausam, 52, 133-150.

Shukla, J. (ed.), 2001: Dynamics of Large-Scale Atmospheric and Oceanic Processes: Selected Papers of Jule Gregory Charney. A. Deepak Publ. (Hampton, VA, 611 pp).

2000

ennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 2000:Seasonal

Kirtman, B. P., and J. Shukla, 2000: Influence of the Indian Summer Monsoon on ENSO. Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc., 126, 213-239.

Krishnamurthy, V. and J. Shukla, 2000: Intraseasonal and interannual variability of rainfall over India. J. Climate, 13, 4366-4377. Reale, O. and J. Shukla, 2000: Modeling the effects of vegetation on Mediterranean climate during the Roman classical period. Part II: Model simulation. Global and Planetary Change,25, 185-214.

Shukla, J., D. A. Paolino, D. M. Straus, D. DeWitt, M. Fennessy, J. L. Kinter, L. Marx and R. Mo, 2000: Dynamical Seasonal Predictions with the COLA Atmospheric Model. Quart. J. Royal. Meteor. Soc.,126, 2265-2291.

Shukla, J., J. Anderson, D. Baumhefner, C. Brankovic, Y. Chang, E. Kalnay, L. Marx, T. Palmer, D. A. Paolino, J. Ploshay, S. Schubert, D. M. Straus, M. Suarez, J. Tribbia, 2000: Dynamical Seasonal Prediction, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 2593-2606.

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 2000: Distinguishing between the SST-forced variability and internal variability in mid-latitudes: Analysis of observations and GCM simulations. Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc,126, 2323-2350.

1999

Bamzai, A. S., and J. Shukla, 1999: Relation between Eurasian Snow Cover, Snow Depth, and the Indian Summer Monsoon: An Observational Study. J. Climate, 12, 3117-3132.

Fennessy, M. J., and J. Shukla, 1999: Impact of Initial Soil Wetness on Seasonal Atmospheric Prediction. J. Climate, 12, 3167-3180.

Schneider, E. K., B. Huang, D. G. DeWitt, J. L. Kinter, B. P. Kirtman, and J. Shukla, 1999: Ocean Data Assimilation Initialization and Prediction of ENSO with a Coupled GCM. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1187-1207.

Shukla, J., J. L. Kinter, E. K. Schneider, D. M. Straus, 1999: Chapter 3: Modelling of the Climate System. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Editors: P. Mertens and J. Rotmans, 51-104. 1998

Shukla, J., 1998: Predictability in the Midst of Chaos: A Scientific Basis for Climate Forecasting. Science, 282, 728-731.

Webster, P.J., V.O. Magana, T.N. Palmer, J. Shukla, R.A. Tomas, M. Yanai, and T. Yasunari, 1998: The monsoon: Processes, predictability, and prediction. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14451-14510.

Xue, Y. and J. Shukla, 1998: Model Simulation of the Influence of Global SST Anomalies on the Sahel Rainfall. J. Climate, 126, 2782-2792.

1997

Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 1997a: An examinationof AGCM simulated surface wind stress and low level winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 985-998.

Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 1997b: Characteristics of interannual and decadal variability in a general circulation model of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1693-1712.

Kirtman, B.P., J. Shukla, B. Huang, Z. Zhu and E.K. Schneider, 1997: Multiseasonal predictions with a coupled tropical ocean global atmosphere system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 789-808.

Schneider, E.K., Z. Zhu, B. Huang, B. Giese, B.P. Kirtman, J. Shukla, and J. Carton, 1997: ENSO variability in a coupled general circulation model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 680-702.

Straus, D.M., and J. Shukla, 1997: Variations of mid-latitude transient dynamics associated with ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 777-790.

1996

Dirmeyer, P.A., and J. Shukla, 1996: The effect on regional and global climate of expansion of the World’s deserts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 530, 451-482.

Huang, B. and J. Shukla, 1996: A comparison of two surface wind analyses over the tropical Atlantic during 1980-87. J. Climate, 9, 906-927.

Nobre. P. and J. Shukla, 1996: Variations of sea surface temperature, wind stress and rainfall over the tropical Atlantic and South America. J. Climate, 9, 2464-2479.

