United States presidential election, 1996


United States presidential election, 1996
United States presidential election, 1996
United States
1992 ←
November 5, 1996
→ 2000

  44 Bill Clinton 3x4.jpg Bob Dole, PCCWW photo portrait.JPG Ross Perot Allan Warren cropped.jpg
Nominee Bill Clinton Bob Dole Ross Perot
Party Democratic Republican Reform
Home state Arkansas Kansas Texas
Running mate Al Gore Jack Kemp Patrick Choate
Electoral vote 379 159 0
States carried 31 + DC 19 0
Popular vote 47,401,185 39,197,469 8,085,294
Percentage 49.2% 40.7% 8.4%

ElectoralCollege1996.svg

Presidential election results map. Red denotes states won by Dole/Kemp, Blue denotes those won by Clinton/Gore.

President before election

Bill Clinton
Democratic

Elected President

Bill Clinton
Democratic

The United States presidential election of 1996 was a contest between the Democratic national ticket of President Bill Clinton of Arkansas and Vice President Al Gore of Tennessee and the Republican national ticket of former Senator Bob Dole of Kansas for President and former Housing Secretary Jack Kemp of New York for Vice President. Businessman Ross Perot ran as candidate for the Reform Party with economist Pat Choate as his running mate; he received less media attention and was excluded from the presidential debates and, while still obtaining substantial results for a third-party candidate, by U.S. standards, did not renew his success of the 1992 election. Clinton benefited from an economy which recovered from the early 1990s recession and a relatively stable world stage. On November 5, 1996,[1] President Clinton went on to win re-election with a substantial margin in the popular vote and electoral college.

Contents

Background

In 1995, the Republican Party was riding high on the gains made in the 1994 congressional elections. In those elections, the Republicans, led by Newt Gingrich, captured the majority of seats in the United States House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years and the majority of seats in the U.S. Senate for the first time in eight years.

Nominations

Democratic Party nomination

Democratic Candidates

Candidates gallery

With the advantage of incumbency, Bill Clinton's path to renomination by the Democratic Party was uneventful. At the 1996 Democratic National Convention, Clinton and incumbent Vice President Al Gore were renominated with token opposition. Incarcerated fringe candidate Lyndon LaRouche won a few Arkansas delegates who were barred from the convention. Jimmy Griffin, former Mayor of Buffalo, New York, mounted a brief campaign but withdrew after a poor showing in the New Hampshire primary. Former Pennsylvania governor Bob Casey contemplated a challenge to Clinton, but health problems forced Casey to abandon a bid.[2][3]

Clinton easily won primaries nationwide, with margins consistently higher than 80%.[4]

Republican Party nomination

Republican Candidates

Candidates gallery

A number of Republican candidates entered the field to challenge the incumbent Democratic President, Bill Clinton.

The fragmented field of candidates debated issues such as a flat tax and other tax cut proposals, and a return to supply-side economic policies popularized by Ronald Reagan. More attention was drawn to the race by the budget stalemate in 1995 between the Congress and the President, which caused temporary shutdowns and slowdowns in many areas of federal government service.

Former U.S. Army General Colin L. Powell was widely courted as a potential Republican nominee. However, on November 8, 1995, Powell announced that he would not seek the nomination. Former Secretary of Defense and future Vice President of the United States Dick Cheney was touted by many as a possible candidate for the presidency, but he declared his intentions not to run in early 1995. Former and future Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld formed a presidential campaign exploratory committee, but declined to formally enter the race.

Primaries and convention

Going into the 1996 primary contest, Senate majority leader and former vice-presidential nominee Bob Dole was seen as the most likely winner. However, in the primaries and caucuses, social conservative Pat Buchanan received early victories in Alaska, Louisiana, a strong second place in the Iowa Caucus, and a surprising victory in the key New Hampshire primary, while Steve Forbes finished first in Delaware and Arizona. This put Dole's leadership in doubt. However, Dole won every primary starting with North and South Dakota, which gave him a lock on the Republican nomination. Dole resigned his Senate seat on June 11. The Republican National Convention formally nominated Dole on August 15, 1996 as the GOP candidate for the fall election.

