Mexican general election, 2006

For other elections in Mexico during 2006, see 2006 Mexican elections. For election disputes and controversies, see Mexican general election 2006 controversies.

Mexican general election, 2006

2000 ← July 2, 2006 → 2012

Nominee Felipe Calderón Andrés Manuel López Obrador Roberto Madrazo Party PAN PRD PRI Home state Michoacán Tabasco Tabasco Popular vote 15,000,284 14,756,350 9,301,441 Percentage 35.89% 35.31% 22.26%

Presidential election results map. Blue denotes states won by Calderón (16), Yellow denotes those won by López Obrador (15+DF). Numbers indicate the number of each state.

President before election Vicente Fox PAN Elected President Felipe Calderón PAN

A general election was held in Mexico on Sunday, July 2, 2006. Voters went to the polls to elect, on the federal level:

• A new President of the Republic to serve a six-year term, replacing then Mexican President Vicente Fox (ineligible for re-election under the 1917 Constitution).
• 500 members (300 by the first-past-the-post system and 200 by proportional representation) to serve for a three-year term in the Chamber of Deputies.
• 128 members (three per state by first-past-the-post and 32 by proportional representation from national party lists) to serve six-year terms in the Senate. In each state, two first-past-the-post seats are allocated to the party with the largest share of the vote, and the remaining seat is given to the first runner-up.

Several local ballots were also held on the same day, most notably:

• The election of a new Head of Government and new Legislative Assembly of the Federal District. See: 2006 Mexican Federal District election.
• Gubernatorial elections in the states of Guanajuato, Jalisco and Morelos.
• Municipal and local congressional elections in those three states and in Campeche, Colima, Nuevo León, Querétaro, and Sonora. San Luis Potosí also elected a new local congress.

Presidential election

On September 5, 2006, Felipe Calderón Hinojosa was declared President-Elect^[1] by the Federal Electoral Tribunal after a highly controversial post-electoral process.

Eight political parties participated in the 2006 presidential election; five of them joined forces in two different electoral coalitions.

Competition was fierce, with the National Action Party (PAN) eager to hold on to the presidency for a second period, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) equally keen to regain the office it lost in the 2000 election for the first time in 71 years (then in coalition with the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico), and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) (then in coalition with Convergence and the Labor Party) believing itself to have a good chance to win after disappointments in the two previous elections.

Preliminary results

On July 6, 2006 the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) announced the final vote count in the 2006 presidential election, resulting in a narrow margin of 0.58 percentage points of victory for Felipe Calderón Hinojosa (PAN). Calderon's victory was confirmed by the Federal courts on September 5, 2006, and he was declared President-elect of Mexico.^[2] However, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD), and his party, alleged irregularities in over 30% of the country's polling stations, and still after an unsuccessful judicial appeal of election results the PRD continued to call for street protests.^details

Quick count

The IFE declared at 11:00 pm on July 2, 2006 that the statistics yielded by the official quick count indicated that the presidential election was too close to call, meaning that the difference between the two front-runners was smaller than their margin of error, or 0.3% of the vote.^[3] The IFE further declared that the official count, which began on Wednesday, July 5, 2006, was to determine which candidate will be recognized as president elect.

Nevertheless, front-running presidential candidates Felipe Calderón Hinojosa (PAN) and Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) declared themselves the winners, basing their speeches on a number of private exit-polls, some quoted and some not quoted, that gave a lead within the margin of error. PAN chairman Manuel Espino Barrientos requested that IFE declare a winner by the night of July 3, 2006.^[4]

Preliminary results clearly showed that PRI-PVEM candidate Roberto Madrazo did not have a realistic chance of winning the presidency. Those results also showed that the smaller parties (Nueva Alianza and Alternativa Socialdemócrata y Campesina) would retain their registration.

The so-called "foreign vote", whereby for the first time Mexican citizens living abroad were allowed to vote, albeit solely in the presidential contest, totalled only slightly more than 32,000 voters. The overall turn-out for this election was approximately 59% of the eligible voters.

Preliminary Electoral Results Program

The Preliminary Electoral Results Program (Programa de Resultados Electorales Preliminares, or PREP) is mandated by law to provide a quick estimate of the electoral results, but it has no authority to determine the outcome of the election.

This point was made repeatedly by IFE President Ugalde in his official statements as the 2006 electoral process unfolded.^[5] The use of the PREP has been criticized because its data has been used by one candidate to proclaim his victory and by the other as supposed evidence of fraud. However, the PREP tends to predict the winner accurately when the difference between candidates is more than 1% (a condition that was not met in this election).

IFE information coordinator René Miranda dismissed PRD allegations that the changes in PREP's numbers were statistically improbable, saying the PREP was used objectively and impartially to "reflect the reality of the country".^[6]

Official count

After the PREP was concluded on 4 July, the official district-based counts were begun on Wednesday 5 July 2006. In accordance with the Federal Code of Electoral Procedures and Institutions (COFIPE), each of Mexico's 300 congressional districts tabulated the votes recorded on the tally sheets (the "actas") for each voting precinct in their district. "In some cases, such as when a tally sheet was illegible, the sealed ballot packets were opened and recounted."^[7] All under the eyes of any election observers that any political party cared to provide.

The district committee results, along with the ballots, were then transferred to the IFE in Mexico City, which resulted in the running total shown below.^[8] Early returns favored López Obrador, but by 04:07 Mexico City time, Calderón overtook him. By 07:45, Calderón was leading by approximately 0.33% of the vote.

Calderón vs. López Obrador in IFE reports. Note that this shows only the percentages between 34% and 37.5%.