Xue, Y. and J. Shukla, 1996: The influence of land surface properties on Sahel climate. PART II: Afforestation. J. Climate, 9, 3260-3275.

1995

Huang, B., J.A. Carton and J. Shukla, 1995: A numerical simulation of the variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, 1980-88. J. Phys. Oceanog., 25, 835-854.

Paolino, D. A., Q. Yang, B. Doty, J. Kinter, J. Shukla, D. Straus, 1995: Results of a pilot reanalysis project at COLA. Bulletin of the American Meterological Society, 76, 697-710.

Schneider, E.K., B. Huang, and J. Shukla, 1995: Ocean Wave Dynamics of El Niño. J. Climate, 8, 2415-2439.

Shukla, J. 1995: On the initiation and persistence of the Sahel drought. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 44-48.

1994

Dirmeyer, P. A. and J. Shukla, 1994: Albedo as a modulator of climate response to tropical deforestation. J. Geophys. Res., 99, 923-935.

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1994: GCM Simulations of active and break monsoon periods. Proc. MONEG International Conference on Moonsoon Variability and Prediction, Trieste, Italy, 9-13 May, 1994, pp. 576-585.

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1994: Simulation and predictability of monsoons. Proc. MONEG International Conference on Moonsoon Variability and Prediction, Trieste, Italy, 9-13 May, 1994, pp 567-575.

Fennessy, M. J., J. L. Kinter III, B. Kirtman, L. Marx., S. Nigam, E. Schneider, J. Shukla., D. Straus. A. Vernekar, Y. Xue, and J. Zhou, 1994: The simulated Asian monsoon: A GCM sensitivity study. J. Climate, 7, 33-43.

Vernekar, A., J. Zhou and J. Shukla, 1994: The effect of Eurasian snow cover on Indian monsoon. J. of Climate, 8, 248-266.

Yang, R., M. J. Fennessy and J. Shukla, 1994: The influence of initial soil wetness on medium range surface weather forecasts, Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 471-485.

Yang, R., J. Shukla and P. J. Sellers, 1994: The influence of changes in vegetation type on the surface energy budget. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 11, 139-161.

1993

Dirmeyer, P. A. and J. Shukla, 1993: Observational and Modeling Studies of the Influence of Soil Moisture Anomalies on Atmospheric Circulation (Review). Prediction of Interannual Climate Variations. NATO ASI Series I: Global Environmental Change, Vol. 6, Editor: J. Shukla, 1-24.

Fennessy, M.J., J.L. Kinter III, L. Marx, P. Sellers and J. Shukla, 1993: Influence of initial soil wetness on GCM simulation of th 1988 U.S. drought and heat wave. Conference on Hydroclimatology (Anaheim, CA, 17-22 January 1993).

Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1993: Aperiodic variability in the Cane-Zebick model: A diagnostic study. J. Climate, 5, 628-638.

Robinson, A.R., C.J. Garrett, P. Malanotte-Rizzoli, S. Manage, S.G. Philander, N. Pinardi, W. Roether, F.A. Schott and J. Shukla, 1993: Mediterranean and Global Ocean and Climate Dynamics. EOS Transactions, American Geophysical Union, Vol. 74, No. 44, 506-507. Shukla, J. 1993: Predictability of short-term climate variations. Prediction of Interannual Climate Variations. NATO ASI Series I: Global Environmental Change, Vol. 6, Editor: J. Shukla, 217-232.

Vernekar, A., J. Zhou and J. Shukla, 1993: The effect of Eurasian spring snow cover on Indian summer monsoon. WCRP-80, WMO/TD-No. 546, 69-73.

Xue, Y. and J. Shukla, 1993: The influence of land surface properties on Sahel climate. PART I: Desertification. J. Climate, 6, 2232-2245.

1992

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1992: Influence of Global SST on GCM simulations of the Northern Hemisphere Monsoon Circulations of 1987 and 1988. Report of the Monsoon Numerical Experimentation Group Workshop on Interannual and Intraseasonal Variability of Monsoons (October 21‑24, 1991), WMO, WCRP‑68, WMO/TD‑No. 470, 2.37‑2.46.