Popular primaries vote[5]

Convention tally:

VP Selection

Former Congressman and Housing Secretary Jack Kemp was nominated by acclamation as Dole's running mate the following day.

Other politicians mentioned as possible GOP V.P. nominees before Kemp was selected included:

Notable endorsements

Bob Dole

Pat Buchanan

Steve Forbes

Lamar Alexander

W. Phillip Gramm

Pete Wilson

Reform Party nomination

Two Reform candidates entered the field to challenge the incumbent Democratic President, Bill Clinton. They were:

The United States Reform Party nominated party founder Ross Perot of Texas in its first election as an official political party. Although Perot easily won the nomination, his victory at the party's national convention led to a schism, as supporters of his opponent, former Governor Richard Lamm of Colorado, accused him of rigging the vote to prevent them from casting their ballots. This faction walked out of the national convention and eventually formed their own group, the American Reform Party. Economist Pat Choate was nominated for Vice President.

Other nominations

The United States Green Party - Ralph Nader of Connecticut was drafted as a candidate for President of the United States on the Green Party ticket. He was not formally nominated by the Green Party USA, which was, at the time, the largest national Green group; instead he was nominated independently by various state Green parties (in some areas, he appeared on the ballot as an independent). Nader vowed to spend only $5,000 in his election campaign (to avoid having to file a financial statement with the FEC).

The Socialist Party USA nominated Mary Cal Hollis of Colorado and Eric Chester of Massachusetts.

The Libertarian Party nominated free-market writer and investment analyst, Harry Browne of Tennessee, and selected Jo Jorgensen of South Carolina as his running-mate.

The U.S. Taxpayers Party, now known as the Constitution Party, nominated former aide to President Ronald Reagan and Chairman of The Conservative Caucus Howard Phillips for President.

General election

Campaign

Without meaningful primary opposition, Clinton was able to focus on the general election early, while Dole was forced to move to the right and spend his campaign reserves fighting off challengers. Political adviser Dick Morris urged Clinton to raise huge sums of campaign funds via soft money for an unprecedented early TV blitz of swing states promoting Clinton's agenda and record. As a result, Clinton could run a campaign through the summer defining his opponent as an aged conservative far from the mainstream before Dole was in a position to respond. Compared to the 50-year-old Clinton, then 73-year-old Dole appeared especially old and frail, as illustrated by an embarrassing fall off a stage during a campaign event. Dole further enhanced this contrast on September 18 when he made a reference to a no-hitter thrown the day before by Hideo Nomo of the “Brooklyn Dodgers”, a team that had left Brooklyn for Los Angeles four decades earlier. A few days later Dole would make a joke about the remark saying "And I'd like to congratulate the St. Louis Cardinals on winning the N.L. Central. Notice I said the St. Louis Cardinals not the St. Louis Browns." (The Browns had left St. Louis after the 1954 season to become the Baltimore Orioles.)

With respect to the issues, Dole promised a 15% across-the-board reduction in income tax rates and made former Congressman and supply side advocate Jack Kemp his running mate. Bill Clinton framed the narrative against Dole early, painting him as a mere clone of unpopular House Speaker Newt Gingrich, warning America that Bob Dole would work in concert with the Republican Congress to slash popular social programs, like Medicare and Social Security, dubbed by Clinton as "Dole-Gingrich".[11] Bob Dole's tax-cut plan found itself under attack from the White House, who said it would "blow a hole in the deficit" which had been cut nearly in half during his opponent's term.[12]

Throughout the run-up to the general election, Clinton maintained comfortable leads in the polls over Dole and Perot. The televised debates featured only Dole and Clinton, locking out Perot and the other minor candidates from the discussion. Perot, who had been allowed to participate in the 1992 debates, would eventually take his case to court, seeking damages from not being in the debate, as well as citing unfair coverage from the major media outlets.