The volatility in the vote count was not unexpected. From the beginning, the IFE stated that running totals should not be construed as a trend, and that the official result would be released only when all polling stations had been counted. Several northern states, which strongly favored the PAN party in the PREP results, were slow in counting their ballots.^[9][10] This delay was at least partially attributable to the double-checking of district station totals with the actual ballot counts, that any political party may ask for under Mexican law.^[11]

On 6 July, having narrowly lost the preliminary official count, López Obrador declared his intent to challenge the results before the Federal Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF), and demand a full recount of all ballots in Mexico City.^[12] On 8 July, his supporters met at Mexico City's Zócalo square to start what Obrador called "the defense of the popular vote".^[13] The PRD also made a presentation on alleged election irregularities, including (as reported in La Jornada), allegations that around 7:00 PM, the IFE's running scoreboard vote tally blinked zero for all candidates for a period of 4 minutes.^{[citation needed]}

The election-inspired protests were largely peaceful, and according to former IFE president José Woldenberg, well within the law. However some unions and PRD supporters called for "civil resistance" if the courts decided to ratify Calderón's victory.^[14] Some, like editorialist Armando Fuentes Aguirre, expressed concern that this could lead to armed conflict.

On 5 September 2006 the Federal Electoral Court declared Calderón the definitive winner.

The final vote tally of the top two candidates was Calderón 35.89% (15,000,284 votes), López Obrador 35.31% (14,756,350 votes),^[15][16][17] a difference of 243,934 (or 0.58%) votes.

Election monitors from the European Union stated on 8 July that they found no irregularities that could have affected the transparency of the results and that could have impacted the results.^[18] Other election monitors found many examples of fraud and irregularities and demanded a full recount^{[citation needed]}. See also: Mexican general election 2006 controversies

Earlier media reports had indicated that in two separate incidents, one in Ciudad Nezahualcóyotl and one in Xalapa, used ballots and other electoral materials were found in rubbish dumps.^[19][20][21] Reforma later reported that this supposed electoral material was found to be photocopies and did not influence the election. Al Giordano, though, in a July 8 Narco News article, has a La Jornada photo of three completed color ballots found in a Mexico City trash can.^[22]

Time (CDT)	Polling stations counted	Calderón Hinojosa	López Obrador	Madrazo Pintado	Link
12:02	25.38%	34.39%	36.98%	22.03%	[1]
13:00	35.95%	34.36%	37.06%		[2]
13:33	40.05%	34.41%	36.99%	21.99%	[3]
14:33	50.16%	34.39%	37.15%	21.88%	[4]
15:06	54.92%	34.56%	37.11%	21.77%	[5]
15:42	60.07%	34.56%	37.09%
16:01	62.61%	34.53%	37.09%
16:13	64.34%	34.56%	36.98%	21.92%	[6]
16:29	65.68%	34.60%	36.91%	21.94%	[7]
17:02	69.01%	34.64%	36.81%	21.98%	[8]
17:31	71.46%	34.56%	36.87%	22.02%	[9]
17:39	72.86%	34.55%	36.86%	22.03%	[10]
17:51	73.58%	34.57%	36.85%	22.02%	[11]
18:04	74.68%	34.60%	36.81%	22.03%	[12]
18:12	75.08%	34.62%	36.78%	22.05%	[13]
18:25	76.46%	34.62%	36.76%	22.07%	[14]
18:42	77.93%	34.63%	36.73%	22.09%	[15]
18:57	79.21%	34.65%	36.71%	22.10%	[16]
19:09	80.12%	34.67%	36.69%	22.11%	[17]
19:22	81.04%	34.68%	36.65%	22.12%	[18]
19:43	82.46%	34.71%	36.60%	22.15%	[19]
19:56	83.53%	34.73%	36.55%	22.18%	[20]
20:11	84.13%	34.74%	36.52%	22.19%	[21]
20:24	84.84%	34.74%	36.51%	22.20%	[22]
20:32	85.34%	34.77%	36.49%	22.20%	[23]
20:46	85.98%	34.79%	36.47%	22.19%	[24]
21:00	86.19%	34.81%	36.46%		[25]
21:20	87.05%	34.85%	36.44%		[26]
21:47	88.40%	34.96%	36.33%		[27]
23:03	91.71%	35.09%	36.15%	22.22%	[28]
23:10	91.86%	35.10%	36.14%		[29]
23:23	92.45%	35.13%	36.09%	22.23%	[30]
23:28	92.57%	35.14%	36.08%	22.23%	[31]
23:35	92.83%	35.16%	36.06%	22.24%	[32]
23:45	93.10%	35.17%	36.05%	22.24%	[33]
23:50	93.20%	35.17%	36.03%	22.24%	[34]
23:54	93.32%	35.18%	36.03%	22.25%	[35]
00:00	93.44%	35.21%	36.00%	22.25%	[36]
00:05	93.57%	35.22%	35.99%	22.25%	[37]
00:10	93.77%	35.22%	35.99%	22.25%	[38]
00:20	94.09%	35.24%	35.97%	22.25%	[39]
00:30	94.32%	35.26%	35.95%	22.25%	[40]
00:45	94.61%	35.28%	35.92%	22.26%	[41]
00:50	94.69%	35.29%	35.91%	22.26%	[42]
01:00	94.76%	35.30%	35.90%	22.26%	[43]
01:10	94.92%	35.32%	35.88%	22.26%	[44]
01:15	95.06%	35.32%	35.87%	22.26%	[45]
01:20	95.17%	35.33%	35.86%	22.26%	[46]
01:25	95.40%	35.34%	35.85%	22.26%	[47]
01:30	95.48%	35.35%	35.84%	22.27%	[48]
01:40	95.64%	35.37%	35.82%	22.27%	[49]
01:45	95.72%	35.37%	35.81%	22.27%	[50]
01:55	95.79%	35.39%	35.80%	22.27%	[51]
02:00	95.93%	35.40%	35.79%	22.28%	[52]
02:05	96.08%	35.41%	35.77%	22.28%	[53]
02:10	96.20%	35.42%	35.76%	22.28%	[54]
02:20	96.36%	35.44%	35.75%	22.27%	[55]
02:28	96.42%	35.45%	35.74%	22.27%	[56]
02:35	96.48%	35.45%	35.73%	22.27%	[57]
02:40	96.54%	35.46%	35.73%	22.27%	[58]
02:50	96.85%	35.49%	35.70%	22.27%	[59]
03:00	96.89%	35.49%	35.70%	22.27%	[60]
03:10	97.03%	35.51%	35.68%	22.27%	[61]
03:15	97.08%	35.52%	35.67%	22.27%	[62]
03:25	97.19%	35.54%	35.66%	22.27%	[63]
03:30	97.19%	35.55%	35.65%	22.26%	[64]
03:40	97.37%	35.56%	35.63%	22.26%	[65]
03:42	97.44%	35.57%	35.62%	22.27%	[66]
03:55	97.51%	35.58%	35.61%	22.27%	[67]
04:00	97.58%	35.59%	35.61%	22.27%	[68]
04:07	97.70%	35.60%	35.59%	22.27%	[69]
04:15	97.84%	35.62%	35.57%	22.27%	[70]
04:25	97.92%	35.63%	35.56%	22.27%	[71]
04:45	98.05%	35.65%	35.54%	22.27%	[72]
05:00	98.18%	35.66%	35.53%	22.27%	[73]
05:25	98.41%	35.68%	35.51%	22.28%	[74]
06:22	98.91%	35.74%	35.44%		[75]
06:56	99.02%	35.76%	35.43%	22.27%	[76]
07:48	99.21%	35.77%	35.42%	22.27%	[77]
08:23	99.31%	35.79%	35.40%		[78]
08:31	99.36%	35.80%	35.39%		[79]
09:56	99.56%	35.82%	35.37%	22.27%	[80]
10:45	99.64%	35.84%	35.35%	22.27%	[81]
11:27	99.73%	35.85%	35.34%		[82]
12:59	99.94%	35.87%	35.32%	22.27%	[83]
14:00	99.98%	35.88%	35.31%		[84]
15:10	100.0%	35.89%	35.31%	22.26%	[85]