Fennessy, M. J., L. Marx, J. L. Kinter III and J. Shukla, 1992: The influence of global SST on the 1988 U.S. Drought: A comparison with two general circulation models. Proc. Workshop on 1988 U.S. Drought, Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742.

Shukla, J. and M. J. Fennessy, 1992: Idealized numerical experiments to diagnose the simulated Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall. Report of the Monsoon Numerical Experimentation Group Workshop on Interannual and Intraseasonal Variability of Monsoons (October 21‑24, 1991), WMO, WCRP‑68, WMO/TD‑No. 470, 2.153‑2.157.

1991

Carton, J. A. and J. Shukla, 1991: Predictability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. J. of Marine Systems, 1, 299‑313.

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1991: Comparison of the impact of the 1982‑83 and 1986‑88 Pacific SST anomalies on time mean prediction of atmospheric circulation and rainfall. J. Clim., 4, 407‑423.

Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1991: Predictability and variability of a coupled ocean‑atmosphere model. J. of Marine Systems, 1, 217‑228.

Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1991: Predictability of a coupled ocean‑atmosphere model. J. Climate, 3, 2‑22.

Kinter III, J. L., J. Shukla, L. Marx and B. Doty, 1991: Relationship between GCM forecast errors and seasonal variability: Tropical heating and extratropical circulation. IUGG XX General Assembly, IAMAP Symposium on Large-Scale Atmospheric Flow and Variability (Vienna, Austria, 19-23 August, 1991). IAMAP, 1991. Nobre, C. A., P. J. Sellers and J. Shukla, 1991: Amazonian deforestation and regional climate change. J. Climate, 4, 957‑988.

Shukla, J., M. J. Fennessy, J. L. Kinter III, L. Marx and E. K, Schneider, 1991: Seasonal predictions with the COLA GCM. Proc. ICTP/WMO Technical Conference on Long-Range Weather Forecasting Research, 249.

Xue, Y., P. J. Sellers, J. Kinter and J. Shukla, 1991: A simplified model for global climate studies. J. Climate, 4, 345‑364. 1990

Kinter, J. L. and J. Shukla, 1990: The global hydrologic and energy cycles: Suggestions for studies in the pre-GEWEX period. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 71, 181-189.

Shukla, J., C. A. Nobre and P. J. Sellers, 1990: Amazonia deforestation and climate change. Science, 247, 1322‑1325. 1989

Kinter, J. L. and J. Shukla, 1989: Meeting Review: Reanalysis for TOGA (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 70, 1422‑1427.

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1989: Index of activity of the monsoon trough over India. MAUSAM, 40, 247‑258.

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1989: Main features of the westward‑moving summer monsoon low pressure systems which form over the Indian regions during the summer monsoon season and their relation to the monsoon rainfall. MAUSAM, 40, 137‑152.

Sato, N., P. J. Sellers, D. A. Randall, E. K. Schneider, J. Shukla, J. L. Kinter III, Y.‑T. Hou and E. Albertazzi, 1989: Effects of implementing the simple biosphere model (SiB) in a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 2757‑2782.

Sato, N., P. J. Sellers, D. A. Randall, E. K. Schneider, J. Shukla, J. L. Kinter III, Y.‑T. Hou and E. Albertazzi, 1989: Effects of implementing the simple biosphere model (SiB) in a general circulation model: Methodologies and results. NASA Contractor Report 185509, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, 76 pp.

Shukla, J., 1989: Tropical forecasting: Predictability perspective. Austral. Meteor. Mag., 37, 141‑153.

1988

Bengtsson, L. and J. Shukla, 1988: Integration of space and in situ observation to study climate change. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 69, 1130-1143.

Charney, J. G., E. Kalnay, E. K. Schneider and J. Shukla, 1988: A study of the dynamics of the ITCZ in a symmetric atmosphere-ocean model. (Joint IUTAM/IUGG Symposium on Monsoon Dynamics (5-9 December 1977), New Delhi, India, NASA Tech. Memo. 86220, 20pp.