Campaign donations controversy

In late September 1995, questions arose regarding the Democratic National Committee's fund-raising practices. In February the following year, the People's Republic of China's alleged role in the campaign finance controversy first gained public attention after the Washington Post published a story stating that a U.S. Department of Justice investigation had discovered evidence that agents of China sought to direct contributions from foreign sources to the DNC before the 1996 presidential campaign. The paper wrote that intelligence information had showed the Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C. was used for coordinating contributions to the DNC[13] in violation of U.S. law forbidding non-American citizens from giving monetary donations to U.S. politicians and political parties. Seventeen people were eventually convicted for fraud or for funneling Asian funds into the U.S. elections.

One of the more notable events learned involved Vice President Al Gore and a fund-raising event held at Hsi Lai Temple in Hacienda Heights, California. The Temple event was organized by DNC fund-raisers John Huang and Maria Hsia. It is illegal under U.S. law for religious organizations to donate money to politicians or political groups due to their tax-exempt status. The U.S. Justice Department alleged Hsia facilitated $100,000 in illegal contributions to the 1996 Clinton-Gore re-election campaign through her efforts at the Temple. Hsia was eventually convicted by a jury in March 2000.[14] The DNC eventually returned the money donated by the Temple's monks and nuns. Twelve nuns and employees of the Temple refused to answer questions by pleading the Fifth Amendment when they were subpoenaed to testify before Congress in 1997.[15]

Results

Election results by county.

In the end, President Clinton won a decisive victory over Dole, becoming the first Democrat to win presidential reelection since Franklin Roosevelt. In the popular vote, he outpolled Dole by over 8.2 million votes. The Electoral College map did not change much from the previous election, with the Democratic incumbent winning 379 votes to the Republican ticket's 159. In the West, Dole managed to narrowly win Colorado and Montana (both had voted for Clinton in 1992), while Clinton became the first Democrat to win the state of Arizona since Harry Truman in 1948. In the South, Clinton took Florida-a state which he failed to win in 1992- from the Republicans in exchange for the less electoral-vote-rich Georgia. The election helped to cement Democratic Presidential prospects in states including California, Vermont, Maine, Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Delaware, and Connecticut; all went on to vote Democratic in subsequent Presidential elections, having voted Republican in the three prior to 1992. Those states also voted for Richard Nixon in the 1972 landslide. 1996 marked the first time since the 1944 Presidential contest that New Hampshire voted for a Democrat in two successive elections.

Reform Party nominee Ross Perot won approximately 8% of the popular vote. His vote total was less than half of his performance in 1992. The 1996 national exit poll showed that just as in 1992,[16] Reform Party nominee Ross Perot's supporters drew from Clinton and Dole equally.[17] In polls directed at Perot voters as to who would be a second choice, Clinton consistently held substantial leads.[18]

Although he hailed from Arkansas, Clinton carried just four of the eleven states of the American South, tying his 1992 run for the weakest performance by a winning Democratic presidential candidate in the region before 2000 (in terms of states won). Clinton's performance seems to have been part of a broader decline in support for the Democratic Party in the South. In the 2000 and 2004 elections, the Democrats would fail to carry even one of the Southern states, contributing to their defeat both times. This completed the Republican takeover of the American South, a region in which Democrats had held a near monopoly from 1880 to 1960. However, in 2008, the Democrats were able to win three Southern States, but that was still worse than Clinton's performances in both 1992 and 1996. This was the last election in which a third-party candidate carried over 3% of the national popular vote. Since 1984, no winning Presidential candidate has surpassed Bill Clinton's 8.5 percentage popular vote margin, or his 220 electoral vote margin since 1988. Also note that no Democratic Presidential candidate has surpassed Clinton's 8.5 percentage popular vote margin since 1940 (except 1964), and no Democratic Presidential candidate has surpassed his electoral vote margin since 1964. The election was also notable for the fact that for the first time in U.S. history the winner was elected without winning the male vote and the third time in U.S. history that a candidate was elected President twice without receiving a majority of the popular vote in either election (Grover Cleveland and Woodrow Wilson are the others).[17]

This was the last time the following states voted Democratic: Arizona, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Kentucky, West Virginia and Missouri as of the 2008 election.