Results by state

Based on the official results of the Federal Electoral Institute

State	Calderón	López Obrador	Madrazo	Mercado	Campa	Write-in	None
Aguascalientes	193,588	89,920	97,935	16,275	5,597	3,335	7,669
Baja California	450,186	224,275	203,233	35,917	13,522	6,488	17,099
Baja California Sur	62,127	77,875	29,874	5,470	1,475	1,225	2,801
Campeche	99,526	101,192	87,412	4,756	8,470	1,652	9,514
Chiapas	215,358	551,749	427,351	15,065	7,378	8,395	47,327
Chihuahua	523,914	212,069	341,916	31,414	20,375	6,540	25,405
Coahuila	400,894	225,117	245,960	26,450	8,412	8,192	14,919
Colima	107,880	61,434	76,586	5,284	1,567	784	4,591
Distrito Federal	1,325,474	2,813,112	413,644	175,517	27,152	14,833	69,553
Durango	255,229	128,881	153,990	11,188	5,769	6,113	10,873
Guanajuato	1,155,403	301,463	368,789	49,753	18,611	17,136	49,896
Guerrero	160,253	510,217	263,035	16,809	10,493	7,132	24,172
Hidalgo	251,772	385,750	235,926	25,702	15,360	6,444	24,636
Jalisco	1,435,334	559,266	705,925	93,836	37,739	16,537	61,729
México	1,771,515	2,469,093	1,033,110	215,857	61,494	48,075	101,188
Michoacán	515,600	615,535	283,157	29,951	8,229	10,780	31,845
Morelos	226,340	312,815	111,118	24,736	12,129	6,901	15,062
Nayarit	69,097	152,999	123,284	7,730	3,840	1,919	6,978
Nuevo León	865,006	282,384	488,402	51,760	31,112	11,343	39,211
Oaxaca	226,304	620,062	428,026	19,482	5,620	7,672	42,017
Puebla	743,831	639,659	460,183	50,234	20,418	16,227	53,614
Querétaro	322,975	160,383	133,188	16,536	6,028	5,823	15,451
Quintana Roo	111,485	147,839	105,086	8,801	2,768	2,729	7,014
San Luis Potosí	462,329	204,983	207,602	23,648	8,360	7,470	37,332
Sinaloa	363,461	301,709	263,553	20,620	6,717	5,397	19,227
Sonora	468,288	240,114	175,365	23,187	6,914	3,724	16,345
Tabasco	31,975	512,743	344,526	4,261	1,906	1,582	14,120
Tamaulipas	506,177	324,491	317,849	25,025	12,424	15,853	24,103
Tlaxcala	140,128	180,487	59,672	11,130	3,426	6,504	8,883
Veracruz	1,006,676	1,036,474	727,638	55,971	17,777	25,396	72,412
Yucatán	364,353	125,152	260,116	12,962	4,504	6,784	15,284
Zacatecas	167,806	187,088	128,392	13,523	6,218	9,004	13,224
Total	15,000,284	14,756,350	9,301,441	1,128,850	401,804	297,989	904,604

Post-election controversy

Main article: Mexican general election 2006 controversies

Soon after it was clear that the official count would result with Felipe Calderón ahead, Andrés Manuel López Obrador stated that he and his party, the PRD, would fight for a "vote-by-vote" general recount.