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1988: Impact of the 1982‑3 and 1986‑7 Pacific SST anomalies on time mean prediction with the GLAS GCM. Proceedings of a Workshop on Modelling the Sensitivity and Variations of the Ocean‑Atmosphere System (11‑13 May, 1988), ECMWF, England, World Climate Research Program Report: WCRP‑15. (WMO/TD ‑ No. 254), Geneva, pp. 26‑44.

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1988: Numerical simulation of the atmospheric response to the time‑varying El Niño SST anomalies during May 1982 through October 1983. J. Climate, 1, 195‑211.

Kinter, J. L., J. Shukla, L. Marx, E. Schneider, 1988: A simulation of the winter and summer circulation with the NMC global spectral model. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2486‑2522.

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1988: Characteristics of the westward‑moving summer monsoon low pressure systems over the Indian region and their relationship with the monsoon rainfall. Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.

Shukla, J., 1988: Predictability of monthly mean circulation and rainfall: Part I: Classical dynamical predictability experiments; and Part II: Influences of 1982‑83 and 1986‑87 El Niño SST anomalies. Proceedings of the Workshop on Predictability in the Medium and Extended Range (16‑18 May 1988), ECMWF, England, 251‑261.

Shukla, J., 1988: Variability of rainfall over tropical oceans: Scientific basis and justification for TRMM. Tropical Rainfall Measurements. Editors: J. S. Theon and N. Fugono, A. Deepak Publishing, pp. 75‑79.

Shukla, J. and M. Fennessy, 1988: Prediction of time mean atmospheric circulation and rainfall: Influence of Pacific SST anomaly. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 9‑28.

Shukla, J., D. A. Mooley and D. A. Paolino, 1988: Long range forecasting of summer monsoon rainfall over India. Persistent meteo‑oceanographic anomalies and teleconnections, Pontificale academiae scientiarum scripta varia, 69. Editors: C. Chagas and G. Puppi, Pontificia Academia Scientiarum, pp. 147‑178.

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1988: A comparison of a GCM simulation of the seasonal cycle of the atmosphere to observations. Part I: Mean fields and the annual harmonic. Atmosphere‑Ocean, 26, 541‑574.

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1988: A comparison of a GCM simulation of the seasonal cycle of the atmosphere to observations. Part II: Stationary waves and transient fluctuations. Atmosphere‑Ocean, 26, 575‑607.

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1988: The seasonal cycle of energetics from the GLAS/UMD Climate GCM. NASA Tech. Memo. 100714.

Sud, Y. C., J. Shukla, and Y. Mintz, 1988: Influence of land‑surface roughness on atmospheric circulation and rainfall: A sensitivity study with GCM. J. Clim. App. Meteor., 27, 1036‑1054.

1987

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1987: Evaluation of April 500 mb ridge and Darwin pressure trend as predictors for Indian monsoon rainfall. Proceedings of the Fifth Conference on Applied Meteorology (10‑12 March 1987), Baltimore, MD, published by AMS, 46‑48.

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1987: Variability and forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Monsoon Meteorology. Editors: C. P. Chang and T. N. Krishnamurti. Oxford University Press, pp. 26‑59.

Shukla, J, 1987: General circulation modeling and the tropics. Geophysiology of Amazonia:Vegetation and Climate Interactions. Editor: R. E. Dickinson, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., pp. 409‑461.

Shukla, J., 1987: Interannual variability of monsoons. Monsoons. Editors: Jay S.Fein and Pamela L. Stephens, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., pp. 399‑464.

Shukla, J., 1987: Long range forecasting of Indian monsoons. Science Age, November, 21‑23.

Shukla, J, 1987: Long range forecasting of monsoons. Monsoons. Editors: Jay S. Fein and Pamela L. Stephens, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., pp. 523‑547.

Shukla, J, 1987: Numerical simulation of atmospheric response to observed SST anomalies and oceanic response to observed wind stress: Intercomparison of results from various GCMs. Proceedings of the Workshop on Predictability in the Medium and Extended Range (17‑19 March 1986), ECMWF, England, pp. 205‑220.