Presidential candidate Party Home state Popular vote Electoral
vote
Running mate
Count Pct Vice-presidential candidate Home state Elect. vote
William Jefferson Clinton Democratic(a) Arkansas 47,401,185 49.24% 379 Albert Arnold Gore, Jr. Tennessee 379
Robert Joseph Dole Republican(b) Kansas 39,197,469 40.71% 159 Jack French Kemp New York 159
Henry Ross Perot Reform(c) Texas 8,085,294 8.40% 0 Patrick Jeffrey Choate(d) District of Columbia 0
Ralph Nader Green Connecticut 684,871 0.71% 0 (e)   0
Harry Browne Libertarian Tennessee 485,759 0.50% 0 Jo Jorgensen South Carolina 0
Howard Phillips Taxpayers Virginia 184,656 0.19% 0 Herbert Titus Oregon 0
John Hagelin Natural Law Iowa 113,670 0.12% 0 Michael Tompkins   0
Other(f) 113,667 0.12% Other(f)
Total 96,277,634 100% 538 538
Needed to win 270 270

Official Source (Popular Vote): 1996 Official Presidential General Election Results

Source (popular and electoral vote): Federal Elections Commission Electoral and Popular Vote Summary unofficial Secondary Source (Popular Vote): Leip, David. 1996 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections (August 7, 2005).

Voting age population: 196,498,000

Percent of voting age population casting a vote for President: 49.00%

(a) In New York, the Clinton vote was a fusion of the Democratic and Liberal slates. There, Clinton obtained 3,649,630 votes on the Democratic ticket and 106,547 votes on the Liberal ticket.[19]
(b) In New York, the Dole vote was a fusion of the Republican, Conservative, and Freedom slates. There, Dole obtained 1,738,707 votes on the Republican ticket, 183,392 votes on the Conservative ticket, and 11,393 votes on the Freedom ticket.[19]
(c) In South Carolina, the Perot vote was a fusion of the Reform and Patriot slates. There, Perot obtained 27,464 votes on the Reform ticket and 36,913 votes on the Patriot ticket.[19]
(d) On the California, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Oregon, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas election ballots, James Campbell of California, Perot's former boss at IBM, was listed as a stand-in Vice-Presidential candidate until Perot decided on Pat Choate as his choice for Vice President.
(e) The Green Party vice presidential candidate varied from state to state, giving Nader a total of four running mates.[20] Winona LaDuke was his vice presidential candidate in nineteen of the twenty-two states where he appeared on the ballot. Anne Goeke was Nader's running mate in Iowa[21] and Pennsylvania. Madelyn Hoffman was Nader's running mate in New Jersey.[22] And Muriel Tillinghast was the running mate in New York.[23]
(f) Candidates receiving less than 0.05% of the total popular vote.