He presented nine boxes and 900 pages of supposed evidence alleging mathematical electoral irregularities in 50,000 polling places to the Federal Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF). In addition, he claimed that in areas with large numbers of López Obrador supporters, election officials nullified 900,000 votes.^[23]

Supporters of López Obrador marching in Guanajuato

López Obrador and his supporters began organizing mass protests, marches, and civil disobedience, culminating in a massive rally in Mexico City's historic Zócalo on 30 July 2006. Estimates of the crowd at the rally range from 500,000 to 3,000,000 supporters.^[24] Additionally, López Obrador's campaign has set up plantones, or encampments, inside the Zócalo and along Paseo de la Reforma, one of Mexico City's main arteries, for 47 days and slowing traffic for hours. The encampents were widely unpopular, as 65% of inhabitants in Mexico City opposed them.^[25]

On Saturday, 5 August, the TEPJF met in public session to decide the outcome of López Obrador's request for a recount. The seven magistrates voted unanimously that there was only sufficient legal justification to order the recount of 11,839 ballot boxes in 155 districts (9.2% of the total), thus rejecting López Obrador's public demand that all votes and ballot boxes be recounted. [86] The Tribunal based its decision of a partial recount on its finding that, despite publicly demanding a vote by vote general recount, López Obrador's party only presented legal claims to less than 44,000 polling stations, or less than 34%. Therefore, legally, only those 44,000 polling stations were deemed controversial by the TEPJF. The Tribunal ruled that the non-controversial votes should not be recounted, because "the certainty asked by the Coalition (of López Obrador's party) is tied to the respect of the citizen counts in non-controversial polling stations". However, the Tribunal did certify that principles of certainty in the elections called for a justified recount in some of the controversial stations, as irregularities were found.^[26]

In the western state of Jalisco alone, 2,705 ballot boxes (33% of the state's total) will be recounted due to "evident mathematical errors". The state with the highest percentage of ballot boxes to be reopened is Aguascalientes with 436 or 35% of its 1,226 total ballot boxes. Other states with a high percentage of ballot boxes authorized to be opened include: Tamaulipas, 942 ballot boxes (or 23.7% of total ballot boxes); Campeche, 170 (18.3%); Chihuahua, 727 (15%); Durango, 344 (15.4%); Nuevo León, 508 (10%); San Luis Potosí, 495 (16%); Sinaloa, 334 (7.7%); Yucatán, 228 (10.5%); Zacatecas, 221 (9.23%); Querétaro, 9.4%.

States with small percentages include: Chiapas, 81 ballot boxes (1.6%); Distrito Federal, 227 (1.85%); Estado de México, 362 (2.33%); Michoacán, 300 (5.5%); Morelos, 124 (6%); Puebla, 194 (3.22%); Veracruz, 396 (6.56%); and Quintana Roo, 10 (0.8%).^[27]

The recount commenced on Wednesday, 9 August, (CBC) (VOA) and concluded on Sunday, 13 August. Only after calculated the recounted votes will the TEPJF declare the candidate with the most votes as president-elect.^[28]

On Friday, August 11, both disputing parties held press conferences, in which, despite the TEPJF's insistence that no recount results would be released until Sunday, each provided their own internal figures based on their observers in the recount. These figures clashed dramatically; according to the PAN, 75% of the votes had been recounted and the results confirmed that the initial count was "perfect", with fewer than three errors per ballot box and no systemic bias. (This is the message that most of the press reported, although others reported that the "75% without errors" figure was out of the completed, not the total, recount; still, the figures were hard to square with Coalition claims.) The Coalition claimed that only 60% of the recount was complete, and that in this recount their party had gained an average of 29 votes per ballot box. (Again, this was the message in most of the press, though other press outlets seemed to imply that the Coalition claims included lost or excess ballots as well as miscounted ones.). [87]

On August 28, the TEPJF announced the results of the partial recount, subtracting 81,080 votes for Calderón, 76,897 votes for López Obrador, 63,114 for Roberto Madrazo, 5,962 for Patricia Mercado, 2,743 for Roberto Campa, and 7,940 for the remaining candidates. A total of 237,736 votes were annulled out of the approximately 4 million votes recounted. Than means around 6% of the recounted votes were annulled.^[29][30]

Despite the Tribunal's ruling, and despite the ruling being based on his party's decision of not contesting all polls judicially, López Obrador continues to demand the "vote-by-vote" general recount, promising to continue civil disobedience and sit-ins. He was quoted as saying, "We don't want a portion of democracy. We want 100% democracy." [88]

A day before the end of the recount, López Obrador's coalition threatened with national mobilizations to prevent the "imposition" of Calderón, if the PAN candidate was confirmed winner of the election. [89]

Calls for electoral reform

On Thursday November 23, 2006 the European Union (EU) election observer mission presented its final report.^[31][32] The report was generally positive and defended the official result of the July 2 presidential election saying they "reflect[ed] the legitimate will of the Mexican people." However, the report also expressed concerns and raised several criticisms, both general and specific, of the electoral process and the election. The report includes 48 specific recommendations for future reform to "strengthen the electoral process", such as introducing random automatic recounts in the case of a close election, shortening the campaign period, considering the introduction of a two round run-off system for presidential elections, and general clarifications in the electoral law (e.g., clarifying the grounds for requesting a recount and for the annulling of the election).