Shukla, J. and D. A. Mooley, 1987: Empirical prediction of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 695‑703.

1986

Shukla, J., 1986: SST anomalies and blocking. Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 29. Editor: R. Benzi, Academic Press, Inc., pp. 443‑452.

1985

Fennessy, M. J., L. Marx and J. Shukla, 1985: General circulation model sensitivity to 1982‑83 equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 858‑864.

Shukla, J., 1985: Air-Sea-Land Interactions: Global and Regional Habitability. Origins of Life, 15, Rydell Publishing Co., Holland, 353-363.

Shukla, J., 1985: Predictability. Issues in atmospheric and oceanic modeling, Part II. Weather Dynamics. Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 28B. Editor: S. Manabe, Academic Press, Inc., pp. 87‑122.

Shukla, J. and E. M. Rasmusson, 1985: Variability of the tropical circulation. Proceedings of the TOGA Conference (Paris, September 1984), WCRP Publication Series No. 4 (WMO/TD ‑ No. 65), 1985, pp. II.24‑II.39. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva.

1984

Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1984: Quasi‑periodic oscillations in a symmetric general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 20‑37.

Goswami, B. N., J. Shukla, E. K. Schneider and Y. C. Sud, 1984: Study of the dynamics on the intertropical convergence zone with a symmetric version of the GLAS climate model. J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 5‑19.

Gutzler, D. S. and J. Shukla, 1984: Analogs in the wintertime 500 mb height field. J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 177‑189.

Shukla, J., 1984: Predictability of a large atmospheric model. Predictability and Turbulence, American Institute of Physics. Editors: G. Holloway and B. J. West, pp. 449‑456.

Shukla, J., 1984: Predictability of time averages, Part II. The influence of the boundary forcing. Problems and Prospects in Long and Medium Range Weather Forecasting. Editors: D. N. Burridge and E. Kallen, Springer‑Verlag, pp. 155‑206.

1983

Chen, T. C. and J. Shukla, 1983: Diagnostics analysis and spectral energetics of a blocking event in GLAS climate model simulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 3‑23.

Estoque, M. A., J. C. Jiing and J. Shukla, 1983: African wave disturbances in a General Circulation Model. Tellus, 35A, 287‑295.

Mo, K. C. and J. Shukla, 1983: Persistent anomalies of the Southern Hemisphere circulation. NASA Tech. Memo. 84983, pp. 139‑141.

Shukla, J., 1983: Ability and limitations of general circulation models to simulate climate and climate variability. Proceedings of the Study Conference on the Physical Basis for Climate Prediction of Seasonal, Annual and Decadal Time Scales (Sept. 13‑17, 1982), Leningrad, USSR. WCP‑47, pp. 97‑127.

Shukla, J., 1983: Comments on "Natural variability and predictability." Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 581‑585.

Shukla, J., 1983: On physical basis and feasibility of monthly and seasonal prediction with a large GCM. Proceedings of WMO‑CAS/JAS Expert Study Conference on Long Range Forecasting (1‑4 December, 1982), Princeton, NJ, WMO, LRF Publ. Series No. 1., pp. 142‑153.

Shukla, J. and D. S. Gutzler, 1983: Interannual variability and predictability of 500 mb geopotential heights over the Northern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1273‑1279.

Shukla, J. and K. C. Mo, 1983: Seasonal and geographical variation of blocking. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 388‑402.

Shukla, J. and D. A. Paolino, 1983: The Southern Oscillation and long range forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1830‑1837.

Shukla, J. and J. M. Wallace, 1983: Numerical simulation of the atmospheric response to equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 1613‑1630.

1982

Shukla, J., 1982: Predictability of time averages: The influence of the boundary forcing. NASA Tech. Memo. 85092, (NTIS #8411624), pp. 63.

Shukla, J., 1982: Predictability of the tropical atmosphere. Tropical Ocean‑Atmosphere Newsletter, November, 7‑9.

Shukla, J. and W. E. Baker, 1982: Analysis and prediction of the monsoon flow during the summer MONEX. Proceedings of the International Conference on Scientific Results of the Monsoon Experiment (October, 1981), Indonesia, (published by ICSU/WMO, Geneva) 4.3‑4.11.