Results by state

Bill Clinton
Democratic
Bob Dole
Republican
Ross Perot
Reform
Others State Total
State electoral
votes
#  % electoral
votes
#  % electoral
votes
#  % electoral
votes
#  % electoral
votes
#
Alabama 9 662,165 43.16 - 769,044 50.12 9 92,149 6.01 - 10,991 0.72 - 1,534,349 AL
Alaska 3 78,294 30.29 - 122,746 50.80 3 26,333 10.90 - 12,161 5.03 - 241,620 AK
Arizona 8 653,288 46.52 8 622,073 44.29 - 112,072 7.98 - 16,972 1.21 - 1,404,405 AZ
Arkansas 6 475,171 53.74 6 325,416 36.80 - 69,884 7.90 - 13,791 1.56 - 884,262 AR
California 54 5,119,835 51.10 54 3,828,380 38.21 - 697,847 6.96 - 373,422 3.73 - 10,019,484 CA
Colorado 8 671,152 44.33 - 691,848 45.80 8 99,629 6.59 - 48,075 3.18 - 1,510,704 CO
Connecticut 8 735,740 52.83 8 483,109 34.69 - 139,523 10.02 - 34,242 2.46 - 1,392,614 CT
Delaware 3 140,355 51.80 3 99,062 36.58 - 28,719 10.60 - 2,709 1 - 270,845 DE
D.C. 3 158,220 85.19 3 17,339 9.34 - 3,611 1.94 - 6,556 3.53 - 185,726 DC
Florida 25 2,546,870 48.02 25 2,244,536 42.32 - 483,870 9.12 - 28,518 0.54 - 5,303,794 FL
Georgia 13 1,053,849 45.84 - 1,080,843 47.01 13 146,337 6.37 - 18,042 0.78 - 2,299,071 GA
Hawaii 4 205,012 56.93 4 113,943 31.64 - 27,358 7.60 - 13,807 3.83 - 360,120 HI
Idaho 4 165,443 33.65 - 256,595 52.18 4 62,518 12.71 - 7,163 1.46 - 491,719 ID
Illinois 22 2,341,744 54.32 22 1,587,021 36.81 - 840,515 8.03 - 36,218 0.84 - 4,311,391 IL
Indiana 12 887,424 41.55 - 1,006,693 47.13 12 224,299 10.50 - 17,426 0.82 - 2,135,842 IN
Iowa 7 620,258 50.26 7 492,644 39.92 - 105,159 8.52 - 16,014 1.30 - 1,234,075 IA
Kansas 6 387,659 36.08 - 583,245 54.29 6 92,639 8.62 - 10,757 1 - 1,074,300 KS
Kentucky 8 636,614 45.84 8 623,283 44.88 - 120,396 8.67 - 8,415 0.61 - 1,388,708 KY
Louisiana 9 927,837 52.01 9 712,586 39.94 - 211,478 11.81 - 123,293 6.91 - 1,783,959 LA
Maine 4 312,788 51.62 4 186,378 30.76 - 85,970 14.19 - 20,761 3.43 - 605,897 ME
Maryland 10 966,207 54.25 10 681,530 38.27 - 115,812 6.50 - 17,321 0.97 - 1,780,870 MD
Massachusetts 12 1,571,763 61.47 12 718,107 28.09 - 227,217 8.89 - 39,698 1.55 - 2,556,785 MA
Michigan 18 1,989,653 51.69 18 1,481,212 38.48 - 336,670 8.75 - 41,309 1.07 - 3,848,844 MI
Minnesota 10 1,120,438 51.10 10 766,476 34.96 - 257,704 11.75 - 48,022 2.19 - 2,192,640 MN
Mississippi 7 394,022 44.08 - 439,838 49.21 7 52,222 5.84 - 7,775 0.87 - 893,857 MS