A November 24, 2006 article by The Herald Mexico reports:^[33] "All of Mexico's major parties have called for reforms to electoral laws, including clearer limits on funding, greater transparency on campaign spending and a shorter campaign period."

The article also reports: "The EU mission, headed by Spanish Deputy José Ignacio Salafranca, said on Thursday that a runoff election would help the nation's electoral system, especially following results as close as this year's, when Felipe Calderón beat Andrés Manuel López Obrador by less than a percentage point. In a news conference, Salafranca said that while a second round would be expensive, it would give 'greater democratic legitimacy' to the result."

Presidential candidates

There were five registered candidates for the 2006 presidential election:

Party/Alliance		Photo	Candidate	Slogan
	National Action Party		Felipe Calderón	Para que vivamos mejor "So we can live better"
	Coalition for the Good of All (PRD, PT, Convergence)		Andrés Manuel López Obrador	Por el bien de todos, primero los pobres "For the Good of All, the poor are first"
	Alliance for Mexico (PRI, PVEM)		Roberto Madrazo	Mover a México para que las cosas se hagan "Moving Mexico to get things done"
	Social Democratic and Peasant Alternative Party		Patricia Mercado Castro	Palabra de mujer "A woman's word"
	New Alliance Party		Roberto Campa Cifrián	Uno de tres "One out of three"

A non-registered candidate, Víctor González Torres (nicknamed "Dr. Simi" after the mascot of his national drugstore franchise) made a massive marketing campaign to enter the election, in spite of not being registered as an official candidate, and ran as a write-in candidate. His franchise slogan is "The same only cheaper", but his campaign one is "To serve God and the people of Mexico". Ironically, he has frequently stressed the fact that he pays all of his own campaign expenses, thus being the "cheapest" candidate. He was not considered a formal candidate but many press sources still publish his sayings and complaints against IFE, while some sources consider him a sort of "comic relief".

Summary

e • d Summary of the 2 July 2006 Mexican presidential election results

Candidates		Party	Votes	%
	Felipe Calderón	National Action Party	15,000,284	35.89%
	Andrés Manuel López Obrador	Coalition for the Good of All (PRD, PT, CV)	14,756,350	35.31%
	Roberto Madrazo	Alliance for Mexico (PRI, PVEM)	9,301,441	22.26%
	Patricia Mercado	Social Democratic and Peasant Alternative Party	1,128,850	2.70%
	Roberto Campa Cifrián	New Alliance	401,804	0.96%
	Write in		297,989	0.71%
	Blank/Invalid		904,604	2.16%
Total			41,791,322	100.0%
Source: Instituto Federal Electoral [90]

Summary of the 2 July 2006 Mexican presidential preliminary election results

Candidates		Party	Votes	%
	Felipe Calderón	National Action Party	14,027,214	36.38%
	Andrés Manuel López Obrador	Coalition for the Good of All (PRD, PT, CV)	13,624,506	35.34%
	Roberto Madrazo	Alliance for Mexico (PRI, PVEM)	8,318,886	21.57%
	Patricia Mercado	Social Democratic and Peasant Alternative Party	1,085,966	2.81%
	Roberto Campa Cifrián	New Alliance	384,317	0.99%
	Write in		281,145	0.72%
	Blank/Invalid		827,317	2.14%
Total			38,549,351	100.00%
Source: Instituto Federal Electoral [91]

Polls

Opinion polls in the run-up to the election showed López Obrador and Calderón neck and neck. The last polls conducted before the polling blackout that begins eight days before the election all showed López Obrador and Calderón tied with the results within the margins of error. Both Reforma and El Universal newspapers, considered by many to be Mexico City's most influential, gave López Obrador a two point edge over Calderón.

The candidates of the smaller parties also gained ground at the expense of Roberto Madrazo and López Obrador. The last poll from El Universal showed Patricia Mercado of Social Democratic and Farmer Alternative had gained enough support for her party to retain its registry. In the latest Zogby poll, Madrazo, however, trailed the leader Calderón by only 8 points and was only 4 points behind López Obrador.

Averaging the last ten polls conducted before the polling blackout (between 20 June and 23 June), López Obrador edged out Calderón by a razor-thin half percentage point with 35.1%. Calderón had 34.6% and Madrazo came in third with 26%.