Shukla, J. and Y. Mintz, 1982: The influence of land‑surface evapotranspiration on the earth's climate. Science, 214, 1498‑1501.

1981

Charney, J. G. and J. Shukla, 1981: Predictability of monsoons. Monsoon Dynamics, Editors: Sir James Lighthill and R. P. Pearce, Cambridge University Press, pp. 99‑ 109.

Charney, J. G., J. Shukla and K. C. Mo, 1981: Comparison of a barotropic blocking theory with observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 762‑779.

Chen, T. C., H. G. Marshall and J. Shukla, 1981: Wavenumber‑frequency spectra and maintenance of large‑scale moving waves by nonlinear interactions at 200 mb of GLAS general circulation model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 959‑974.

Godbole, R. V. and J. Shukla, 1981: Global analysis of January and July sea level pressure. NASA Tech. Memo. 82097.

Kalnay, E., W. E. Baker and J. Shukla, 1981: Numerical prediction of the large scale tropical flow. Proceedings of the Symposium on Meteorological Aspects of Tropical Droughts (7‑11 December, 1981), New Delhi, India, (Published by WMO).

Moura, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1981: On the dynamics of droughts in northeast Brazil: Observations, theory and numerical experiments with a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 2653‑2675.

Paolino, D. and J. Shukla, 1981: Interannual variability of monsoon rainfall and Northern Hemispheric surface pressure. Proceedings of the Symposium on Meteorological Aspects of Tropical Droughts (7‑11 December, 1981), New Delhi, India. Edited by R. P. Pearce. World Meteorological Organization, pp. 41‑48

Saha, K. R., F. Sanders and J. Shukla, 1981: Westward‑propagating predecessors of monsoon depressions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 330‑343.

Shukla, J., 1981: Dynamical predictability of monthly means. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 2547‑2572.

Shukla, J., 1981: Physical basis for prediction of tropical droughts. Proceedings of the Symposium on Meteorological Aspects of Tropical Droughts (7‑11 December, 1981), New Delhi, India. Edited by R. P. Pearce, World Meteorological Organization, pp. 27‑40.

Shukla, J., 1981: Predictability of the tropical atmosphere. NASA Tech. Memo. 83829, pp 51.

Shukla, J., 1981: Structure and dynamics of monsoon depressions: The MONEX depression (July 1979). (Invited paper) Proceedings of the FGGE/MONEX Meeting (January, 1981), Tallahassee, Florida, p. 11.3‑11.7 (published by ICSU/WMO, Geneva). NASA Tech. Memo. 83907, pp. 217‑222.

Shukla, J. and Y. C. Sud, 1981: Effect of cloud‑radiation feedback on the climate of a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 2337‑2353.

Shukla, J., R. Atlas and W. E. Baker, 1981: Numerical prediction of the monsoon depression of 5‑7 July, 1979. Proceedings of the FGGE/MONEX Meeting (January, 1981), Tallahassee, Florida, p. 11.3‑11.7 (published by ICSU/WMO, Geneva). NASA Tech. Memo. 83907, pp. 223‑230.

Shukla, J., K. C. Mo and M. Eaton, 1981: Climatology of blocking in the GLAS climate model. NASA Tech. Memo. 83907, pp. 207-216.

Shukla, J., D. Straus, D. Randall, Y. Sud and L. Marx, 1981: Winter and summer simulations with the GLAS climate model. NASA Tech. Memo. 83866, pp. 1‑282.

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1981: Global and local fluctuations of winter and summer simulations with the GLAS climate model. NASA Tech. Memo. 83907, pp. 231‑236.

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1981: Space‑time spectral analysis of the GLAS model. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 902‑917.

1980

Saha, K. R. and J. Shukla, 1980: Further evidence of association of westward propagating disturbances with monsoon depressions. FGGE Operations Report No. 9, 23‑31.

Shukla, J., Y. Sud and E. Sabatino, 1980: Preliminary results of a January simulation with an improved version of the GLAS model. NASA Tech. Memo. 80650, pp. 121‑132.