Missouri 11 1,025,935 47.54 11 890,016 41.24 - 217,188 10.06 - 24,926 1.16 - 2,158,065 MO
Montana 3 167,922 41.23 - 179,652 44.11 3 55,229 13.56 - 4,458 1.09 - 410,583 MT
Nebraska 5 236,761 34.95 - 363,467 53.65 5 71,278 10.52 - 5,909 0.87 - 677,415 NE
Nevada 4 203,974 43.93 4 199,244 42.91 - 43,986 9.47 - 17,075 3.68 - 464,279 NV
New Hampshire 4 246,214 49.32 4 196,532 39.37 - 48,390 9.69 - 8,039 1.61 - 499,175 NH
New Jersey 15 1,652,329 53.72 15 1,103,078 35.86 - 262,134 8.52 - 58,266 1.89 - 3,075,807 NJ
New Mexico 5 273,495 49.18 5 232,751 41.86 - 32,257 5.80 - 17,571 3.16 - 556,074 NM
New York 33 3,756,177 59.47 33 1,933,492 30.61 - 503,458 7.97 - 123,002 1.95 - 6,316,129 NY
North Carolina 14 1,107,849 44.04 - 1,225,938 48.73 14 168,059 6.68 - 13,961 0.55 - 2,515,807 NC
North Dakota 3 106,905 40.13 - 125,050 46.94 3 32,515 12.20 - 1,941 0.73 - 266,411 ND
Ohio 21 2,148,222 47.38 21 1,859,883 41.02 - 483,207 10.66 - 43,122 0.95 - 4,534,434 OH
Oklahoma 8 488,105 40.45 - 582,315 48.26 8 130,788 10.84 - 5,505 0.46 - 1,206,713 OK
Oregon 7 649,641 47.15 7 538,152 39.06 - 121,221 8.80 - 68,746 4.99 - 1,377,760 OR
Pennsylvania 23 2,215,819 49.17 23 1,801,169 39.97 - 430,984 9.56 - 58,146 1.29 - 4,506,118 PA
Rhode Island 4 233,050 59.71 4 104,683 26.82 - 43,723 11.20 - 8,828 2.26 - 390,284 RI
South Carolina 8 504,051 43.85 - 573,458 49.89 8 64,386 5.60 - 7,562 0.66 - 1,149,457 SC
South Dakota 3 139,333 43.03 - 150,543 46.49 3 31,250 9.65 - 2,700 0.83 - 323,826 SD
Tennessee 11 909,146 48 11 863,530 45.59 - 105,918 5.59 - 15,511 0.82 - 1,894,105 TN
Texas 32 2,459,683 43.83 - 2,736,167 48.76 - 378,537 6.75 - 37,257 0.66 - 5,611,644 TX
Utah 5 221,633 33.30 - 361,911 54.37 5 66,461 9.98 - 15,624 2.35 - 665,629 UT
Vermont 3 137,894 53.35 3 80,352 31.09 - 31,024 12 - 9,179 3.55 - 258,449 VT
Virginia 13 1,091,060 45.15 - 1,138,350 47.10 13 159,861 6.62 - 27,371 1.13 - 2,416,642 VA
Washington 11 1,123,323 49.84 11 840,712 37.30 - 201,003 8.92 - 88,799 3.94 - 2,253,837 WA
West Virginia 5 327,812 51.51 5 233,946 36.76 - 71,639 11.26 - 3,062 0.48 - 636,459 WV
Wisconsin 11 1,071,971 48.81 11 845,029 38.48 - 227,339 10.35 - 51,830 2.36 - 2,196,169 WI
Wyoming 3 77,934 36.84 - 105,388 49.81 3 25,928 12.25 - 2,321 1.10 - 211,571 WY
TOTALS: 538 47,401,185 49.24 379 39,197,469 40.71 159 8,085,294 8.40 - 1,591,119 1.65 - 96,275,401