Date	Publisher	Source	López Obrador	Calderón	Madrazo
June 23, 2006	Reforma	[92]	36%	34%	25%
June 23, 2006	El Universal	[93]	36%	34%	26%
June 23, 2006	Ulises Beltran y Asociados	[94]	34%	34%	26%
June 22, 2006	Milenio Diario	[95]	35.4%	30.5%	29.6%
June 22, 2006	GEA-ISA	[96]	36%	38%	23%
June 22, 2006	Alducin y Asociados	[97]	34%	38%	24%
June 22, 2006	Consulta Mitofsky	[98]	36%	33%	27%
June 21, 2006	Indermerc	[99]	33%	32%	28%
June 21, 2006	Marketing Político	[100]	34%	37%	26%
June 20, 2006	Parametría	[101]	36.5%	32.5%	27%
June 19, 2006	Zogby	[102]	31%	35%	27%
June 14, 2006	Reforma	[103]	37%	35%	23%
June 13, 2006	Milenio Diario	[104]	34.2%	31%	29.6%
June 13, 2006	Consulta Mitofsky	[105]	35%	32%	28%
June 12, 2006	El Universal	[106]	34%	37%	22%
June 11, 2006	GEA-ISA	[107]	35%	39%	23%
June 6, 2006	El Universal	[108]	36%	36%	24%
June 6, 2006	Parametría	[109]	35.5%	34.4%	27%
June 5, 2006	BGC, Beltrán y Asociados	[110]	35%	35%	26%
May 29, 2006	Milenio Diario	[111]	33%	33%	30%
May 29, 2006	Consulta Mitofsky	[112]	34%	34%	28%
May 28, 2006	GEA-ISA	[113]	31%	40%	27%
May 24, 2006	Reforma		35%	39%	22%
May 19, 2006	Zogby	[114]	29%	34%	22%
May 15, 2006	El Universal	[115]	35%	39%	21%
May 8, 2006	Parametría	[116]	34%	36%	26%
May 4, 2006	GEA-ISA	[117]	31%	41%	25%
May 3, 2006	Consulta Mitofsky		34%	35%	27%
May 3, 2006	Reforma		33%	40%	22%
May 2, 2006	Milenio Diario	[118]	33%	36%	28%
April 23, 2006	Parametría	[119]	35%	33%	28%
April 17, 2006	El Universal	[120]	38%	34%	25%
April 6, 2006	Milenio Diario		34%	31%	31%
April 6, 2006	Arcop*		33%	36%	29%
March 27, 2006	Consulta Mitofsky		37.5%	30.6%	28.8%
March 27, 2006	BIMSA		31.2%	25.5%	21.4%
March 21, 2006	GEA-ISA	[121]	34%	36%	28%
March 16, 2006	Reforma		41%	31%	25%
March 13, 2006	El Universal		42%	32%	24%
February 22, 2006	Consulta Mitofsky	[122]	39.4%	29.8%	27.5%
February 21, 2006	GEA-ISA	[123]	34%	27%	22%
February 21, 2006	Reforma	[124]	38%	31%	29%
February 20, 2006	El Universal	[125]	30%	27%	22%
January 23, 2006	GEA-ISA	[126]	35%	35%	29%
January 26, 2006	El Universal	[127]	33%	27%	20%
January 20, 2006	Parametria	[128]	35.7%	27.4%	26.2%
January 20, 2006	TV Azteca	[129]	38%	31%	28%
January 19, 2006	Reforma	[130]	34%	26%	22%
January 19, 2006	La Jornada *	[131]	39%	27%	22%
January 18, 2006	Consulta Mitofsky	[132]	38.7%	31%	29.2%
January 8, 2006	Milenio Diario *	[133]	28%	30%	25%
December 5, 2005	Univision.com	[134]	34.8%	28.8%	30.4%
November 21, 2005	Reforma	[135]	29%	28%	21%
November 5, 2005	El Universal	[136]	34%	22%	18%
Date	Publisher	Source	López Obrador	Calderón	Madrazo

* Polls conducted by Arcop (published in Milenio and showed the first lead of Calderón over López Obrador) and Covarrubias (published in La Jornada, and the one that showed the highest lead of López Obrador) are internal polls, and generally not as reliable as the others.

Assets, liabilities and annual expenses

As of January 2005, only three candidates had made a public declaration of assets, liabilities and annual expenses. These figures were given in pesos, the total value of assets of each candidate follows at an exchange rate of 10.62 pesos to one United States dollar (Source: Banamex):

Candidate	Assets	Liabilities	Annual Expenses	As of (Date)	Source
López Obrador	MX$ 1,295,358 / US$ 121,973	0	MX$ 1,165,650 / US$ 109,760	June 3, 2004
Calderón	MX$ 8,803,885 / US$ 828,991	–	–	January 19, 2006
Madrazo	MX$ 29,398,668 / US$ 2,768,236	MX$ 39,290 / US$ 2,758	MX$ 475,000 / US$ 44,727	January 19, 2006

Presidential debates

A first presidential debate was held on 25 April 2006 with the presence of all candidates with the notable exception of López Obrador. López Obrador had refused to participate in all debates, and said he would only participate in one since long before the first debate was scheduled. The rest of the candidates agreed on leaving an empty chair to symbolize that the fifth candidate was indeed invited.

The silla vacía (Spanish for "empty chair") became the topic of political commentary shows and the press. Excélsior called the empty chair a "double-edged sword"^[34] coinciding with other publications and TV shows that leaving the empty chair could be construed as an insult to the audience and an attack to López Obrador. However, by the date of the debates, the statistical tendency in many polls had confirmed Calderón at the second spot and López Obrador still with a single digit advantage over him.

After the first debate some political commentators, media outlets, and polls indicated that Calderón^[35] was seen as the winner of the debate, Mercado as the pleasant surprise of the night.^[36] and a nervous Madrazo as the worst performer of the night.^[37] However, political analysts also said that the debate was unnecessarily full of promises and personal attacks. Analysts considered that López Obrador was negatively affected by his absence and polls later confirmed Calderón having replaced López Obrador as the leading candidate.

A second debate took place on 6 June of the same year, from 20:30 to 22:30,^[38] Central Time, with the confirmed presence of all candidates, including López Obrador. Media outlets have given results to telephone polls applied post-debate showing a mixed tendency. Most, like Reforma and Presente, gave Felipe Calderón the lead, but a few, like Diario Monitor, gave it to Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

However, the rise of López Obrador in voter preference polls since the debate seems to indicate that it was the PRD candidate who won it. One of the main causes for this victory may have been the Hildebrando accusation that López Obrador made during the debate.