1979

Halem, M., J. Shukla, Y. Mintz, M. L. Wu, R. Godbole, G. Herman and Y. Sud, 1979: Climate comparisons of a winter and summer numerical simulation with the GLAS general circulation model. GARP Publication Series, 22, 207‑253.

Shukla, J., and B. Bangaru, 1979: Effect of a Pacific SST anomaly on the circulation over North America: A numerical experiment with the GLAS model. GARP Publication Series, 22, 501‑518.

1978

Shukla, J., 1978: CISK‑barotropic‑baroclinic instability and the growth of monsoon depressions. J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 495‑508.

1977

Charney, J. G. and J. Shukla, 1977: Predictability of Monsoons. Presented at the Joint IUTAM/IUGG Symposium on Monsoon Dynamics (5‑9 December, 1977), New Delhi, India.

Shukla, J. 1977: Barotropic‑baroclinic instability of mean zonal wind during summer monsoon. Pure and Appl. Geop., 115, 1449‑1462.

Shukla, J. and B. N. Misra, 1977: Relationships between sea surface temperature and wind speed over the Central Arabia Sea, and monsoon rainfall over India. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 998‑1002.

1976

Hahn, D. and J. Shukla, 1976: An apparent relationship between Eurasia snow cover and Indian monsoon rainfall. J. Atmos. Sci., 33, 2461-2463.

Shukla, J., 1976: Reply. J. Atmos. Sci., 253‑255. 1975

Shukla, J., 1975: Effect of Arabian sea‑surface temperature anomaly on Indian summer monsoon: A numerical experiment with GFDL model. J. Atmos. Sci., 32, 503‑511.

1974

Shukla, J. and K. R. Saha, 1974: Computation of non‑divergent stream functions and irrational velocity potential from the observed winds. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 419‑425.

1973

Phillips, N. A. and J. Shukla, 1973: On the strategy of combining coarse and find grid meshes in numerical weather prediction. J. Appl. Met., 12, 736‑770.

1972

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1972: Concurrent association between 700 mb, 5 day mean contour patterns and 5 day rainfall anomaly over India during July. Indian J. Meteor. Geophys., 23, 29‑34.

Shukla, J., 1972: Barotropic Model, A Review. Indian J. Meteor. Geophys., 23, 201‑206.

1971

Shukla, J., 1971: On the numerical solution of diabatic quasi‑geostrophic omega equations. Indian J. Meteor. Geophys., 22, 35‑46.

Shukla, J. and P. P. Sajnani, 1971: A note on the magnitude of horizontal divergence. Indian J. Meteor. Geophys., 22, 235‑236.

1970

Shukla, J. and K. R. Saha, 1970: Application of nondivergent barotropic model to predict flow patterns in the Indian region. J. Met. Soc. of Japan, 48, 405‑410.

1969

Shukla, J., 1969: An iterative scheme for diagnostic studies: A proposal. Indian J. Meteor. Geophys., 20, 119‑122.

Shukla, J., 1969: A numerical experiment on a disturbance in the tropical easterlies. J. Met. Soc. of Japan, 47, 109‑114

Shukla, J., 1969: An objective method of quantitative estimation of abnormal pentad rainfall over Ratnagiri during July. Indian J. Meteor. Geophys., 20, 59‑60. 1968

Shukla, J. and R. Suryanarayana, 1968: Forecasting five‑day mean contours of 700 mb using empirical influence co‑efficients. Indian J. Meteor. Geophys., 19, 407‑412

Shukla, J., S. K. Das and S. S. Kutival, 1968: Forecasting of pentad rainfall anomaly over Allahabad during the month of July. Scientific Report No. 58, India Meteorological Department.

Shukla, J., S. K. Das and A. Sethumadhavan, 1968: Forecasting pentad rainfall anomaly over coastal Andhra Pradesh in July. Indian J. Meteor. Geophys., 19, 445‑448.

1967

Shukla, J., 1967: An objective method of forecasting pentad rainfall anomaly in Konkan coast during July. Indian J. Meteor. Geophys., 18, 363-366.

References