[24]

Close states

States where margin of victory < 5%

  1. Kentucky, 0.96%
  2. Nevada, 1.02%
  3. Georgia, 1.17%
  4. Colorado, 1.37%
  5. Virginia, 1.96%
  6. Arizona, 2.22%
  7. Tennessee, 2.41%
  8. Montana, 2.88%
  9. South Dakota, 3.46%
  10. North Carolina, 4.69%
  11. Texas, 4.93%

States where margin of victory > 5% but < 10

  1. Mississippi, 5.13%
  2. Indiana, 5.58%
  3. Florida, 5.70%
  4. South Carolina, 6.04%
  5. Missouri, 6.30%
  6. Ohio, 6.36%
  7. North Dakota, 6.81%
  8. Alabama, 6.96%
  9. New Mexico, 7.32%
  10. Oklahoma, 7.81%
  11. Oregon, 8.09%
  12. Pennsylvania, 9.20%
  13. New Hampshire, 9.95%

Source: David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections- County Data

Voter demographics

The Presidential vote in social groups (percentages)
Social group Clinton Dole Perot  % of
total vote
Total vote 49 41 8 100
Party and ideology
Liberal Republicans 44 48 9 2
Moderate Republicans 20 72 7 13
Conservative Republicans 6 88 5 21
Liberal independents 58 15 18 4
Moderate independents 50 30 17 15
Conservative independents 19 60 19 7
Liberal Democrats 89 5 4 13
Moderate Democrats 84 10 5 20
Conservative Democrats 69 23 7 6
Gender and marital status
Married men 40 48 10 33
Married women 63 28 7 33
Unmarried men 49 35 12 15
Unmarried women 62 28 7 20
Race
White 43 46 9 83
Black 84 12 4 10
Hispanic 72 21 6 5
Asian 43 48 8 1
Religion
White Protestant 36 53 10 46
Catholic 53 37 9 29
Jewish 78 16 3 3
Born again/religious right 26 65 8 17
Age
18–29 years old 53 34 10 17
30–44 years old 48 41 9 33
45–59 years old 48 41 9 26
60 and older 48 44 7 24
Education
Not a high school graduate 59 28 11 6
High school graduate 51 35 13 24
Some college education 48 40 10 27
College graduate 44 46 8 26
Postgraduate education 52 40 5 17
Family income
Under $15,000 59 28 11 11
$15,000–$29,999 53 36 9 23
$30,000–$49,999 48 40 10 27
Over $50,000 44 48 7 39
Over $75,000 41 51 7 18
Over $100,000 38 54 6 9
Region
East 55 34 9 23
Midwest 48 41 10 26
South 46 46 7 30
West 48 40 8 20
Community size
Population over 500,000 68 25 6 10
Population 50,000 to 500,000 50 39 8 21
Suburbs 47 42 8 39
Rural areas, towns 45 44 10 30

Source: Voter News Service exit poll, reported in The New York Times, November 10, 1996, 28.

Polling controversy

Some post-election debate focused on the alleged flaws in the pre-election polls, almost all of which overstated Clinton's lead over Dole, some by a substantial margin. For example, a CBS/New York Times poll overstated Clinton's lead by 10 points despite having an error margin of 2.4%. The odds against this sort of error occurring were 15,000:1.[25] A less extreme example was a Pew poll which overstated Clinton's lead by 5 points, the chances of this happening were 10:1 against.[25] Gerald Wasserman, having examined eight pre-election polls, argued that pure chance would produce such a skewed result in favor of Clinton only once in 4,900 elections.[26] However, because Clinton won the election by a comfortable margain,[27] there was no major reaction towards the inaccuracy of the polls.[27] The polls were also less inaccurate than the overwhelming majority of those taken in 1948,[27] which predicted that losing candidate Thomas Dewey would beat President Harry Truman by a comfortable margain,[27] and in 1980, which predicted that Reagan would win without a landslide victory.[27]