Before the debate, Carlos Ahumada's wife threatened to release tapes involving allies of López Obrador in suspected acts of corruption, but the release was cancelled due to an attempted murder which is still under investigation. (See: Videoscandals).^[39]

Victor González Torres, a national pharmacy entrepreneur nicknamed "Dr. Simi", declared himself a non-registered write-in candidate and tried to enter the building where the debate was to take place. González Torres demanded to be allowed participation in the debate, but he was not allowed to enter the building where he made the demand. He even brought his own chair. Candidates with no political parties are not permitted to compete in elections under Mexican law, and votes for all write-in candidates are counted together, regardless of which write-in candidate the vote was cast.

Congressional Election

Eight political parties participated in the 2006 congressional election to renew all seats in the upper and lower houses of Congress.

In the current session of Congress, no party holds a majority.

Preliminary results below are as of 3 July 06:41 UTC.

Chamber of Deputies

Summary

e • d Summary of the 2 July 2006 Mexican Chamber of Deputies election results

Parties and/or coalitions			Votes	%	FPP	PR	Total seats
	National Action Party (Partido Acción Nacional)		13,845,121	33.41	137	69	206
	Coalition for the Good of All (Coalición por el Bien de Todos)	Party of the Democratic Revolution (Partido de la Revolución Democrática)	12,013,364	28.99	91	36	127
		Convergence (Convergencia)			5	12	17
		Labour Party (Partido del Trabajo)			2	10	12
		No party			0	1	1
	Alliance for Mexico (Alianza por México)	Institutional Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Institucional)	11,676,585	28.18	65	41	106
		Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (Partido Verde Ecologista de México)			0	17	17
	New Alliance Party (Partido Nueva Alianza)		1,883,476	4.55	0	9	9
	Social Democratic and Peasant Alternative Party (Partido Alternativa Socialdemócrata y Campesina)		850,989	2.05	0	4	4
Total			41,435,934	100.00	300	200	500
Source: Chamber of Deputies

Comparison

Party		LIX Legislature, 2003			LIX Leg. at dissolution		LX Legislature, 2006			Change, 2003–2006
		Deputies	% of Chamber	% of Vote	Deputies	% of Chamber	Deputies	% of Chamber	% of Vote	Deputies	% of Chamber	% of Vote
	PAN	149	29.8%	23.1%	148	29.6%	206	41.2%	33.7%	+ 57	+ 11.8%	+ 10.8%
	PRD	97	19.4%	17.6%	97	19.4%	(160)[40]	(32.0%)[40]	(29.0%)[40]	(+ 63)[40]	(+ 10.6%)[40]
	PRI	224	44.8%	30.6%	203	40.6%	(121)[41]	(24.2%)[41]	(27.6%)[41]	(- 103)[41]	(- 24.4%)[41]
	New Alliance	-	-	-	-	-	9	1.8%	4.7%	+ 9	+ 1.8%	+ 4.7%
	PASC	-	-	-	-	-	4	0.8%	2.2%	+ 4	+ 0.8%	+ 2.2%
	Green	17	3.4%	4.0%	17	3.4%			(n/a)[41]			(n/a)[41]
	Labour	6	1.2%	2.4%	6	1.2%			(n/a)[40]			(n/a)[40]
	Convergence	5	1.0%	2.3%	5	1.0%			(n/a)[40]			(n/a)[40]
	Independent	2	0.4%		24	4.8%
Total		500	100	100	500	100	500	100	100

Senate

Summary

e • d Summary of the 2 July 2006 Mexican Senate election results

Parties and/or coalitions			Votes	%	FPP	FM	PR	Total seats
	National Action Party (Partido Acción Nacional)		14,035,503	33.63	32	9	11	52
	Coalition for the Good of All (Coalición por el Bien de Todos)	Party of the Democratic Revolution (Partido de la Revolución Democrática)	12,397,008	29.70	22	4	5	31
		Labour Party (Partido del Trabajo)			0	0	3	3
		Convergence (Convergencia)			0	0	2	2
	Alliance for Mexico (Alianza por México)	Institutional Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Institucional)	11,681,395	27.99	10	19	6	35
		Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (Partido Verde Ecologista de México)			0	0	4	4
	New Alliance Party (Partido Nuevo Alianza)		1,688,198	4.04	0	0	1	1
	Social Democratic and Peasant Alternative Party {Partido Alternativa Socialdemócrata y Campesina)		795,730	1.91	0	0	0	0
Total			41,739,188	100.00	64	32	32	128
Source: Senate

Comparison

Party		LVIII Legislature, 2000			LIX Leg. at dissolution		LX Legislature, 2006			Change, 2000–2006
		Senators	% of Chamber	% of Vote	Senators	% of Chamber	Senators	% of Chamber	% of Vote	Senators	% of Chamber	% of Vote
	PAN	46	35.9%	†	47	36.7%	52	40.6%	34.1%	+ 6	+ 4.7%	- 1.8%
	PRD	15	11.7%	†	15	11.7%	(36)[40]	(28.1%)[40]	(29.8%)[40]	(+ 19)[40]	(+ 14.8%)[40]
	PRI	60	46.9%	36.7%	58	45.3%	(39)[41]	(30.7%)[41]	(27.4%)[41]	(- 27)[41]	(- 21.1%)[41]
	New Alliance	-	-	-	-	-	1	0.8%	4.2%	+ 1	+ 0.8%	+ 4.2%
	PASC	-	-	-	-	-			2.0%	+ 1	+ 0.8%	+ 2.0%
	Green	5	3.9%	†	5	3.9%			(n/a)[41]			(n/a)[41]
	Labour	1*	0.8%	†	1*	0.8%			(n/a)[40]			(n/a)[40]
	Convergence	1*	0.8%	†	1*	0.8%			(n/a)[40]			(n/a)[40]
	Independent	0	0.0%		1*	0.8%
Total		128	100	100	128	100	128	100	100

• * - Non-attached members
• † - Ran as part of slate.

See also

• Full list of elections in Mexico in 2006

Footnotes

1. ^ Proponen magistrados declarar Presidente electo a Calderón - El Universal - Elecciones
2. ^ Declara TEPJF a Felipe Calderón presidente electo - El Universal - Elecciones
3. ^ Aplaza IFE hasta el miércoles definición de elección presidencial - El Universal - Elecciones
4. ^ Pide PAN a IFE dar resultados esta noche :: México :: esmas
5. ^ http://www.ife.org.mx/discursosLCU.htm
6. ^ "AMLO Unveils His Ammo". The Washington Post. http://blog.washingtonpost.com/mexicovotes/2006/07/amlo_unveils_his_ammo.html. Retrieved May 12, 2010. 
7. ^ AlterNet: Evidence of Election Fraud Grows in México
8. ^ Mantiene IFE empate, el miércoles resultado final :: México :: esmas
9. ^ Registran siete estados un avance mayor a 90% en cómputo - El Universal - Elecciones
10. ^ Prevé Vázquez Mota que se revierta ventaja de AMLO en horas - El Universal - Elecciones
11. ^ Justifica Ugalde atraso de conteos distritales - El Universal - Elecciones
12. ^ "Mexico vote result on knife-edge". BBC News. July 6, 2006. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/5150440.stm. Retrieved May 12, 2010. 
13. ^ Impugnará AMLO elección; convoca a mitin en el Zócalo - El Universal - Elecciones
14. ^ http://www.elnorte.com/nacional/articulo/653878/ Amagan sindicatos con resistencia civil (requires subscription)
15. ^ El Universal, el periódico de México líder en noticias y clasificados
16. ^ El Economista.com.mx
17. ^ Ugalde se adelanta al TEPJF y declara ganador a Felipe Calderón
18. ^ EU says disputed Mexico vote fair BBC News
19. ^ Encuentran actas electorales en basurero de Veracruz El Universal
20. ^ Hallan papelería electoral en basurero de bordo de Xochiaca El Universal
21. ^ Encuentran papelería electoral en basurero de Neza El Economista
22. ^ Al Giordano's Mexico election fraud series. Part 2, 8 July 2006. Writing for Narco News.

    See also part 1 (July 5), part 3 (July 11), part 4 (August 5), part 5 (August 14).

23. ^ Bloomberg.com: Latin America
24. ^ Los Angeles Times. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mexico17jul17,0,1043192.story. Retrieved May 12, 2010. ^{[dead link]}
25. ^ Se opone al plantón 65% en DF August 14, 2006 El Universal.
26. ^ Defienden Certeza de Proceso Electoral, El Norte, August 8, 2006 (requires subscription)
27. ^ En algunos estados panistas se recontará en 35% de casillas
28. ^ Rechaza el TEPJF recuento voto por voto / 6 de Febrero de 2008
29. ^ "Mexican Court Rejects Election Fraud Challenges". James C. McKinley Jr., New York Times, 28 August 2006.
30. ^ "Mexican Court Rejects Election Fraud". ePluribus Media article, 30 August 2006.
31. ^ "The EU's Human rights and Democratisation Policy - European Union deploys Election Observation Mission to Mexico".
32. ^ "European Union Election Observation Mission Mexico 2006 Final Report". 23 November 2006.
33. ^ "EU team slams high costs". The Herald Mexico, 24 November 2006.
34. ^ La silla vacía puede ser arma de dos filos ("Empty chair can be a double-edged sword") 4 April 2006 Excélsior. Retrieved on 6 May 2006.
35. ^ Dan como ganador del debate a Calderón ("Calderón seen as the winner of debate") 27 April 2006 Prensa Latina. Retrieved on 6 May 2006.
36. ^ Gana Calderón; Mercado sorprende; pierde López ("Calderón wins, Mercado surprises, López loses") April 26, 2006 La Crónica. Retrieved on 6 May 2006.
37. ^ La opinión de Excélsior en torno al debate ("What Excélsior thinks in regards to the debate") April 26, 2006 Excélsior. Retrieved on 6 May 2006.
38. ^ Confirma Madrazo participación en segundo debate ("Madrazo Confirms Participation in Second Debate") 23 May 2006 El Universal. Retrieved on 2 June 2006
39. ^ "Shooting adds twist to Mexican elections". Retrieved 11 June 2006.
40. ^ ^{a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r} PREP figures give Congressional totals by alliance, not party. PRD totals here thus include Labor and Convergence votes as well
41. ^ ^{a b c d e f g h i j k l m n} PREP figures give Congressional totals by alliance, not party. PRI totals here thus include Green votes as well

External links

• What's at stake in Mexico's election? Socialist Worker
• Preliminary election results, this is a constantly updated count of actual ballots as they are tallied into the electoral system. Not a survey, these are actual results.
• Opinion pieces on the election Link to the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, a think tank that has covered the 2006 presidential elections from Mexico.
• An Analysis of Mexico's Recounted Ballots Issue Brief by the Center for Economic and Policy Research, August 2006.
• Mexico 2006 Panel Study