References

  1. ^ "Election Dates". Uselectionatlas.org. http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/INFORMATION/dates.php. Retrieved 2010-06-17. 
  2. ^ "Anyone left? The search for a Clinton challenger in 1996.". The Progressive. TheFreeLibrary.com. May 1, 1995. http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Anyone+left%3F+The+search+for+a+Clinton+challenger+in+1996.-a016914424. Retrieved December 6, 2010. 
  3. ^ Newton-Small, Jay (November 24, 2009). "Can a Pro-Life Dem Bridge the Health-Care Divide?". Time. http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1942614,00.html. Retrieved December 6, 2010. 
  4. ^ "US President - D Primaries Race - Feb 01, 1996". Our Campaigns. http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55214. Retrieved 2010-06-17. 
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m "US President – R Primaries Race – July 7, 1996". Our Campaigns.com. http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=13494. Retrieved 2008-03-10. 
  6. ^ "AZ US President - R Primary Race - Feb 27, 1996". Our Campaigns. http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=36285. Retrieved 2010-06-17. 
  7. ^ "DE US President - R Primary Race - Feb 24, 1996". Our Campaigns. http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=36304. Retrieved 2010-06-17. 
  8. ^ "Candidate - George Corley Wallace". Our Campaigns. http://www.ourcampaigns.com/CandidateDetail.html?CandidateID=4038. Retrieved 2010-06-17. 
  9. ^ "LA US President - R Primary Race - Mar 12, 1996". Our Campaigns. http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=36320. Retrieved 2010-06-17. 
  10. ^ "Dole wins both Dakotas, but is lagging in Arizona." Toledo Blade. February 28, 1996. Accessed December 2, 2009. Final paragraph: Mr. Mecham is supporting Buchanan "all the way," and he still has an effective organization in the state.
  11. ^ Berke, Richard L. (October 7, 1996). "Clinton And Dole, Face To Face, Spar Over Medicare And Taxes". The New York Times. http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9507E2DC1F3FF934A35753C1A960958260. Retrieved May 26, 2010. 
  12. ^ "09/02/96 MEDICARE, TAXES, AND BOB DOLE: A TALK WITH THE PRESIDENT". Businessweek.com. 1997-06-14. http://www.businessweek.com/1996/36/b34915.htm. Retrieved 2010-06-17. 
  13. ^ Woodward, Bob and Duffy, Brian, "Chinese Embassy Role In Contributions Probed", Washington Post, February 13, 1997
  14. ^ Eskenazi, Michael, "For both Gore and GOP, a guilty verdict to watch", CNN.com, March 3, 2000
  15. ^ Abse, Nathan, "A Look at the 94 Who Aren't Talking", Washington Post, June 9, 1998
  16. ^ Holmes, Steven A. (November 5, 1992). "THE 1992 ELECTIONS: DISAPPOINTMENT -- NEWS ANALYSIS An Eccentric but No Joke; Perot's Strong Showing Raises Questions On What Might Have Been, and Might Be". The New York Times. http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE0DB1F3FF936A35752C1A964958260. Retrieved May 26, 2010. 
  17. ^ a b Presidential Election Exit Poll http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/elections/natl.exit.poll/index1.html
  18. ^ 1996 Election Tracking Polls http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/polls/cnn.usa.gallup/tracking/
  19. ^ a b c "'96 Presidential and Congressional Election Statistics". Official website of the Office of the Clerk of the House of Representatives. Archived from the original on January 26, 2006. http://web.archive.org/web/20060126213548/http://clerk.house.gov/members/electionInfo/1996/96Stat.htm. Retrieved February 17, 2006. 
  20. ^ Pollitt, Katha; readers of The Nation (April 10, 2000). "Saint Ralph and the Dragon". The Nation. http://www.thenation.com/doc/20000410/exchange. [dead link]
  21. ^ "November 12, 1996" (PDF). Minutes of the Meetings of the Board of Supervisors. Cerro Gordo County. 1996. http://www.co.cerro-gordo.ia.us/1996Minutes/November%2012,%201996.pdf. Retrieved March 30, 2006. 
  22. ^ Fernandez, Sonia (2000-02-22). "Nader '55 to run for president". The Daily Princetonian (Daily Princetonian Publishing Company, Inc). http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/archives/2000/02/22/news/234.shtml. Retrieved 2006-03-30. 
  23. ^ "Electors of President and Vice President". Cattaraugus County: Board of Elections: 1996 Election Results. Cattaraugus County, New York State. http://www.co.cattaraugus.ny.us/election_board/past-elections/1996/presandvp.html. Retrieved March 30, 2006. 
  24. ^ http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=1996&datatype=national&def=1&f=0&off=0&elect=0
  25. ^ a b "Polls". .psych.purdue.edu. http://www2.psych.purdue.edu/~codelab/PollOdds.Table.html. Retrieved 2010-06-17. 
  26. ^ "Were The Polls Right?". .psych.purdue.edu. http://www2.psych.purdue.edu/~codelab/PollOdds.html. Retrieved 2010-06-17. 
  27. ^ a b c d e http://www.jstor.org/pss/2749624

Further reading

Books

  • Laurence W. Moreland and Robert P. Steed, eds., ed (1997). The 1996 Presidential Election in the South: Southern Party Systems in the 1990s. ISBN 0275959511. 
  • Ceaser, James W.; Andrew E. Busch (1997). Losing to Win: The 1996 Elections and American Politics. ISBN 0847684059. 
  • Clinton, Bill (2005). My Life. Vintage. ISBN 1-4000-3003-X. 
  • Green, John C. (1999). Financing the 1996 Election. ISBN 0585260141. 
  • Pomper, Gerald M.; et al. (1997). The Election of 1996: Reports and Interpretations. ISBN 0585224579. 

Journals

  • Jelen, Ted G.; Marthe Chandler (2000). "Culture Wars in the Trenches: Social Issues as Short-Term Forces in Presidential Elections, 1968–1996". The American Review of Politics 21: 69–87. 

Web references

External links


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